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Las Vegas Vacation
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ray Flowers
Posted 9/2/2010 8:18 PM
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I'm making no bones about it today. It's on.
I don't mean the light switch.
I don't mean the television.
I mean --- Vegas Baby!
That's right, I'm headed to Las Vegas this weekend to help host the National Fantasy Football Championship. That's right. It's gonna be a weekend of blackjack, booze, pretty ladies, booze (did I already say that? In case you worry about the booze ankle, don't. At the bottom of the piece you can see a photo of a drink I picked up at Paris last time I was there, and no, that isn't a notebook, its a full sized 15.4 inch laptop computer), and fantasy football. I know, you all wish you were me don't you? Maybe you'd change your mind if you heard I had to leave my house at 5 AM to catch a flight at the airport? You're right, you could care less if you were going to Vegas, on your companies dime, to have a good time. Come to think of if, I am pretty luck aren't I?
For those of you worried that I won't be back in time to do our radio show, you can take a breath, I will be there. Now it's a totally different question as to whether or not I will be able to offer any usable advice being that I might still be hungover, but I will still be there. For those of you who want more information about the show you can visit the website for The Fanball Fantasy Drive. For an off the cuff rundown of my thoughts on the show, and what it was like to do the first one, don't forget to read I'm a Star.
OK, I'll also give some actual analysis here as well. After all, that is likely why you are here, not to hear me wax philosophically about how fortunate I am to have this great life (though I don't mind sharing it with you anyway).
For those of you that don't know, I'm multi-talented (again with the it's all about me stuff). Therefore, here are links to three articles I've written in the past couple of days that cover three of the four major professional sports (sorry basketball).
Those that know me know that I love numbers, and each week a delve into some of the more interesting numbers in the world of baseball in my By The Numbers piece.
The San Jose Sharks signed goalie Antti Niemi to a one year deal worth $2 million. How does the move simultaneously strengthen the Sharks while weakening the Blackhawks? It's obvious if you are a hockey fan.
Why is everyone quarterback crazy in fantasy football? I attempt to lay out a convincing case that you should avoid taking a QB early and instead focus on the running back and wide receiver positions.
I'm off to Vegas. I'll let you know how it went when I get back.
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Around the Horn: September 1, 2010
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ray Flowers
Posted 9/1/2010 7:40 PM
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(1) Josh Hamilton out of lineup with knee injury.
(2) Alex Rodriguez likely to return on Sunday.
(3) Ray's call up Jeremy Hellickson and Desmond Jennings.
(4) Ian Kinsler (groin), Lance Berkman (knee) back off DL.
(5) Yovani Gallardo says he is OK despite awful results.
(6) Jason Kendall needs shoulder surgery.
To view/hear my thoughts on all the players mentioned above click on the link to Around the Horn, September 1.
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Three's Company
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ray Flowers
Posted 8/31/2010 2:49 PM
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I'm going to hit on three topics today. First, I'll discuss the move of Manny to the White Sox. I'll then break down why I think there are two full fledged aces with the Phillies though many only see one (Roy Halladay). Finally, I'll play a little game of "Who am I?' with you to see if you can guess which pitcher I'm talking about.
Manny to Be Manny in Chi-Town
Manny Ramirez is an amazing hitter. In fact, he is likely one of the 10 best right-handed hitters that the game has ever seen. Just look at how he stacks up historically amongst righties (minimum 3,000 plate appearances).
4th with 1,120 extra bass hits
8th with 554 home runs
6th with 1,828 RBI
8th with a .411 OBP
5th with a 1.000 OPS
Those are some mighty impressive numbers indeed. He's also been pretty darn effective this season as well, albeit in limited work because he just can't see to get, and then stay, healthy. Still, he is hitting .311 - just two points below his career rate - while his .405 OBP is six a points down. Mere mortals would be enthralled if the back of their baseball card had a season with an .915 OPS, but for Manny that is a disappointing total considering that his OPS has been under .949 only one time since 1995. The guy can still hit, and he should offer the White Sox a tremendous boost as a middle of the order thumper - provided his calf is healthy. If you are in an AL-only league dump whatever remaining FAAB dollars you have to acquire the aloof yet stupendous gifted slugger in his return to the AL.
Cole Hamels is Pitching Very Well
Has anyone noticed just how well Hamels is hurling of late? I kind of doubt it because all anyone seems to see is that pathetic 8-10 win-loss record. Much like Felix Hernandez who is a mere 10-10, Hamels has actually pitched very well this season, particularly as the summer has dragged on. Here is what you should know but may have overlooked.
On the year Hamels has a 3.31 ERA which is better than Francisco Liriano (3.41), Ryan Dempster (3.42) and Yovani Gallardo (3.50) to name a few.
On the year Hamels has a 1.20 WHIP which is better than Zack Greinke (1.21), CC Sabathia (1.23) and David Price (1.26) to name a few.
On the year Hamels has 176 strikeouts which are more than any lefty in baseball not named Clayton Kershaw (180) or Jon Lester (176).
Moreover, Hamels has pitched wonderfully the past month an a half since the All-Star break. Here are his numbers over his nine starts.
2.47 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.01 K/9, 6.27 K/BB
If you pitch like that over the course of a season they call you the Cy Young Award winner, so how in the world is he just 1-3 in that time? Man that Phillies offense has been a letdown this season.
Who Am I?
I'm a really good pitcher, but no one seems to notice. Here are some facts to help make clear just how good I've been this year.
I own a 3.39 ERA over 162 innings. It's not really odd that I'm posting such a strong number. After all I have a career mark of 3.62.
I currently have a WHIP of 1.19. Again, it's not at all surprising to me considering that my career mark is the same - 1.19.
I currently have a 3.28 K/BB mark that is 20th best in baseball.
Any idea who I might be?
No, I'm not Francisco Liriano, Ryan Dempster or Johnny Cueto. I'm also not Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt or CC Sabathia. Who am I?
I pitch for the Dodgers.
I've been in the United States for three years.
My name rhymes with Hiroki Kuroda.
Wait, that is my name.
Will someone please show me some respect?
Arigatou
(Thank you in Japanese)
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Around the Horn: August 30, 2010
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ray Flowers
Posted 8/30/2010 7:22 PM
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(1) Aroldis Chapman to be called up on Tuesday.
(2) Manny Ramirez officially a White Sox player.
(3) Colby Rasmus (calf) back in the lineup.
(4) Nelson Cruz (hamstring) back from DL.
(5) Freddy Sanchez super hot at dish.
(6) Jose Tabata impressing with Pirates.
(7) Carlos Lee finally hitting his stride.
(8) Daniel Hudson a star for D'backs.
To view/hear my thoughts on all the players mentioned above click on the link to Around the Horn, August 30.
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Pitching on Trial
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ray Flowers
Posted 8/27/2010 5:22 PM
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The mighty has fallen. It may not be as depressing as the fact that the house you bought for $300,000 dollars two years ago might sell for $225,000 today, but in fantasy circles the loss was just as severe. Stephen Strasburg suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament, and what that means is that there is an exceedingly high probability that he will undergo Tommy John surgery. I already wrote about the ramifications of this situation in Five Questions: Is Strasburg Finished?, but I wanted to expand on something I only briefly mentioned in that piece - and that is the way that organizations baby their pitchers. Is there any benefit to this recent practice?
It has become a comical situation really. Teams are so worried about protecting their investments that they treat them as if they were made out of paper mache. In fact, the level of injury in today's pitcher seems to be much higher than it was in years past despite the advent of advanced physical training and medical proficiency. How is it that guys who are bigger, stronger, more reliably trained, and more closely watched than ever before break down more quickly than at any point in the past? I just don't get it.
In the case of the Nationals, the team counted everything Strasburg did with the attention of an auditor from the government who is trying to extract every penny from your wallet. They never let him toss more than 99 pitches in a big league game, and only twice was he allowed to log even seven innings in an outing. A lot of good that all that monitoring did for Mr. Strasburg.
At the other end of the spectrum we have his teammate, Livan Hernandez, who has never missed a buffet in his life - yet he continues to roll on basically injury free. Listed as 35 years old, he might actually be 40 for all we know, Livan continues to rack up innings year after year, and he's now 11 innings from 13th straight season of at least 180-innings. Is Livan simply gifted with a "rubber" arm? Was he genetically predisposed to never have a serious arm problem? Has he avoided injury because his career average for a fastball is a mere 85 mph? I mean after all, Strasburg's average change-up this season was 89.7 mph.
I have no idea what the answers are to these questions. All I know is that time after time we are smacked in the face by the fact that even though we think we have it figured out, we actually have no clue.
Strasburg had his innings pitched totals limited - almost obnoxiously so. Strasburg had hid pitch total managed fastidiously as well. Yet here we are with a torn tendon and the inevitable surgery.
Perhaps the truth is that human beings simply aren't meant to throw a baseball over an over again at such speeds. There were hurlers in the past who could rush it up there in the high 90's, guys like Walter Johnson, Bob Feller, Nolan Ryan and J.R. Richard obviously come to mind, but there is no disputing the fact that today there are more pitchers than ever capable of tossing the old ball at speeds in excess of 95 mph. As training methods have improved, pitchers are able to get more out of their body than ever before, but perhaps we've gotten to the point that we have taxed the human body so excessively that sooner or later, like a taught rubber band, there will be an inevitable snap back.
If you ask me here is the simply truth - each man has a certain amount of bullets in his gun. It doesn't matter if he stands 5'11" or 6'6", it doesn't matter if he weighs 165 lbs or 250, and it doesn't matter if he throws 87 or 97 mph. Sooner or later everyone's arm goes, and for every Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine we have a Francisco Liriano and a Stephen Strasburg. The real issue here isn't training methods or velocity as much as it should be a realization that sooner or later all pitchers have to pay the price for the fame and fortune they attain.
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Around the Horn: August 26, 2010
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ray Flowers
Posted 8/26/2010 7:04 PM
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(1) Dustin Pedroia (knee) likely done for year.
(2) Ricky Nolasco to pitch through torn meniscus in knee.
(3) Jordan Zimmerman is back. Will Stephen Strasburg return?
(4) Manny Ramirez on waivers - Rangers, Rays, White Sox interested.
(5) Brad Hawpe drawing interest from Red Sox, Rays and Rangers.
(6) Jason Bay (concussion) - no updates.
(7) Jonathan Broxton still in setup role.
To view/hear my thoughts on all the players mentioned above click on the link to Around the Horn, August 26.
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Random Thoughts
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ray Flowers
Posted 8/25/2010 3:43 PM
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I felt like doing some random commentary today so what follows, in no particular order, follows that line of thought. - or better yet no line of thought.
I wrote about Andres Torres today in an IMPACT REPORT on Wednesday. I got a very well thought out email from a reader today which pointed out that sometimes guys get labeled as one thing (organizational depth) and never have a chance to bust out from that mold. I certainly agree, but I'm still sticking by what I said in the piece that I'm just not sold that he will be able to sustain his growth this season moving forward. One other little known fact - Torres uses the biggest bat on the Giants (35 inches, 33 ounces). Not bad for a guy who barely checks in at 190 lbs.
Yesterday I wrote about how Albert Pujols has a good chance to win the Triple Crown this season. However, as I was thinking about things today, I was struck by something rather amazing. As great as Pujols has been, and you can make the argument that no player has ever had a better 10-year run to start their career in the history of the game, it's utterly amazing to think the following:
Albert Pujols has only led the league in average once (.359 in 2003).
Albert Pujols has only lead the league in homers once (47 last year).
Albert Pujols has NEVER led the league in RBI.
Isn't that amazing? That means that Pujols has only led in the Triple Crown categories twice in his career. Hell, Dante Bichette pulled off that trick in 1995 when he led the NL in homers (40) and RBI (128).
Have you seen Madison Bumgarner in person? That is one big boy. Listed at 6'4", 215 lbs, he is every bit of that. He might still get bigger too. The kid is only 21 years old (he reached that age just over three weeks ago). Don't know how he gave up three first inning homers to the Reds on Wednesday though. Despite the rough outing, he still has an extremely bright future, and with his loose arm action I'm looking at him as a potentially dominating ace on the hill now that his fastball is back in the 93-94 mph range.
The last 30 days Garrett Jones is hitting .165, the worst mark in baseball, just ahead of the .170 total posted by Felipe Lopez. If you add up those two marks you end up at .335 which is a mere .121 points worse than the .456 mark of Joe Mauer. The previously mentioned Mr. Pujols leads the NL with a .398 mark.
Joey Votto is here to stay as a top fantasy option, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise. The man has a smooth stroke and isn't afraid to go the other way. He should be a .300 hitter with 30 homers for years to come.
Brennan Boesch has scored four runs the past 30 days despite coming to the plate 104 times. That's putrid.
I know Jose Bautista has gone deep 40 times, and dating back to last season he has 50 homers in his last 154 games, but are you buying this power surge? After all, the guy hit just 43 homers the past three years over 1,238 at-bats. So again, are you buying this? I put the over/under on his homer total at 31 for 2010.
Homer Bailey is still just 24 years old. Who knew?
Shin-Soo Choo is hitting .291 with 15 homers, 60 RBI, 59 runs and 15 steals despite spending some time on the DL this season. While that level of offensive production may not sound overwhelming, it should be pointed out that he is one of only four men in the game who are hitting .290 with at least 15 homers and 15 steals. The others are Carlos Gonzalez, David Wright and Evan Longoria.
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Did You Know?
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ray Flowers
Posted 8/24/2010 3:00 PM
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Did you know that I'm tall (6'3")? Did you know that I wear size 13 shoes? Did you know that I have a rule that I don't get up before the sun? I know that isn't the type of did you know that you were planning to read, so before I lull you into a semi-comatose state with more mundane "Ray facts" let's get to the meat of this piece.
Mike Napoli leads all catchers with 20 homers. Only 12 of those bombs have come as a catcher, eight have come as a first basemen, but you get the point. Moreover, the 20 homers from a catcher eligible player are more than the combined total of Buster Posey (nine) and Joe Mauer (eight) who are hitting a combined .335.
Albert Pujols is pushing for the NL Triple Crown with a .319 average (third - Joey Votto leads the league at .323), 33 homers (first) and 92 RBI (first). He's also second in the league in OPS at 1.013 (two percentage points behind Votto). But did you know... Albert Pujols also leads all first basemen in the game with 12 steals. And he's having a down season?
There isn't a single second basemen, who qualifies for the batting title, who has an OBP of .400 as Robinson Cano has a .390 mark. Can also leads the position with a .326 batting average, a .568 SLG, a .958 OPS, 35 doubles and 87 RBI. Yeah, Cano has been pretty good, which is kinda like saying that Adrianna Lima is hot.
Casey McGehee has been insanely good given his draft day cost. McGehee has hit 20 homers this season which just so happens to be one less than Alex Rodriguez. Moreover, McGehee has more homers than a litany of fantasy stars at the hot corner; Michael Young (19), Kevin Youkilis (19), David Wright (19), Aramis Ramirez (19) and Evan Longoria (18). Casey's total of 82 RBI is also more than Wright (81), Mark Reynolds (71), Young (70), Ryan Zimmerman (70).
Yunieksy Betancourt has more RBI (61) than any shortstop in the American League. Read that again to make sure you've got it. For that matter, any idea who leads NL shortstops in RBI? In another minor miracle, it's Juan Uribe (66). Let's keep building on the craziness. I haven't even mentioned the man who leads all shortstops in RBI - Alex Gonzalez who has 70. He had 50 as a member of the Blue Jays and 20 as a member of the Braves.
Brennan Boesch hit .342 with 12 homers and a .990 OPS in 65 games before the All-Star break. Since that point he has played 37 games and he his hit a sickly .145 with two homers and a .429 OPS. Think about that. He has literally been less than half the player he was in the first half.
Juan Pierre has 49 steals leaving him one short of a fifth season of at least 50 thefts. Since he began his career in 2000, there are only two men that can rival that level of production. Jose Reyes has four 50-steal seasons in that time whereas Carl Crawford has five 50-steal efforts. Mr. Crawford needs nine more steals this season to push his career mark to six 50-steal seasons.
The Giants' Andres Torres is having a special season. Amongst players who qualify as a right fielder, Torres is sixth in OPS (.866), sixth in OBP (.370) and seventh in SLG (.499). Torres also has scored 71 runs - one more than Justin Upton - and his total of 23 steals makes him one of only five qualifiers at the position with at least 20 (Ichiro Suzuki, Angel Pagan, Will Venable and Ben Zobrist).
Everyone has been talking about Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson, but has anyone noticed who is leading the AL in ERA this season with a 2.26 mark? The answer is none other than Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox. Clay hasn't given up an earned run in his last three starts, and five times in his last nine trips to the hill he has emerged unscathed. Not bad for a guy who entered the year with a grand total of 36 games under his belt.
Not many have taken notice, but Neftali Feliz is about to make history. After tossing a total of 31 innings last season, Neftali still qualifies for the AL Rookie of the Year award. If that isn't cool enough, how about the fact that he is a mere seven saves from setting an all-time rookie record. The current mark is 37 held by Kaz Sasaki. Of course, Sasaki was 32 years old when he came to the States after a career of success in Japan, so that number really shouldn't count - at least in this scribes book.
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Around the Horn: August 23, 2010
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ray Flowers
Posted 8/23/2010 7:25 PM
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(1) Stephen Strasburg headed to DL on Thursday with strained flexor tendon.
(2) Giants awarded Cody Ross. You can also read more about the Giaints' outfield situation at GoldenGateGiants.com.
(3) Johnny Damon awarded to the Red Sox.
(4) Manny Ramirez likely to be placed on waivers this week.
(5) Ricky Nolasco (knee) might be done for the year.
To view/hear my thoughts on all the players mentioned above click on the link to Around the Horn, August 23.
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Around the Horn: August 20, 2010
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ray Flowers
Posted 8/20/2010 6:50 PM
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(1) Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann to return next week.
(2) Rich Harden to start on Monday for Rangers.
(3) Conor Jackson back on DL.
(4) Is Jason Bay (concussion) done for the year?
(5) Cody Ross claimed off waivers.
(6) Ronny Paulino reportedly suspended 50 games.
(7) Carlos Gonzalez (knee) hopes to avoid DL.
To view/hear my thoughts on all the players mentioned above click on the link to Around the Horn, August 20.
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