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Top-10 3B for 2011
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ted Carlson
Posted 9/2/2010 2:00 PM
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How does the hot corner look for 2011? Here is my early look at the top-10 third basemen for the next fantasy baseball season:
1) David Wright, Mets
It would be nice if Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes could stay healthy and help out this five-cat contributor. Wright had a terrible August, and he hasn't sewn up this top spot.
2) Evan Longoria, Rays
The homers are down, but he is hitting .296 and has flashed some wheels (15 steals). Longoria is still just 24 and will challenge Wright for the No. 1 spot on 2011 3B boards.
3) Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
Injuries are becoming a more consistent concern and the numbers are down this season, but I'm not ready to bury him yet. A-Rod will be the subject of much debate heading into 2011.
4) Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
I hope the Nats find a way to keep Adam Dunn because Zimmerman has been a steady four-cat machine with the slugger behind him in the lineup.
5) Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
Too low? From Sept. 1, 2009 through Aug. 31, 2010, Bautista hit .266-53-124-112 over 161 games.
6) Michael Young, Rangers
Yes, Young is a little old and a little boring, but he is a consistent .300, 20-homer hitter who will continue to operate in an elite offense. There is nothing wrong with taking the easy money over higher upside.
7) Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
He could end up with a second straight season of 40 homers and 100 RBI, but he stopped running and carries and unpredictable batting average. If you love risk, feel free to move him up.
8) Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
The injuries (and subsequent excuses) are beginning to pile up, but A-Ram is also hitting .305-14-46 in 51 games since the start of July. Bargain pick for 2011?
9) Adrian Beltre, Red Sox
The ideal scenario is that he exercises the 2011 player option with the Sox, which would mean he stays in Boston and is still playing for a long-term deal. He is likely to regress back to the .275 range in 2011, but the power remains (mostly) legit.
10) Pablo Sandoval, Giants
He is coming to back to life with a .312-6-16 line over 28 games in August. I know most fantasy owners are still angry about Pablo's poor campaign, but he is only 24. I'm feeling generous, for now.
(Note 1: Kevin Youkilis will no longer qualify at 3B in 2011)
(Note 2: Martin Prado may qualify at 3B, but I didn't list him here because he obviously has more value at 2B)
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Top-10 2B for 2011
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ted Carlson
Posted 8/30/2010 1:57 PM
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My look ahead to the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings has covered catchers and first baseman, and it's time to shift over to second base, where we appear to have a new king.
1) Robinson Cano, Yankees
He could boast a .320-30-110-110 line by the end of this season, and Cano turns 28 this October. No, he doesn't steal bases, but I don't care when the other four cats are so excellent.
2) Chase Utley, Phillies
Injuries are beginning to become a more regular occurrence, and his OPS has fallen from .976 to .915 to .905 to .811 over the past four seasons. Overall, he'll probably drop from his typical top-five spot down into the top-15 or top-20 range.
3) Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
Prior to the foot fracture, Pedroia was on pace for roughly .290-25-80-110-20. The gamer is also just 27. I know some people prefer the upside of a guy like Kinsler, but I'm a Pedroia fan.
4) Ian Kinsler, Rangers
He played his first full pro season in 2004, and he logged 130, 131, 130, 133, 121, and 146 games in the years prior to 2010. Will he ever stay healthy for 150? 160? I can't deny the five-cat potential, but injuries keep his value down a little bit.
5) Dan Uggla, Marlins
Uggla might end up with nearly as much value as Cano this season, and he is on pace to set career highs in homers, RBI and average. Love the power and runs; still can't trust the batting average.
6) Brandon Phillips, Reds
The RBI are way, way down because Phillips has spent most of this season hitting first or second in the order. His steals (14) are also off. but he is hitting .290 and ranks second in the NL in runs (91). He may seem a little boring to some, but I see him as a steady, solid fantasy asset.
7) Rickie Weeks, Brewers
The numbers say "yes," but my gut still says "be wary." We've spent half of a decade waiting for Rickie to stay healthy and show his skills, but where are the steals (8)? Might those come back in 2011?
8) Brian Roberts, Orioles
Views will surely range from "He's done" to "Prime Rebound Candidate" for 2011, and I'm leaning slightly towards the latter. You always need to worry about guys with bad backs, but Roberts shouldn't be cooked quite yet.
9) Martin Prado, Braves
I'm sold on the .300-plus average and the double-digit pop. Prado may still feel a little boring, but there is something comforting about finding solid production at a weak middle infield spot.
10) Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
His BABIP won't be .200 again in 2011. It's that simple, really. Hill may still finish with 25 homers in a down year, and I see no reason why he can't rebound to at least .270 next year.
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Top-10 1B for 2011
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ted Carlson
Posted 8/27/2010 2:50 PM
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Following up on my Top-10 Catchers for 2011 entry, I'm moving along to first base. As should be obvious to readers, we still have a ton of time between now and next spring, but it never hurts to get an early jump on next season's list.
1) Albert Pujols, Cardinals
Duh.
2) Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
Mini-Albert is boasts a career-best .340 average and is on pace to score 100 runs for the first time since 2006. Oh, and he is still just 27.
3) Joey Votto, Reds
Did you notice that he has chipped in 11 steals along with his Triple Crown-contending digits? He turns 27 in September and is primed for a long run of success.
4) Ryan Howard, Phillies
The homer and RBI paces were off before the ankle injury, his OPS is down to a mere .850, and we might be on the other side of his peak. That said, Howard will likely still carry first-round value in 2011.
5) Mark Teixeira, Yankees
Down season still has him on pace for 120 runs, 36 homers, and 116 RBI. He is going to finish with his lowest average since his rookie season, but does anyone doubt that he will bounce back to .280-.300 in 2011?
(Side note: I believe there could and should be a strong debate about Votto, Howard and Teixeira, but this isn't the time or place. This is the order that I'm feeling right now, but the rankings are tighter than Rex Ryan in spandex)
6) Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
If the Padres trade him this winter, he'll move up to No. 3. Seriously. The dude absolutely kills the ball when he's away from PETCO.
7) Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
Only 136 games last season and 102 contests this campaign. And he has never reached 150 games in a single season. The dude can rake, but the injury concerns are
well, concerns.
8) Prince Fielder, Brewers
Do the Brewers deal him? Does he sign a new deal? If so, do those moves help? I have more questions than answers, but we've all seen what the 26-year-old slugger is capable of.
9) Justin Morneau, Twins
Yes, I'm a Twins fan and showing a bit of favoritism here, but Morneau is easily a top-10 option when he is healthy. This lingering concussion is very worrisome, but I figure he'll be ready by next spring, right? Right?!?
10) Kendry Morales, Angels
He'll need to prove that his leg is safe and sound, but Morales is in his prime and should make a triumphant return in 2011.
(Knocking on the door: Paul Konerko)
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Top-10 Catchers for 2011
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ted Carlson
Posted 8/24/2010 1:42 PM
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We still have nearly six weeks left in the 2010 MLB regular season, but I'm already starting to think about my 2011 rankings. Obviously a lot can and will happen between now and next February, but here are my top-10 2011 catchers as we sit in late August:
1) Joe Mauer, Twins
Complain about the lack of HRs if you want, but he is hitting .330 and leads all catchers in runs (74, second place is 53) and RBI (66).
2) Brian McCann, Braves
He is off his typical average and RBI paces, but he is still just 26 and can place some of the blame on his vision problems. I'll still bank on at least .285-20-85-60 next year.
3) Victor Martinez, Red Sox
The bum thumb absorbs some of the blame, as he has only one homer since the start of July. There is some shakiness in this ranking, but a healthy V-Mart in the middle of healthy Red Sox lineup is still a major asset.
4) Carlos Santana, Indians
He raked over those 150 at-bats and seems destined for the top of this list, but the season-ending knee injury obviously doesn't help. If Santana and Grady Sizemore look healthy next spring, this young stud could challenge for the No. 2 or 3 spot.
5) Buster Posey, Giants
I don't think he'll be a .340 hitter going forward, but he has certainly taken the fantasy world by storm. Keep in mind that it's not a lock that he'll continue to get 1B starts in 2011.
6) Geovany Soto, Cubs
The recent shoulder injury was a bummer, but his .919 OPS leads the position (min. 250 at-bats). He is entering what should be his prime and could move up the Cubs order in 2011.
7) Jorge Posada, Yankees
He seems prone to injuries and just turned 39 last week. Is it crazy to still like the guy? Posada is due to earn $13.1 million in what could be his final season, and I'll certainly take him if others let him slide below this point.
8) Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks
His 2009 slash line: .294/.355/.478. His 2010 slash line: .290/.361/.477. If not for his early knee injury that required surgery, Montero might be right on his 2009 five-cat stats. I won't be surprised if I end up pushing him over Posada in the coming weeks.
9) Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
Here is the big ledge. The top-eight feels solid, but Suzuki has followed up an excellent 2009 season with a letdown. Granted, his park doesn't help, his teammates stink, and he has had some bad BABIP luck. I'm pretty sure I'll have him in my top-10 come February, but as I said, we're at a spot that is open for debate.
10) Mike Napoli, Angels
Again, the bottom couple slots in the top-10 are up for debate. Napoli has done nearly half of his work at first base, and Kendry Morales will be back next year. The power isn't a question, but the playing time behind the dish is still a problem.
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2000s Draft Bests, Worsts
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ted Carlson
Posted 4/22/2010 5:06 PM
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The 2010 NFL Draft kicks off tonight with the first round and continues with six more rounds over the next two days. In honor of the draft, I'm submitting my best and worst draft picks, by position, of the previous decade (2000-09).
Quarterback
Best: Tom Brady, Patriots (2000, Rd, 6, No. 199)
Worst: JaMarcus Russell, Raiders (2007, Rd. 1, No. 1)
-The Brady choice is obvious. Russell wins out over David Carr, Byron Leftwich, J.P. Losman, Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington despite being only three years into his career. It doesn't help Russell that the next two picks were Calvin Johnson and Joe Thomas, both of whom would have fit needs for the Raiders.
Running back
Best: LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (2001, Rd. 1, No. 5)
Worst: Ron Dayne, Giants (2000, Rd. 1, No. 11)
-Surprisingly few later-round RB picks turned into gems during this period, and it's hard to vote against LT, who dominated the decade. Dayne beat out some other notable busts. And, for the record, I didn't consider Reggie Bush, who has scored 32 touchdowns over four seasons.
Wide receiver
Best: Marques Colston, Saints (2006, Rd. 7, No. 252)
Worst: Charles Rogers, Lions (2003, Rd. 1, No. 2)
-Any arguments?
Tight end
Best: Jason Witten, Cowboys (2003, Rd. 3, No. 69)
Worst: Jerramy Stevens, Seahawks (2002, Rd. 1, No. 28)
-Undrafted tight ends (Antonio Gates) don't count here. Witten is a fairly clear-cut choice, but two or three years from now, the Eagles may make a claim about Brent Celek (2007, Rd. 5). Stevens beats out other first-round busts because he also hurt the Seahawks with his off-field exploits.
Offensive tackle
Best: Jared Gaither, Ravens (2007, Rd. 5, supplemental draft)
Worst: Mike Williams, Bills (2002, Rd. 1, No. 4)
-Okay, so I cheated a little with Gaither, but he deserves the nod. The Ravens took a shot on him in the supplemental draft, and all he has done is ably replace some dude named Jonathan Ogden. He is a reason why the Ravens ground attack has dominated over the last two seasons.
Offensive guard
Best: Jahri Evans, Saints (2006, Rd. 4, No. 108)
Worst: Leonard Davis, Cardinals (2001, Rd. 1, No. 2)
-I'm sure I'll get some flak for picking Evans, a right guard, but he is a dominant part of the Saints offensive line and gets better with each season. Davis has earned three Pro Bowl nods with the Cowboys, but he was a huge bust for the Cardinals.
Center
Best: Dan Koppen, Patriots (2003, Rd. 5, No. 164)
Worst: Chris Spencer, Seahawks (2005, Rd. 1, No. 26)
-Koppen may not be an elite center, but he has started 103 games over the last eight seasons and served the Patriots well. If you take a center in the first round, that guy needs to be a stud. Spencer isn't.
Defensive end
Best: Jared Allen, Chiefs (2004, Rd. 4, No. 126)
Worst: Courtney Brown, Browns (2000, Rd. 1, No. 1)
-The Chiefs received four solid season out of Allen and then turned him into a bundle of draft picks. Brown is the most obvious choice, but one could make a very strong case for Jamal Reynolds (Packers, No. 10 overall, 2001).
Defensive tackle
Best: Jay Ratliff, Cowboys (2005, Rd. 7, 224)
Worst: Jonathan Sullivan, Saints (2003, Rd. 1, No. 6)
-It took Ratliff a few years to find his stride, but he is a two-time Pro Bowlers (2008, 2009). Sullivan has a ton of competition for this award, including Ryan Sims, Dewayne Robertson, and Wendell Bryant
Linebacker
Best: Lance Briggs, Bears (2003, Rd. 3, No. 68)
Worst: Vernon Gholston, Jets (2008, Rd. 1, No. 6)
-There are plenty of day two linebackers who turned into quality players, but Briggs is a five-time Pro Bowler and a true stud. Gholston was an obvious choice, and rumor has it that the Jets are moving him to DE.
Cornerback
Best: Cortland Finnegan, Titans (2006, Rd. 7, No. 215)
Worst: Pacman Jones, Titans (2005, Rd. 1, No. 6)
-The Titans have been on both ends of the spectrum. It says something about Jones that I chose him over Willie Middlebrooks, a first-round pick who started just two games and never picked off a pass for the Broncos.
Safety
Best: Antoine Bethea, Colts (2006, Rd. 6, No. 207)
Worst: Rashard Anderson, Panthers (2000, Rd. 1, No. 23)
-Bethea is a two-time Pro Bowler and has been the only stable piece in the Colts' injury-riddled secondary over the last four seasons. Anderson appeared in only 27 games over two seasons before being suspended multiple times.
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Big Ben's Value
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ted Carlson
Posted 4/21/2010 2:34 PM
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Roger Goodell handed down a six-game suspension to Ben Roethlisberger on Wednesday. The Steelers quarterback (for now) can reduce the sentence to four games if he completes counseling and otherwise shows good behavior in the coming months. What's the fantasy fallout?
The first, most obvious factor is that Big Ben's value drops out of the top-15 among quarterbacks. In other words, he won't be a No. 1 option if you play in a 10, 12 or 14-team league.
Second, the suspension will keep Roethlisberger from being a valid No. 2 quarterback selection for many fantasy teams. The Steelers are on bye in Week 5. A four-game sentence means he will miss the opening five games. A six-game sentence will cost Big Ben seven weeks.
Week 4, 5 byes: Tony Romo, Brett Favre, Matt Cassel, Josh Freeman, Tom Brady, Chad Henne, Matt Hasselbeck
Week 6,7 byes: Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, Trent Edwards/Bills QB, Matt Moore/Panthers QB, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub, Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez
I included lower-ranked quarterbacks in there, but there are at least five legit top-10 quarterbacks and some other interesting No. 2-level options in those lists above.
If you hold your fantasy football draft in the middle of August, you probably won't know if Roethlisberger will have his sentence knocked down to four games. Thus, Big Ben won't be a viable bench option if you grab Manning, Brady, Romo, Schaub, or Favre as your No. 1 quarterback.
So, Big Ben is not simply a No. 2 fantasy quarterback for 2010. He is a No. 2 fantasy quarterback who can't be drafted by at least a handful of teams in every league.
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Henne Wins
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ted Carlson
Posted 4/14/2010 11:26 AM
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Who is the biggest winner in the Brandon Marshall? How about the guy who will be throwing him the ball? Chad Henne jumped up my quarterback rankings on Wednesday.
Henne posted mixed results over his 13 starts in 2009: 7-6 record, 76.6 rating, 61.1% comp., 2,786 yards, 12 TD, 13 INT. Overall, though, it was a pretty good first showing after spending nearly all of his rookie season on the bench. Henne was handcuffed by a lack of quality receivers and by the Dolphins' tendency to use the Wildcat formation.
However, his numbers changed for the better after Ronnie Brown hurt his foot. The Dolphins went away from the Wildcat and let Henne chuck it more often. Over the final five games, he averaged more than 40 passes per contests, completed 64.3 percent of his tosses, and threw for 1,366 yards.
With Marshall in the mix and Brown coming off his second serious lower-body injury of the last three seasons, I'll be very interested to see if the Dolphins keep the Wildcat in 2010. They might ditch it in favor of more traditional formations and in favor of featuring the pass a little more. Bill Parcells' history suggests he may be in favor of taking to the air.
-In 2008, Chad Pennington threw for 3,653 yards.
-The 2004-06 Cowboys squads featured Tony Romo, Drew Bledsoe, and Vinny Testaverde, and they averaged 3,781 passing yards and 24 passing touchdowns.
-In 1998, Testaverde and Glenn Foley combined to throw for 4,005 yards and 33 touchdowns for the Jets.
-In 1994-96, Parcells asked Bledsoe to chuck it 691, 636 and 623 times.
-The 1984-88 Giants, led by Phil Simms, averaged 3,751 passing yards and 23 passing touchdowns per season - and that was well before the pass-happy current times.
I'm ready to push Henne's 2010 projections up to 3,500 yards and 20 touchdowns, for starters. I'm willing to go higher. Those numbers may cause fantasy owners to shrug after all the huge digits we saw in 2009, but Henne is firmly in my top-20. I doubt he'll creep into my top-15, but I can make a case for him to sit at No. 17, which would place him ahead of guys like Vince Young, Matt Cassel, Alex Smith, David Garrard and the fast-falling Kyle Orton.
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Mendenhall Over Greene
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ted Carlson
Posted 4/13/2010 12:57 PM
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Rick Hawes did an excellent job of covering all the aspects and impact of the Santonio Holmes trade, but I want to add my two cents and focus in on the two highest-rated fantasy talents on the Steelers and Jets: running backs Rashard Mendenhall and Shonn Greene.
Less that two months ago, at least one well-known fantasy expert was building a case for Greene to be a top-five fantasy back. Think about that for a moment. Greene was hanging out with some serious talent.
Since that time, the Jets have added Holmes and LaDainian Tomlinson to the mix. LT basically replaced Thomas Jones, but we have to keep in mind that Leon Washington is also part of this backfield.
The Jets boasted the NFL's top rushing unit (2,756 yards) in 2009. They rushed the ball 607 times and came in way ahead of the second-place team (Panthers, 525). They were the first team to reach 600 carries since the 2004 Steelers. Over the last five seasons, only the 2009 Jets, the 2008 Ravens, and the 2008 Falcons surpassed even 550 carries in a single year.
2004 Steelers, 2008 Falcons, 2008 Ravens, 2009 Jets
see a common denominator? Those four teams made it to the playoffs with rookie quarterbacks under center. Their rushing attacks led the way.
The 2009 Falcons added Tony Gonzalez in an effort to even out the attack. The Steelers waited until 2006 to bring on another weapon (Holmes), and the Ravens also took two years to supply their young franchise passer with another option (Anquan Boldin). None of those offenses featured the run quite as much as their quarterbacks grew more comfortable.
I have no doubt that the Jets will feature the run again in 2010, but they are building up a variety of weapons around Mark Sanchez. Greene, Holmes, LT, Washington, Braylon Edwards, and Jerricho Cotchery are all in the mix, and the Jets have an excellent offensive line. The Jets offense should be much improved in 2010, but are there enough balls to go around?
More to the point of this post, will Greene get enough touches to be a top-five back? I doubt it. Top-10? That may be stretching it, too. Shonn has the potential and the blockers, but he is headed in the wrong direction on fantasy boards.
Back in Pittsburgh, Mendenhall keeps looking better and better. The Steelers noted shortly after the season that they wanted to improve the ground attack in 2010. The Holmes trade and Ben Roethlisberger's off-field issues have only helped to solidify the belief that the Steelers will run, grind, and run some more the season ahead. And they'll take another step towards a ground-based attack when they draft Mike Iupati in nine days.
There aren't many 300-carry backs in the NFL these days, but Mendenhall could get a shot to hit that total in 2010. I had him just outside my top-10 backs prior to the recent news, and he has now pushed into that group. One of the RBs he passed is Greene.
The Jets got the better end of the deal with the Steelers, but from a fantasy perspective, Mendenhall turned into winner while Greene lost some value.
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Eagles Aren't Rebuilding
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ted Carlson
Posted 4/9/2010 4:12 PM
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"They're rebuilding, and they're going young. So I never knew 33 years old was old, but I guess I'm too old."
Donovan McNabb spoke these words in his first press conference as a member of the Washington Redskins, and the "r" word has rippled through the media ever since. Some local and national press medias are calling it a rebuilding period. Some people are trying to define the level of rebuilding. The Eagles are as comfortable uttering that word as Fonzie was of saying he was wr-wr-wro-wrong.
The evidence against the Eagles is as follows:
-Released: Brian Westbrook, Will Witherspoon, Shawn Andrews, Kevin Curtis
-Unsigned: Darren Howard, Jason Babin, Sean Jones
-Traded: Donovan McNabb, Sheldon Brown, Chris Gocong, Reggie Brown, Chris Clemons
Most of those guys are over 30 years old, and most reports calling this a "rebuilding" phase cite the ages and prefer to end their case there. There are many problems with such a shallow viewpoint. Let's break it down:
1) Westbrook (RB): The Eagles prepared for the end of Westbrook's run by drafting LeSean McCoy last April. They re-signed Leonard Weaver and signed Mike Bell this March. Westbrook's knee and concussion issues necessitated the need for the Eagles to make a change. Covered.
2) Witherspoon, Gocong (LB): Spoon was a desperate, stop-gap solution last year, and he never quite fit into the scheme. Gocong was also a poor fit for the 4-3 front, and he is much better suited to the Browns' 3-4 unit. The Eagles well welcome back Stewart Bradley (ACL), added Alex Hall, and re-signed Omar Gaither and Akeem Jordan. Covered.
3) Andrews (OL): The once-promising right guard played two games over the last two seasons. He punched his ticket out of town months ago. This move surprised nobody. The Eagles need to address the interior of the O-line in the draft, but that was a fact well before they dumped Andrews. Non-issue.
4) Curtis, R. Brown (WR): Brown fell out of favorite when DeSean Jackson emerged in 2008, and Curtis fell behind Jeremy Maclin this past season. Curtis has knee issues that nearly rival Westbrook's problems. The Eagles were fortunate to get something (2011 sixth-round pick) for Brown. They signed Jason Avant to a five-year deal, and he will serve as the No. 3 behind Jackson and Maclin. Covered.
5) Howard, Babin, Clemons (DL): The Clemons trade brought back Darryl Tapp, a potential three-down left end who is just 25 years old. Howard was a nice situational pass-rusher and Babin played pretty well in a similar role, but these guys can be replaced. Tapp joins a line that includes Trent Cole, Mike Patterson, Broderick Bunkley, Juqua Parker, Victor Abiamiri, and Trevor Laws. The cupboard is far from bare. Covered.
6) Sean Jones (S): He failed to earn a starting job last August and didn't have a very good 2009 campaign. The Eagles took a one-year chance on him, and it didn't work. They signed Marlin Jackson as a potential filler and will likely draft a safety. Non-issue.
7) Sheldon Brown (CB): This is a tough one. Brown was a solid six-year starter for the Eagles. He played physical, he fought through pain, and he usually got the job done. The Eagles don't have a clear replacement here. Open.
8) McNabb (QB): Only time will tell if Kevin Kolb will be a suitable replacement for No. 5, but it's not as if the Eagles didn't prepare for this move. They drafted Kolb for a reason, right? Covered.
When I read the word "rebuilding," I think of teams like the Rams, Seahawks, Chiefs, Bills, Buccaneers, Lions, Browns and, yes, the Redskins. You look at those rosters and see multiple, serious holes.You look at those rosters and see 4-12 and 5-11 records in 2010.
The Eagles have a ton of talent across their offense in Jackson, Maclin, Avant, McCoy, Weaver, Bell, Brent Celek, Jason Peters, Todd Herremans, Winston Justice, Jamaal Jackson, Nick Cole, and (maybe) Kolb. They also have some talent on defense in Cole, Tapp, Bunkley, Patterson, Parker, Abiamiri, Bradley, Asante Samuel, and Quintin Mikell.
Do they have holes at G/C, OLB, S and CB? Certainly. But they own picks No. 24, 37, 55, 70, and 87 in this month's draft. They also have multiple picks in the fourth round (105, 121) and an early choice in round five (137). Andy Reid and Howie Roseman will have ample opportunities to fill their holes and add depth to the roster.
I'll be surprised if the Eagles don't contend for a Wild Card spot in 2010. I don't know how you can apply the "rebuilding" tag to a team with reasonable playoff aspirations.
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Harden's Strange Night
A Fantasy Sports Blog by Ted Carlson
Posted 4/8/2010 4:04 PM
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On Wednesday night, Rich Harden produced a strange stat line that has caused me some degree of unrest throughout the day. Every Harden outing carries greater magnitude that most other starting pitchers because history shows we can only count on Rich for about 25 starts and 145 innings, at best. Here is a look back on his line against the Blue Jays:
3.2 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 8 K, 1 HR, 1 HPB, 90 pitches
Harden walked the first batter he faced, and then proceeded to strike out five of the next six batters. He served up a "wind-aided" (per the Dallas Morning News) homer in the third inning. Then came the crazy fourth. Harden hit Vernon Wells, walked Lyle Overbay, struck out John Buck, saw Edwin Encarnacion reach on an error, and retired Alex Gonzalez on a weak fly. With two outs, Harden walked Travis Snider to score a run, walked Jose Bautista to score a second run, and was pulled. No hits, two unearned runs in the inning.
"It was just an odd night," Harden told the Morning News. "I couldn't get them to put anything in play. I was throwing a lot of pitches, and that last inning I think it got to me."
My problem with Harden extends back into 2009, when he had an equally strange season. He was utterly dominant at times (10.9 K/9), but he also posted a 4.3 BB/9 rate and served up 23 homers over 141.0 innings. His uneven season led to a 4.09 ERA and wide ranges between his FIP (4.35), xFIP (3.70), and tERA (4.52).
If we take a step back and look at some longer-term indicators, there are a few that worry me - specifically his fastball speed and his fly ball rate. These numbers are courtesy of FanGraphs:
Avg FB speed
2004: 94.3
2005: 94.4
2006: 93.5
2007: 93.8
2008: 92.0
2009: 92.1
FB rate
2004: 37.4%
2005: 31.1%
2006: 32.2%
2007: 41.9 %
2008: 49.0%
2009: 43.8%
Harden hit in the low-90s on Wednesday, and he did not record a ground ball out.
When Harden first came into the majors he complemented his fastball with an array of secondary pitches. In 2003-04, he most often turned to his slider. In 2005-06, he counted on a splitter. In 2007, he used a changeup nearly as much as his split-finger. In 2009, he used only the fastball and the change.
The current version of Harden bears little resemblance to the guy we saw in 2003. Heck, he isn't all that similar to the 2006 version, either.
The guy we saw on Wednesday night looks a lot like the one we saw over the second half of the 2009 season. Harden served up a ton over homers (16) prior to the 2009 All-Star break. As the year went on, he cut down on the homers and increased his strikeouts, but his BB/9 rate jumped to 5.4 over August and September. Harden is not giving batters much to hit (good for Ks), but they are laying off (bad for BBs).
It's a tricky line to walk and one that can lead to strange outings like we saw on Wednesday. I remain intrigued by his power arm and potential, but I prefer to steer clear of Harden if I can at this point. The strikeouts are great, but there are too many other things that can blow up.
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