In Like a Lyon? A Fantasy Sports Blog by Christian Peterson Posted 2/6/2008 8:44 PM feed email print

Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin announced Wednesday that Brandon Lyon will start the season as the team's closer. The rationale, according to the Arizona Republic, is that the move "makes baseball sense" and that Lyon, a veteran, "probably deserves first crack at [the job] just from a seniority perspective."

Really? Rather than simply accepting that Lyon deserves a shot at the role "just because," let's take a little closer look.

Lyon put up pretty good surface stats as a set-up man last year (2.68 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), but that doesn't tell the whole story. Using several sabermagical measures, we can see that those numbers were pretty hollow. Lyon stranded an unusually high number of baserunners (78 percent) and allowed a measly two home runs in 74 innings pitched. Research has shown that the average hurler is more likely to yield something closer to seven taters in that amount of work. Finally, he whiffed an anemic 4.9 batters per nine innings, which is not considered to be anything close to "closer-worthy."

Lyon has been tried as a closer twice before, in 2003 and 2005. He flamed out in the role late in 2003 when given a chance by the Red Sox, then spent 2004 on the disabled list with a nerve problem in his elbow. He returned to save 14 games for the D'Backs in 2005 before another elbow injury sidetracked him again (but not before he put up the worst numbers of his career). It could be just me, but there's something about the closer role that doesn't seem to agree with Mr. Lyon.

So, I'm saying Lyon's going to fail. But that's not necessarily where this story ends. It seems young fireballer Tony Pena is mentioned most as the second candidate to close out games in Arizona. While this may be true from a pure "stuff" standpoint (Pena struck out a more respectable 6.6 batters per nine innings last year and is generally considered "closer material"), he wore down noticeably in the second half of last year and must harness his untamed control to keep the job even if he's second in line behind Lyon.

The best candidate, in fact, is probably Chad Qualls, acquired in the trade that created all this mess by sending Jose Valverde to Houston. Though he blew a couple of saves when given a chance as the closer late in the 2007 season, Qualls was brilliant in a setup role and, most impressively, struck out nearly a batter per inning while also maintaining an excellent groundball-to-flyball ratio.

It might be because I always eschew high-priced closers on draft day in favor of grabbing a few sleepers and then playing the waiver wire for new save sources that emerge midseason, but Qualls is the player I'd keep my eye on out of this group. In fact, in NL-only or extremely deep mixed leagues, I'd avoid Lyon and Pena altogether in favor of grabbing Qualls late in the proceedings.

A Bunch of Maroney A Fantasy Sports Blog by Christian Peterson Posted 2/4/2008 6:08 PM feed email print

I know, I know... I'm supposed to be looking forward to baseball season. And I am, but first I have to get something football-related off my chest: Damn you, Laurence Maroney. Let me start by saying I was one of L-Mo's biggest supporters prior to the season. I wound up drafting him on most of my teams, and I wound up cursing his name throughout nearly the entire season. It would have been (and was, actually) so easy to give up on him, but now, after a great run of games to finish out the season and more fireworks in the playoffs, Maroney has once again made things difficult on fantasy owners as we enter the 2008 offseason.

First, a look at Maroney's stellar finish to the season:

Laurence Maroney, Patriots (Last nine games)

RUSHING

RECEIVING

Week	Opp	Score	Att	Yards	YPC	TD		Rec	Yds	TD
11	@ BUF	W 56-10	6	19	3.2	1		0	0	0
12	PHI	W 31-28	10	31	3.1	1		0	0	0
13	@ BAL	W 27-24	13	44	3.4	0		2	79	0
14	PIT	W 34-13	8	18	2.3	0		0	0	0
15	NYJ	W 20-10	26	104	4.0	1		0	0	0
16	MIA	W 28-7	14	156	11.1	1		0	0	0
17	@ NYG	W 38-35	19	46	2.4	2		0	0	0
Div	JAC	W 31-20	22	122	5.5	1		2	40	0
Conf	SDG	W 21-12	25	122	4.9	1		1	9	0
SB	NYG	L 14-17	14	36	2.6	1		2	12	0
Total			157	698	4.4	9		7	140	0

Maroney was undoubtedly affected by a groin injury that caused him to miss three games early in the year, but he was far more affected by a game plan that often called for four receivers and either one running back or none early in the season. As teams started to play the pass and had at least limited success in limiting Tom Brady down the stretch, Maroney became a much more dangerous weapon.

The problem, of course, is that we have no clue what strategy the Patriots will employ next season or, for that matter, from one game to the next. So, how do we gauge Maroney's late-season success when ranking him for 2008?

I honestly have no idea. Did the Patriots limit him early in the season so he'd be fresh later on? Was the injury still hampering him even after he returned? Will Sammy Morris take a huge bite out of his carries again next year like he did before suffering an injury this year? Will Maroney take virtually all the goal line handoffs like he did throughout the second half? Will Randy Moss be back? Will Tom Brady set fire to the record books again? It all makes Maroney one of the most hard-to-rank runners in the NFL as we begin formulating our 2008 football cheat sheets (it's never too early!).

Defending the Twinkies? A Fantasy Sports Blog by Christian Peterson Posted 2/1/2008 3:58 PM feed email print

The talking heads all agree; the Twins got fleeced in the Johan Santana deal. I, for one, am not sure that I agree.

First off, prevailing opinion is that there were three better offers the team could have taken at some point in time - the better players in question being, in no particular order, Phil Hughes, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jon Lester. While I will grant you that, as a die-hard Twins fan all my life, I would have preferred that the team landed a "can't miss" prospect like Hughes or Ellsbury (I personally wouldn't put Lester in the same category) in exchange for Santana, the truth is that nobody who knows what happened behind the closed front office doors of the Twins, Red Sox, or Yankees is about to reveal what, in fact, their final offers consisted of.

So, instead of focusing on the players the Twins didn't get, doesn't it make at least some sense to evaluate the deal based on the prospects they actually did acquire? Even this is difficult to do, as there exist only a handful of people on this earth truly qualified to evaluate the talents of all of the different players involved (and not involved, for that matter). Those people are gainfully employed by the very same teams that either did or didn't pull the trigger on this deal. My point is, nobody knows if Hughes is the next coming of Roger Clemens, or if Ellsbury is the next Johnny Damon. For all we know, Hughes is the next Paul Wilson and Ellsbury is the reincarnation of Otis Nixon. Just so we agree that we really have no clue what's going to happen with any of these prospects.

At the most basic level, the Twins acquired Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey in exchange for one season of Santana, who will cost almost as much as the Twins new stadium when all is said and done (and who obviously had no interest in continuing his career in Minnesota, judging by how quickly he refused the offer to earn a cool $20 million per season for the next four years.

Let's start with Gomez. What we know is that he was both the youngest and the fastest player in Major League Baseball last year. We can also surmise that he had no business being in Major League Baseball so soon. Even ignoring the fact that the Mets clearly rushed Gomez through their system with little regard for his development, the dude is pretty good. If he makes the team out of spring training, he immediately becomes one of the best defensive center fielders in the American League. His speed allows him to cover acres of Metrodome real estate and he's already got an excellent arm. His skillset, in fact, sounds suspiciously like another Twins icon who just left town.

And the Torii Hunter comparison is an interesting one. As a 21-year-old prospect, Hunter was very highly regarded, but he also spent that season split between High-A and Double-A in the minor leagues. He couldn't hit the breaking ball, struck out twice as often as he walked, barely kept his batting average above .250, and his OBP hovered in the low .300s. He wouldn't even make it to the major leagues for good until 2001 - at the ripe old age of 26. He still strikes out more than twice as often as he walks, gets on base barely a third of the time, and has a career batting average of .271. However, two outstanding skills (his defense and his power) made him worth $90 million for the next five seasons - at least to the Angels.

So are we fair to judge Gomez based on his first 125 major league at-bats and say that he'll never be the much-coveted "impact player" the Twins were supposed to have received in the Santana deal? Would it have been fair to make that judgment about Hunter when he was 21 and barely staying afloat at Double-A? There is absolutely no doubt that Gomez has at least two outstanding skills (his defense and his speed). Does that mean he'll eventually turn into Torii Hunter? I don't know, but I'm not willing to write him off before he can even legally buy a beer (and, by the way, Gomez's battling average, OBP, and walk rates all improved over the last three minor league seasons, so it's not like the kid isn't picking things up as he goes along), nor am I willing to shout from the mountain tops that he'll never be the impact player Ellsbury will. Ellsbury, after all, has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he's a future All-Star. You know, because he looked really good in his 116 major league at-bats last year.

The knock on Humber and Mulvey is that they have "limited ceilings." Scouts and people who play the role of scouts on the internet say Humber will never be anything more than a No. 3 starter. For shame! Last I checked, the going rate for a No. 3 starter was $12 million per season (and that's being extremely kind to Carlos Silva, who signed for $48 million with the Mariners this offseason). No, you can't win a World Series with a bunch of No. 3 starters. But you can't win one without a No. 3 starter, either.

For at least the next two or three years, this trade will be unfairly judged on how Gomez, Humber, and Mulvey progress, but it's Guerra who is the true wild card. The 18-year-old hasn't thrown even close to enough innings for us to fairly judge his talents, but he did enough to rank as the No. 2 prospect in the Mets system by Baseball America. Above and beyond that fact, we should have learned by now not to doubt the Twins talent evaluators. You've already seen all the examples (the Frank Viola trade, the Chuck Knoblauch trade, the A.J. Pierzynski trade) of their work, and you may be bludgeoned to death by it if Francisco Liriano returns 100 percent healthy this season.

If not for the rumored deals that the Twins allegedly passed on, this trade would not look all that bad. There is obviously a ton of risk, but that's the name of the game when dealing an established major leaguer for prospects.

Don't get me wrong. I get that Santana is the best pitcher to grace our presence in a long time. I get that he's a game-changing presence on the mound. I get that the Twins should have obtained the elusive "can't miss" prospect. But I also get that he wasn't sticking in Minnesota for more than one more year, and the team had to get what they could for him while the getting was good. I would have preferred one of the other rumored packages as well, but I also think the Twins have done enough over the years to deserve the courtesy of a little time before we crucify them for being taken to the cleaners by the Mets (and by Santana, who has somehow escaped criticism for essentially forcing the Twins to trade him below market value by suddenly issuing his "deal me or I'll invoke my no-trade clause" demand last week, but I digress).

Week 7 Ramblings A Fantasy Sports Blog by Christian Peterson Posted 10/21/2007 3:54 PM feed email print

When you can actually sit down and enjoy watching NFL games like the Bills vs. Ravens, Saints vs. Falcons, and Titans vs. Texans, you know you're a fantasy football junkie. It looked like it was going to be an extremely boring Week 7, but it turns out there was plenty to talk about, even if you ignore the ridiculous offensive numbers being put up by the Patriots. So let's get right to it.

Patriots vs. Dolphins
With 6:47 remaining in the second quarter, Tom Brady was 11-for-11 for 220 yards and four touchdowns. Both of his throw-it-up-for-grabs touchdowns to Randy Moss were drastically underthrown, but each time Moss went up and simply took the ball away from two defenders. Is 60 touchdowns out of the question for Brady this year? Is Jerry Rice's single-season touchdown record (22 in 1987) in danger of being broken by Moss? They made it look so easy on Sunday, I wouldn't rule it out.

For both personal and professional (inasmuch as what I do for a living can be described as a "profession") reasons, I was excited about the return of Laurence Maroney today. However, I quickly realized that life was less frustrating when he was injured. Why? Because he continues to be used only sporadically by Bill Belichick. Part of the problem is that the Patriots' passing offense is so ridiculously good that they have no reason to run the ball, but Heath Evans and Kevin Faulk continue to be heavily involved in the rushing offense. It came as no surprise that L-Mo was on the sidelines during the second half – no reason to risk re-injury to his groin – but it's getting tougher and tougher to envision Maroney suddenly morphing into a No. 1 running back given everything else that's happening in this offense.

It was a lost day for the Dolphins, especially for Ronnie Brown owners. Brown looked very good whenever he touched the ball (109 combo yards), but he watched helplessly as Cleo Lemon scored his third rushing touchdown in two weeks, then left the game early after injuring his leg early in the second half.

Giants vs. 49ers
Trent Dilfer is all over the board. With little rhyme or reason on Sunday, he would alternate beautifully-thrown deep balls with horrendously-thrown wobblers. Considering his receivers are barely better than a 50/50 bet to pull down even the passes that are on target, the end result is both predictable and not pretty. Alex Smith is nothing to write home about, but the Niners offense is going absolutely nowhere with Dilfer at the helm.

Remember when Frank Gore was good? I have vague and hazy memories, but he looks like a shell of his former self. He was held under 100 rushing yards for the sixth time in as many games and is still averaging less than four yards per carry. The obvious problem is the lack of any type of passing game, but the Niners weren't exactly a juggernaut a year ago when Gore was cracking off 130 yards or more six times in the final eight games of 2007. Welcome to the 2007 Bust Club, Frank. Frank, meet Steven Jackson. Steve, Frank. Larry Johnson, Frank. Frank, Larry. Rudi Johnson, this is Frank Gore. Frank, meet Rudi. Laurence Maroney should be along shortly.

Another nice day for Brandon Jacobs, who accumulated a career-high 107 rushing yards while playing on a gimpy ankle. He is clearly the best of the Giants running backs, but tom Coughlin is also intent on getting playing time for both Derrick Ward and Reuben Droughns. Droughns was again the back of choice on several short-yardage plays, which is simply baffling to me. When you have a guy who stands eight feet tall, weighs 500 pounds, and runs a 3.7 in the 40, is Droughns (who admitted earlier this week, by the way, that he's never excelled in short-yardage situations) really a better option? It's tough to complain about Jacobs' day, but the continued presence of Droughns near the goal line remains frustrated. Yes, I'm a Jacobs owner.

It was a quiet afternoon for Plaxico Burress, who fell two touchdowns behind Moss for the NFL lead by being shut out by the 49ers. With the G-Men getting a defensive touchdown and running wild on the ground, Eli Manning and friends weren't relied upon to move the ball in this one. Eli still managed to throw two touchdown passes, but Burress really wasn't much of a factor at all. Then again, you didn't really think he'd score in every game this year, did you?

Lions vs. Buccaneers
Calvin Johnson made his much-awaited return to action, and was completely invisible until midway through the fourth quarter, when he grabbed an 18-yard pass and followed it one play later with a nifty end-around that went for 32 yards and a touchdown, proving once and for all that Megatron is truly more than meets the eye (sorry).

Give credit to Mike Martz for an unexpected game plan against the Buccaneers. The pass-happy offensive coordinator opted to stick to the ground throughout Sunday's game. Kevin Jones had a very nice day (110 combo yards, one touchdown) in his first start since last December. Owners of Jon Kitna and Roy Williams can't be too pleased with the de-emhasis on the pass, but Lions fans certainly can't argue with the results. In his last two games, Kitna has thrown for just 253 yards and two interceptions – not exactly top-10 fantasy quarterback material.

Earnest Graham is supposed to be a North-South runner adept only at running between the tackles, but you could have fooled me on Sunday. Graham grabbed a whopping 13 receptions on Sunday and racked up nearly 200 total yards. Not that I happened to be facing him in a PPR league today, but are you kidding me? 13 catches? Where am I? Earnest now has 19 catches in the last two games and has suddenly become an astonishingly valuable PPR player. Then again, he's not going to get to face the Lions every week.

Titans vs. Texans
As expected, LenDale White carried most of the load in the Titans backfield on Sunday. With Chris Brown out of action, however, rookie Chris Henry was on the active roster for the first time all season. He got extensive action on a drive midway through the third quarter and looked very good in taking five straight handoffs for 40 yards and a four-yard touchdown. Brown is well-known for his penchant for injury and Henry could be a decent speculative pick-up for those in deeper leagues who have an extra roster spot.

Let's be honest, if you didn't envision Sage Rosenfels approaching 300 yards and tossing four touchdown passes, you haven't been paying attention... um, or something like that. Then again, you can't script October, so perhaps this shouldn't have come as a surprise.

Rob Bironas kicked eight field goals on Sunday. That's, like, some sort of record.

Bills vs. Ravens
I say this every week, but Marshawn Lynch continues to impress. First, he was the start in an extremely well-done parody by ESPN's Kenny Mayne during pregame programming, then he went out and ran very effectively against one of the NFL's toughest run defenses. After 84 yards and a score against the stingy Ravens, he's now put up respectable fantasy digits against three of the top-rated run-stoppers in the league (Steelers, Patriots, Ravens), and has scored in four of his six games. In other words, you can't bench Lynch for any reason right now. The best new of all is that Lynch now gets a much lighter schedule over the next three weeks (Jets, Bengals, Dolphins), so he doesn't figure to slow down any time soon.

Welcome back, Lee Evans. Evans finally caught a deep pass (a 54-yarder in the second half that Lee nearly dropped) and had his best game of the season (98 yards). The Bills continue to play an extremely conservative brand of offense with rookie Trent Edwards running the show, but Sunday's result was an encouraging sign that Evans might still have some fantasy value – especially given the aforementioned schedule over the coming weeks.

Saints vs. Falcons
I don't know who took over Drew Brees' body, but he still doesn't look very good despite tossing two touchdown passes on Sunday. I hate to say it, but Marques Colston is slowly beginning to look like the next Michael Clayton. It was actually a surprise when he caught three balls for 45 yards on Sunday, which is astonishing considering how unstoppable the Brees-to-Colston combo was a year ago.

Roddy White should be in fantasy lineups. He caught eight passes for 110 yards and a touchdown and would have had a second score if he hadn't barely stepped out of bounds as he tiptoed down the sidelines in the second half. It doesn't seem to matter if it's Joey Harrington or Byron Leftwich "throwing" the passes, White is clearly option No. 1 in the Falcons' passing game. Roddy has gone for at least 55 yards in each of his last five games and has two 100-plus-yard, one-touchdown efforts during that span.

Week 6 Ramblings A Fantasy Sports Blog by Christian Peterson Posted 10/14/2007 4:01 PM feed email print

This is why fantasy football is great. In a game nobody outside of the immediate Cleveland and Miami areas should give two craps about, the Browns and Dolphins erupted for a combined total of 72 points. Two quarterbacks who weren't even remotely on the fantasy radar at the beginning of the season accounted for a combined total of eight touchdowns, and an otherwise meaningless football game was actually fun to watch. Best of all, it wasn't even close to the best game of the day. Allow myself to introduce... myself's observations on the Week 6 action.

Dolphins vs. Browns
I'll be the first to admit I had no faith in Derek Anderson staying relevant after his highly unlikely five-touchdown performance in Week 2. After yet another multiple-touchdown day on Sunday, there is little question that he's legit. He's now gone over 200 passing yards and scored at least two touchdowns (including two touchdown rushes in the last four weeks) each of the last five weeks. He's accounted for 15 touchdowns and has the Browns at .500, so there's little reason to believe the Brady Quinn Era will begin prior to next season. Oh, and by the way, Braylon Edwards is really good. After a hat trick on Sunday, he's now hauled in seven touchdown grabs in the last five games.

With well over 100 combo yards for the fourth straight week, Ronnie Brown had another solid day. However, his fantasy owners have a right to be peeved at the fact that Cleo Lemon scored two short rushing touchdowns. Because of those rushing scores, Lemon had a big fantasy day, but he struggled to get anything going through the air. Chris Chambers was held out of the end zone for the 14th consecutive game, but it wasn't for lack of trying. Lemon repeatedly tried to hit Chambers deep, but most of the attempts were woefully inaccurate, though Chambers isn't exactly legendary for making his quarterbacks look good by hauling in tough-to-catch passes.

And one final note: start whatever tight end faces the Browns each week. After David Martin - who has been all but invisible for five weeks - scored twice against them on Sunday, they've now allowed seven tight end scores this season, including four in the last two weeks. The Browns are on a bye in Week 7, but looking ahead to Week 8, the Rams' Randy McMichael could be a sneaky play when the Rams host the Browns.

Vikings vs. Bears
Adrian Peterson is my hero.

Eagles vs. Jets
All right, enough already. Chad Pennington simply can't retain his starting job any longer. He completed just 11 passes for a meager 128 yards on Sunday and his inability to stretch the field is crippling the Jets offense. At 1-5 and with Pennington due to be paid big money next season, there is absolutely no reason why the team shouldn't turn to Kellen Clemens immediately. On the bright side, Eric Mangini did finally realize that Thomas Jones is a pretty darn good runner. Jones went for 130 yards on 24 carries, proving once again that all he needs is an opportunity and he can put up good numbers. He still hasn't scored, which serves as yet another reason why you might be able to buy low on him right now. On a side note, the Jets' throwback jerseys were actually pretty darn cool, which is more than I can say for most of the awkward throwbacks teams have worn so far.

Welcome back, Reggie Brown. Brown wasn't overly impressive on Sunday, but I actually realized he was on the field, which is more than I can say for him during the Eagles first four games. Reggie will need a couple more six-catch, 89-yard games before I'll regain enough confidence to insert him into fantasy lineups, but it's a step in the right direction. After another long (75-yard) touchdown, three of Kevin Curtis' four scores have gone for 43 yards or more. He's not exactly the consistent, dependable weapon it seems like Donovan McNabb desperately needs, but he's obviously got plenty of big-play ability.

Jaguars vs. Texans
Congratulations are in order for David Garrard, who threw for two scores in his first multiple-touchdown effort in eight games. That's the stuff fantasy dreams are made of. More importantly, Maurice Jones-Drew is definitely back. He scored twice and went well over 100 combo yards for the second straight game. With a healthy lead and an unhealthy Fred Taylor, Mo-Jo saw a lot of touches in the second half, and he turned one of them into one of his patented big plays (a 57-yard run). Hopefully you didn't give up on him after his slow start.

Andre Davis has gotten most of the attention at wide receiver since Andre Johnson's injury, but Kevin Walter quietly emerged as an intriguing pickup. After a not-so quiet 12-catch, 160-yard effort on Sunday, he now has 23 grabs for well over 300 yards in his last three games. He has yet to score a touchdown, but with this week's revelation that Johnson might be out for longer than expected, Walter can help your fantasy team if you play in a deep league.

Redskins vs. Packers
The Redskins found a way to lose this one. Thanks to a rushing score (it's apparently the year of the quarterback rushing touchdown, unless you're the one quarterback we expect to score rushing touchdowns on a regular basis... ahem, Vince Young), Jason Campbell put up solid fantasy digits, and his numbers could have been better if not for at least six dropped passes by Redskins receivers. Santana Moss was on the opposite end of at least three of those drops and wound up without a single catch. He looked very rusty after missing a couple of games with a groin injury.

The Redskins' pass defense appears to be for real. Well, that or Brett Favre morphed back into Bad Brett during last week's second half. The gunslinger was held out of the end zone and tossed two picks (shattering the NFL record for interceptions in the process) and the Skins have now allowed just two touchdown passes in five games.

Buccaneers vs. Titans
Welcome to the dog house, Chris Brown. Brown fumbled a handoff in the first quarter and was barely heard from again as LenDale White took 25 carries to Brown's five. White didn't do much with all that action (just 2.6 yards per carry), but he did score for the third time in four games and is clearly the Titans runner to have at this point.

As for the Bucs, their offense stinks. Outside of a long touchdown catch by Joey Galloway, they never really even threatened the end zone. The running game is simply brutal. Earnest Graham got only 13 carries and managed just 29 yards running behind an offensive line that gave him absolutely no room to run. Since his eight-carry, 75-yard, two-touchdown garbage-time effort in Week 3, Graham has gained just 88 yards in his last three games. He's cracking off a whopping 2.4 yards per carry and should not be considered anything more than a bye week fill-in at this point.

Week 5 Ramblings A Fantasy Sports Blog by Christian Peterson Posted 10/7/2007 4:25 PM feed email print

It's Week 5. It's a million degrees inside Fanball HQ. In this week's blog, I reveal the cure for the common cold and the reason why you can never really trust the Patriots offense. OK, I was lying about the common cold thing, but you can imagine what it would be like if I wasn't.

Patriots vs. Browns
I was all ready to illustrate just how maddening the Patriots spread-the-wealth offense has been in the Tom Brady era by pointing out that Randy Moss needs just one touchdown to become the first Patriot since 1997 to score eight times in a season (even then, it was tight end Ben Coates, not a receiver). But then Brady went out and proved my point for me by completing ignoring Moss in favor of Donte Stallworth and Ben Watson. The Browns were rolling coverage to Moss, but don't' discount the idea that the Pats were simply making a statement that they can win games without needing to use the Super Freak. In any case, Watson had a huge day (he now has five touchdowns and has scored in four of five games) and has established himself as easily the No. 2 fantasy receiver on the Patriots, and Brady proved once again that he's perfectly capable of dashing the hopes of fantasy owners by spreading the ball to a multitude of different receivers, rather than focusing solely on a stud like Moss.

Sammy Morris had another big day in place of the injured Laurence Maroney, who may never play again as far as we can tell. Morris went over 100 yards and saved me the distinct pleasure of putting my fist through one of our TV screens by not scoring (I own Maroney in two leagues and faced an owner who started Morris against me in both today) a touchdown. There is simply no rhyme or reason to how Bill Belichick uses his running backs when the Patriots push the ball inside the 10-yard line, so fantasy owners shouldn't be too surprised with this result.

If you haven't figured it out yet, Braylon Edwards has reached must-start territory. Against one of the best defenses in the NFL on Sunday, he registered another six catches and 110 yards. He now has over 100 yards, a touchdown, or both in each of the last three games, including tough matchups with the Ravens and Pats in the last two weeks.

Jets vs. Giants
In the immortal words of CBS analyst Randy Cross, "the Jets don't befuddle, they confound." I don't really know what that means, but at the same time I can't dispute it. The Jets once again employed their befuddling dink-and-dunk offense, and once again Chad Pennington sucked. He did manage over 200 yards and a touchdown, but he threw three back-breaking interceptions, one of which led to the game-clinching touchdown for the G-Men. With five interceptions in the last two games and the Jets sitting at 1-4, expect to see plenty of speculation about Kellen Clemens taking over for Pennington in the coming weeks.

Thomas Jones had yet another highly frustrating day, carrying the ball just 13 times for 36 yards. Leon Washington didn't do any better (except for his kickoff return for a touchdown), and it's to the point that Jones is little more than a flex option or No. 3 fantasy running back until he proves otherwise. In theory, the schedule is pretty light for the Jets over the next several weeks and Jones could be a buy low candidate, but he was supposed to run for a lot more than 71 yards against the Bills and Giants in the last two weeks, so don't give up too much to get him.

Welcome back, Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs had a big day in his return to action after missing three games with a knee injury. He went over 100 yards on 20 carries and would have had an enormous day if not for a 25-yard touchdown run that was negated because of a holding penalty in the final two minutes of the game. Derrick Ward was also used liberally (13 carries and a touchdown of his own) before leaving the game in the second half after suffering an injury after a horse-collar tackle, but it appears Jacobs has regained his status as a legit No. 2 fantasy running back.

Saints vs. Panthers
I was interested to see how the Saints would divide carries among their running backs on Sunday, and it appears we have an answer. Namely, they won't divide them at all. Reggie Bush got 21 of the 28 running back handoffs and also caught nine balls for a career-high 30 touches. Unfortunately, it's unclear if this is in the team's best interest. Bush managed just over three yards per carry on his 21 running attempts and could get killed if he continues to take this many carries. To add insult to possible future injury, fullback Mike Karney scored on a two-yard touchdown plunge to snipe Bush's lone scoring opportunity. I'm no genius, but it seems like it would be in the Saints' best interest to give Aaron Stecker more opportunities. Stecker is no Deuce McAllister, but I don't think Bush will be as effective if he's being relied upon for 30 touches every game.

Redskins vs. Lions
The Redskins defense is legit. They completely shut down Jon Kitna on Sunday, which no other defense has been able to do thus far. The Skins sacked Kitna five times and have now limited opposing quarterbacks to under 200 yards per game and only two passing touchdowns. The Lions may have just had a bad day as well, but the Redskins have proven through four games that they aren't the walkover they were a year ago, when they surrendered a league-worst 30 touchdown passes.

On offense, there is simply no excuse for Mike Sellers scoring two touchdowns, while Clinton Portis was held to just 72 yards on 18 carries. Portis owners have a right to be upset with Sunday's result, but it's Ladell Betts who appears to be in grave danger of losing all of his fantasy value. Betts got 17 carries in the Redskins' Week 1 win over the Dolphins, but after just 22 yards on eight carries in Week 5, Ladell has gaind a grand total 43 yards on 21 carries in his last three games. In other words, he can't possibly be used as anything other than a handcuff to Portis right now.

Rams vs. Cardinals
Gus Frerotte had a huge day filling in for an injured Marc Bulger. More importantly, the offense seemed to respond to Gus like they hadn't for Bulger over the last couple of games. As you'd expect Frerotte made plenty of mistakes (three picks), but he also threw three touchdown passes and performed well enough to make me hope that all is not lost for Torry Holt and Steven Jackson this season. It won't be easy next week against the fearsome Ravens, but for the first time in weeks there is at least a small sliver of hope for this offense.

On the Cardinals side of the ball, Matt Leinart looked simply awful again on Sunday. He had to leave the game with a collarbone injury, but odds are he would have been yanked in favor of Kurt Warner anyways. Warner led a spirited attack from the moment he entered the game and has formed a great connection with Larry Fitzgerald, who had a second consecutive big game. Fitz caught nine balls for 136 yards and a late touchdown and was also brought down at the ½-yard line after a reception near the end of the first half. Anquan Boldin is due back from injury soon, but Fitz has officially re-established himself as a bona fide No. 1 fantasy receiver.

Titans vs. Falcons
This was one of the ugliest games I've watched all season long. Both teams appeared to be doing whatever they could not to win this thing. Vince Young registered the most disappointing performance of the day with three interceptions and no scores. I've been as big a Young supporter as you can possibly find, but his performance was nothing short of awful on Sunday; especially considering it came against a highly mediocre Falcons defense.

Equally disappointing was the play of LenDale White, who gained just 32 yards on 12 carries and gave way to Chris Brown on a three-yard touchdown run in the first quarter. Just when it looked like White had taken over as the better fantasy option of the two, Brown carried nearly as many times and scored the touchdown on Sunday. Neat.

As for the Falcons, Byron Leftwich proved that the Jaguars probably made the right choice in choosing David Garrard as their starter. Leftwich was indescribably bad after taking over for Joey Harrington in the fourth quarter. Harrington had actually played pretty well over the last couple of games for the Falcons, so the move was a bit of a head-scratcher. The sad fact of the matter is that the Falcons probably could have tied the game late in the fourth quarter had Harrington been in there instead of Leftwich. All-in-all, there's no fantasy value of any kind on the Falcons right now.

Steelers vs. Seahawks
Willie Parker owners have more right to complain than anyone in Week 5. Parker was a workhorse against the Seahawks, amassing over 100 yards on a whopping 28 carries, only to watch as Najeh Davenport scored two touchdowns. Thus continues a disturbing trend for Parker, who is averaging over 100 yards per game on the ground while scoring just once all season. Puke.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs
Welcome back, Maurice Jones-Drew!!!

Week 4 Ramblings A Fantasy Sports Blog by Christian Peterson Posted 9/30/2007 4:35 PM feed email print

On yet another horrible Sunday for most of my multiple fantasy football teams, I keep reminding myself that I finished in the money in four of my five fantasy baseball leagues that ended today. So, when Patrick Freaking Crayton ripped my heart out in three different leagues on Sunday (after Kevin Freaking Curtis did the same in multiple leagues a week ago), I was secure in the knowledge that I'm not a huge embarrassing failure. Thankfully, I'm not judged entirely on the fate of my own personal fantasy teams, but on the quality of the advice I give. So I shall carry on in the face of adversity and a mounting pile of lopsided losses to provide my take on some of the Week 4 action.

Jets vs. Bills
It's pretty rare when you can stack eight or nine men in the box and stop both the run and the pass, but that's exactly what Chad Pennington allowed the Bills to do on Sunday. The Bills came into the game ranked dead last in the NFL against both the run and the pass (yes, you read that correctly), but Pennington's steady diet of dinking and dunking allowed Buffalo to effectively shut down the Jets entire offense. Sure, Pennington completed 32-of-39 passes for nearly 300 yards, but the Jets simply never exploited an injury-riddled defense that came into the game missing four starters.

In the crowing example of how worthless the Jets conservative offense is, take the Jets final drive, when they took over with 1:43 left, down by three points. Pennington never threw the ball further than 11 yards downfield, settling instead for a series of dump-offs that wore down the clock without driving the team into field goal range. In a minute and a half, Pennington completed five passes for 24 yards before tossing a limp-armed interception that ended things. A couple more losses and the Jets simply have to go to Kellen Clemens full time, which will immediately upgrade their offense.

In other news, Thomas Jones was a huge disappointment on Sunday, rushing for just 35 yards on 12 carries (do you think a couple of long completions would have loosened up the Bills run defense?) and watching as Leon Washington scored on a nine-yard run in the second half. Fantasy owners who were expecting him to finally break out against a very poor defense were obviously not happy with his performance.

Trent Edwards wasn't bad for the Bills, completing 22-of-28 passes for 234 yards and a touchdown in his first NFL start. Lee Evans (six catches, 72 yards) was actually relevant for the first time all year, but it's still tough to get very excited about anyone outside of Marshawn Lynch in this offense.

Vikings vs. Packers
Adrian Peterson was once again the best player on the field for the Vikings (not that that's saying much), going over 100 yards rushing for the third time in four games. His continued success makes the fact that he carried the ball just three more times after rattling off a 55-yard run with seven minutes left in the first half an absolute travesty. The Vikings nonsensically ran just 22 running plays, while allowing clueless quarterback Kelly Holcomb to drop back and pass a whopping 39 times in this game. In the second half, they ran six times and passed 19 times. Good play-calling, Brad Childress. Peterson still managed a solid fantasy day despite the presence of Chester Taylor and his limited usage, but it should have been a much bigger day.

On a brighter note, rookie receiver Sidney Rice actually looked very good on Sunday. Despite the wildly inaccurate throws coming his way, Rice had a career day with six catches for 75 yards and a very impressive touchdown in the fourth quarter. It's tempting to label him a pickup in deep fantasy leagues due to the dearth of playmakers on the Vikings, except that there is absolutely no reason to have any confidence in the team's passing offense in general.

As expected, the Packers passed the ball all day long and Brett Favre had a huge day. Donald Driver owners weren't happy with the fact that Favre spread the ball to 11 different receivers, but he didn't throw any interceptions and validated his status as quite possibly the greatest human being to ever roam the face of the earth. He is one helluva gunslinger.

Not that we were expecting anything against the formidable Vikings run defense, but neither Vernand Morency nor DeShawn Wynn could get anything going in the Metrodome. Wynn was far busier despite the fact that Morency was announced as the starter, and given that Wynn is the third down back and the Pack passes on nearly every play, he still appears to be the player to own if fantasy owners must employ a Green Bay running back.

Raiders vs. Dolphins
I'm sure fellow editor Ted Carlson will point this out in his Week 4 Quarterback Notebook, but it bears repeating that Daunte Culpepper only completed five passes on Sunday. Yes, he scored five touchdowns, but fantasy owners must take his performance with a massive grain of salt.

Also, the Raiders can evidently run the ball... or can they? They came into the game ranked third in the NFL with 159 yards per game and proceeded to rattle off another 299 on Sunday. However, before you get too excited about grabbing Justin Fargas off the waiver wire this week, remember that the Silver and Black have now faced three of the four worst rushing defenses in the NFL (the Lions, who are allowing close to 130 yards per game and have given up six rushing scores, are the best unit they've faced). The schedule turns significantly tougher after Oakland's Week 5 bye, so I'll chalk their running game up as a mirage.

As for the Dolphins, they're a complete mess. Trent Green looked awful, throwing another two interceptions to bring his league-leading total to seven. With a couple more losses, the Dolphins may have to give rookie John Beck a chance, because they aren't going anywhere with Green at the helm.

At least the Fish have finally figured out that Ronnie Brown is pretty darn good. Brown went over 200 combo yards for the second week in a row and should continue his momentum against the Texans and Browns over the next several weeks.

Bears vs. Lions
Despite the fact that there were 67 points on the board when this thing ended, it was an extremely ugly affair. Jon Kitna was completely shut down early in the game, but recovered with two fourth-quarter touchdown passes. Mike Furrey led the team with 91 yards and will remain fantasy relevant as long as rookie Calvin Johnson remains out.

Brian Griese threw for nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns, but his three interceptions were eerily Rex Grossman-esque and essentially cost the Bears a win. So much for the plan to put in the veteran caretaker who won't make the mistakes Grossman has become legendary for. It was another wasted day for Cedric Benson, who was held to 50 or fewer rushing yards for the third time in four games. Bernard Berrian continues to rack up the catches (he had another eight on Sunday), but what happened to the big play ability we saw last year. In 2006, he averaged over 15 yards per catch. So far this year, he's at just over 13 and hasn't caught a pass longer than 26 yards.

Rams vs. Cowboys
It's officially time to drop Marc Bulger. In addition to the fact that he has two broken ribs, the loss of several offensive linemen and running back Steven Jackson has completely destroyed this offense. Bulger looked disinterested all day on Sunday, putting up just 114 yards and an interception against a Cowboys defense that was surrendering over 250 passing yards per game coming into Week 4.

As for the Cowboys, they are simply a juggernaut. I'll choose to avoid the fact that I incomprehensibly faced Patrick Crayton in three of my five leagues – after getting steamrolled by Kevin Curtis in three different leagues a week ago – this week and choose to admire what Tony Romo is doing. I was admittedly not one of his backers coming into the season, but he's officially convinced me he's the real deal. The only danger here is that Terrell Owens only caught three balls for 33 yards on Sunday, which means we should expect to see some sort of attention-grabbing stunt this week from T.O.

I don't own Marion Barber in any of my leagues, but even I cringed when Julius Jones scored from three yards out on Sunday. Apparently Barber's 21 touchdowns over the last 18 games weren't enough, so the Cowboys had to mess with fantasy owners by giving Jones a little goal line love, while MB3 was kept out of the end zone for the first time this year.

Colts vs. Broncos
Even before Marvin Harrison went down with an injury late in the first half, Dallas Clark was proving that he's far more receiver than he is tight end. He lines up split out wide on most of his plays, a trend that the Colts exploited time and again during the second half. He scored touchdowns on two fade patterns into the end zone (routes usually reserved for wideouts), on which he was covered by a linebacker. Other times, he creates huge matchup problems with much smaller defensive backs when lined up out wide. I don't know when or why the Colts decided to make Clark a focal point of their offense, but at this point there may only be one more valuable tight end in all of fantasy football. In the last three games, he has 17 catches for over 200 yards and four touchdowns.

There couldn't have been a more frightening sequence than that which occurred midway through the second half, when both Travis Henry and Joseph Addai went down with injuries. Both runners are backed up by complete unknowns in Selvin Young and Kenton Keith, respectively. Both Young and Keith looked very good filling in for the starters, which really makes you believe that just about anyone can thrive in either system. If the rash of injuries to No. 1 running backs over the past two weeks hasn't been enough to convince you of the need to handcuff your starting running backs, I don't know what is.

Cardinals vs. Steelers
The Steelers bandwagon was nearly totaled during a surprising loss to the Cardinals. I can't believe I'm about to say this, but Kurt Warner just might be able to salvage the fantasy value of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Granted, Boldin didn't play in Week 4, but both players have been much more involved under Warner than they were under Matt Leinart over the first two weeks.

And when did the Cardinals become a good defense? After limiting Willie Parker to 37 yards on 1.9 yards per carry, the Cards have now held Frank Gore, Shaun Alexander, Willis McGahee, and Parker under 100 yards. Who knew?

Santonio Holmes finally lived up to his sleeper hype with a career day. He's not an every-week fantasy starter yet, but if he can develop some consistency the Steelers passing game should be extremely effective once Hines Ward returns from injury.

OOF-da A Fantasy Sports Blog by Christian Peterson Posted 9/26/2007 1:28 PM feed email print

You may have already heard a thing or two about our in-house Fanball fantasy football league. It's called the Oval Office League (OOFFL) in honor of the oblong, oval-shaped (yes, football-shaped) office all of the Fanball experts sit in on a daily basis.

The OOFFL is a keeper league in which we were allowed to keep a maximum of two players from last year's roster, by surrendering a draft pick two spots ahead of where said player was picked a year ago (this rule has since been changed to unlimited keepers, but this was the rule in place at the beginning of this season). It is a PPR league with 50-50 scoring, and the only other wrinkle is that the rosters are fairly large (18) to allow for the ability to take more chances on young players who might not make an immediate impact.

Anyways, I was supposed to win this league hand's down. And I'm not just talking trash. As many as nine of the other nine owners not named Christian Peterson would have agreed with that statement prior to Week 1. Why, you ask?

Well, I came into this year's draft already knowing three things:
1. I was going to get LaDainian Tomlinson. By virtue of winning our Toilet Bowl "playoffs" last year, I was rewarded with the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft.
2. I was going to draft Frank Gore in the third round. I drafted him in Round 5 last year and was able to keep him with what amounted to the first pick of the third round.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew was going to inexplicably slide all the way to Round 9. Okay, that one I can also explain… I drafted him in the ninth round a year ago, so he became my second keeper.

At the draft, I grabbed Larry Fitzgerald in the second round, then nabbed Carson Palmer in the fourth, Calvin Johnson in the fifth, and Tony Gonzalez in the sixth. After nabbing Hines Ward with the 61st pick in the draft, my starting lineup looked like this:

QB Carson Palmer
RB LaDainian Tomlinson
RB Frank Gore
FLEX Maurice Jones-Drew
WR Larry Fitzgerald
WR Hines Ward/Calvin Johnson
TE Tony Gonzalez

Now, I'm no scientist, but that looks suspiciously like a lineup that includes, incomprehensibly; the consensus No. 2 quarterback, the consensus No. 1 running back, another near-consensus top-five running back, and a bona fide top-15 runner as my third back. Admittedly, I was (and am now even more) thin at wideout, which isn't ideal in a PPR format, but I think you'll agree that being "forced" to play Mo-Jo drew at flex isn't the worst thing in the world.

Fast forward three weeks, and I'm 0-3 with the second-least points in the league. In my own defense, I have also had the second-most points scored against me, but I somehow managed to lose even in a week when Palmer threw six touchdown passes (Gore also scored twice that week, but I was victimized by an opponent who employed T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Joey Galloway, each of whom scored twice).

Despite the obvious craptacular play of Mo-Jo and the possible absence of both Ward and Johnson this week, I am not panicking. I am quite confident that the acquisitions of Roddy White and Demetrius Williams will get me through the next couple of… aww, who am I kidding? I just need LT, Gore, and Fitz to pull their freaking heads out of their asses.

What's my point? I don't really know, other than to vent publicly, beg for your pity, and pray to the Fantasy Football Gods that the pendulum of luck swings back my way sooner or later. I'm desperately hoping for "sooner."

Week 3 Ramblings A Fantasy Sports Blog by Christian Peterson Posted 9/23/2007 4:09 PM feed email print

Sometimes, I hate fantasy football. Today was one of those days. It's not that everything that could possibly go wrong for my multitude of fantasy teams went wrong, but, well, that's exactly what happened. When Kevin Freaking Curtis outscores your entire roster, you know it's not going to be your week. Anyways, you'll forgive this week's blog if it's a tad on the bitter side. Stupid Kevin Curtis. Stupid Rams. Stupid Laurence Maroney.

Dolphins vs. Jets
They gave Ronnie Brown the damn ball today, and he responded in a huge way with 112 yards and two touchdowns on the ground and another 99 and a touch through the air. The Dolphins still somehow managed to lose the game, but Jesse Chatman was nowhere to be seen and hopefully head coach Cam Cameron finally realizes how dangerous Brown can be when given a chance.

As for the Jets, it was an odd day offensively. Chad Pennington led an extremely boring offense, as usual, but 100 yards from Thomas Jones (who was somehow held out of the end zone despite getting numerous chances from in close) and a kick return touchdown by Leon Washington allowed them to escape with a big win. Pennington accounted for three touchdowns on Sunday, but he really needs to work on his touchdown celebrations. After his first touchdown pass, he executed some sort of aborted fist pump that wound up looking like an epileptic fit, then after his two-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter he opted for the two-armed, between-the-legs muscle flex, which might have been okay if not for his muscle-free spaghetti arms. Come on, Chad; act like you've been there before, man.

Patriots vs. Bills
Despite the optimism I expressed in my blog earlier this week about Laurence Maroney (see below), it's officially time to panic. Maroney went over 100 yards on the day, but he continues to fall victim to the nonsensical whims of Bill Belichick. On Sunday, Maroney twice took the ball inside the five-yard line only to be replaced on the next play by worthless fullback Heath Evans. Evans failed to score on either of his short goal-line opportunities, then in each case Maroney returned to the game on the next play only to watch as Tom Brady tossed touchdown passes. Later, on a series that happened to be earmarked for Sammy Morris, Morris scored on a four-yard touchdown plunge. Honestly, this was once again pure luck and bad timing for Maroney owners, as he was the obvious workhorse most of the day and just missed scoring a couple of times. Still, the frequent deployment of no-talent assclowns like Morris and Evans appears to be far more trend than mirage.

Speaking of panicking, Lee Evans was once again completely invisible on Sunday. This time, it was predictable considering a long and ugly history against the Patriots, but an injury to quarterback J.P. Losman on the Bills' first series effectively destroyed any chance Evans had of breaking out with a long touchdown. For all of Losman's faults, he throws a nice deep ball and has clicked with Evans in the past, so those who employ Evans should be hoping his leg injury isn't serious. Rookie Trent Edwards looks somewhat promising for the future, but catching passes from a rookie quarterback is rarely the recipe for fantasy success.

Finally, Marshawn Lynch continues to impress. The rookie had yet another bulldozer-like touchdown run on Sunday and has managed to score twice and put up over 80 yards per game against three of the toughest defenses the AFC has to offer (Broncos, Steelers, Patriots). He'll finally get a break when the Jets and Cowboys come to town over the next two weeks.

Vikings vs. Chiefs
As a Vikings fan, I have to first call out the referees who called an incomplete pass on what appeared to be an obvious touchdown by tight end Visanthe Shiancoe in the first half. Shiancoe gathered the ball in and appeared to have his arms under him as he tumbled to the ground. It could be just me, but shouldn't the refs give a player the benefit of the doubt on a play like that, rather than taking points off the board? Replays, of course, were inconclusive, and the Vikes had to settle for a field goal. I have no doubt that, had the ref called it a touchdown in the first place, it would have stood up. As an indication of how confident Shiancoe was that he had caught the ball, he didn't even realize until about 15 seconds after the play that they had ruled it incomplete.

Secondly, the Vikings offense is simply awful, and Adrian Peterson deserves more. Peterson was easily the best player on the field in this game (yes, that includes Larry Johnson), and if the Vikings had any semblance of a passing game, he'd be in line for a humongous fantasy season. As it stands, he'll continue to have to fight for every yard he gets, and once Chester Taylor returns, he won't be getting 25 carries per game anymore.

Thirdly, the Vikings run defense is legit. They held LJ to 42 yards on 24 carries on Sunday. Excluding Steven Jackson's eruption against a disinterested Vikings defense in Week 17 a year ago, the Vikes haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 18 games. Again excluding the aforementioned S-Jax explosion, they've allowed only five rushing touchdowns in that same span.

Eagles vs. Lions
Every week, I analyze the opponents I am facing in my numerous fantasy leagues, just to get a feel for my chances heading into the week. In one league, this week my team - led by Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Wayne, and Marques Colston in what I feel to be a pretty solid PPR lineup - I judged my chances about even against a squad that includes Willie Parker, Laurence Maroney, and Javon Walker. In my brief analysis, I completely overlooked the fact that I was facing Kevin Curtis, dismissing him as a difference-maker because, well, he stinks, and the Eagles have sucked for two weeks. With 11 minutes remaining in the second quarter, I was already down by more than 30 points to Curtis. Kevin Freaking Curtis. Did I mention that I sometimes hate fantasy football? Oh well. I'm sure Colston will go off for about 250 and five touchdowns tomorrow night.

Rams vs. Buccaneers
Speaking of hating fantasy football, I fear this may be my wife's final foray into the world of fantasy football. She's in her fourth year in an all-female fantasy league and has generally fared well over the last three years. Actually, that's not entirely true - last year she led the league in points during the regular season by a wide margin before getting unlucky in the first round of the playoffs. Anyways, this year she drafted Steven Jackson with the No. 3 pick in her draft, then grabbed Torry Holt and Marc Bulger in rounds two and three (Bulger in Round 3 appeared to be a solid pick in her QB-Heavy scoring format). On paper, of course, this looks like a pretty damn good trio, but all three fantasy stalwarts look to be in huge trouble this season. The Rams looked simply awful on Sunday. Bulger managed just 116 yards and threw three picks. Jackson was solid (115) yards, but is getting hit behind the line of scrimmage on almost every play. The Rams get Dallas next week, and if Bulger and Co. can't do anything against that leaky secondary, it's going to be an extremely long season. In short, consider this my sincerest apology, honey. We'll get'em next year, if you haven't lost all interest in fantasy football by then.

Packers vs. Chargers
Hey, look at that - LaDainian Tomlinson averaged less than three yards per carry again this week. LT at least managed to score, but it's blatantly clear that teams are going to stack eight men in the box and dare Philip Rivers to beat them this year. For a good portion of this game, Rivers almost did just that. He completed 27-of-36 passes on Sunday, for over 300 yards and three touchdowns, but it wasn't quite enough as an inspired Brett Favre led the Packers to victory. Perhaps Sunday's outburst by Rivers will create a little more respect in future weeks, and frustrated LT owners have to remember that he had "only" three touchdowns and one 100-yard rushing game in the first four weeks of his record-setting 2006 season.

What was your favorite DeShawn Wynn moment? This week's hot pickup (a member of one of my leagues paid 81 of his 100 FAAB dollars to pick him up this week) laid a huge egg with just five touches for 23 yards against the Bolts. The good news for Wynn owners (in fairness, I also went out and grabbed him in a couple of my leagues) is that Brandon Jackson did nothing on Sunday, either, gaining just 22 yards on six carries before scoring from a yard out after a Packers interception put the ball on the one-yard line.

Cardinals vs. Ravens
What's the best way to ruin a young quarterback's confidence? How about yanking him midway through a game in which he was trailing only 6-0? That's just what Ken Whisenhunt did on Sunday, inserting Kurt Warner to run a no-huddle offense against the tough Ravens pass rush. While it clearly worked – Warner completed 15-of-20 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns – you really have to question Whisenhunt's wisdom in yanking his quarterback of the future. It's obviously unclear at this point how permanent this move is, if Warner gets the nod as the starter in Week 4 and you're thinking about picking him up this week, remember that he'll almost certainly be injured by the time your waiver claim goes through.

Steelers vs. 49ers
So, when is a game in which there are 53 points scored completely worthless from a fantasy perspective? When those 53 points are scored via a kick return touchdown, an interception return touchdown, a Najeh Davenport garbage time score, a Jerame Tuman touchdown catch, and a grab by someone calling himself "Taylor Jacobs." Here's an idea; let's mix in a little Frank Gore, Willie Parker, or Hines Ward, huh? Is that too much to ask.

By the way, it's officially time to consider benching any running back facing the Steelers. After last week's win over the Bills, the Buffalo News ran a story about the Steelers' defense placing bets on how few yards they can hold their opponents to. In three weeks thus far, the Steel Curtain has allowed 35 yards to Jamal Lewis, 64 to Marshawn Lynch, and 39 to Gore. Dating back to last year, the only back to do anything whatsoever against the Steelers is Lewis, who scored twice in two late-season 2006 matchups. Edgerrin James and Shaun Alexander are up next. Consider yourself warned.

Just Give Him the Damn Ball A Fantasy Sports Blog by Christian Peterson Posted 9/20/2007 12:46 PM feed email print

True story: In the semi-famous Fanball League, one owner traded Ronnie Brown to another in exchange for Matt Schaub, 20 FAAB dollars, and a box of raisins after Week 1. Even ignoring the fact that both teams featured at least one co-owner who share the same mother, I found this deal to be ludicrous. Despite strenuous objections from several other members of the league (you simply don't trade a back universally regarded as at worst a No. 2 fantasy back for an unproven No. 2 quarterback) the trade was allowed. Despite my further shock that the owner who acquired Schaub brilliantly opted to start Alex Smith in Week 2 rather than his new acquisition, I'm not here to harp on the many reasons why I think the trade was BS.

But it illustrates just how far Brown's stock has fallen. In less than two weeks, mind you, Brown went from a player who regularly commanded more than $20 at an auction or a second-round pick in a draft to trade fodder for a quarterback the likes of which are a dime a dozen on any league's waiver wire.

Don't get me wrong, the reason for the all-out panic on Brown is obvious. The man is averaging less than three yards per carry, he's received only 11 carries in each of the first two games, and a man who ate his way out of the NFL (Jesse Chatman) is spelling him throughout the game.

It's clear to me - as it should be to everyone - that Brown simply isn't being given an opportunity to prove himself capable of carrying the load in Miami. To argue this point, I set out earlier this week to prove just how effective he can be. Before I had done too much research, while doing my daily rounds in the AFC East (I cover that conference, a duty which includes checking the local papers and official websites for the latest news), I discovered that that the Miami Herald and the South Florida Sun-Sentinel had already done my job for me.

The Sun-Sentinel article has loads of useful statistical information about how Brown gets better the more carries he gets.

The Miami Herald article goes a different direction, pointing out how the team has typically fared when Brown has been used as a workhorse.

If you don't have the time to read through each of those articles (both of which present the very argument I am trying to make, if that isn't clear), here are the brief highlights:

Ronnie Brown - yards per carry
Carries 1-5: 3.3 yards
Carries 6-10: 4.4 yards
Carries 11-15: 4.9 yards
Carries 16+: 4.8 yards

Sadly, however, as the Herald points out, Brown has taken at least 20 carries just eight times in two seasons with the team. In those eight games, the Dolphins are 6-2. In games in which he doesn't reach the mark, they are 7-15. Furthermore, in five of the seven "less than 20 carry" wins, Ricky Williams got at least 10 carries - indicating that, generally speaking, the team wins when it runs the ball.

Cam Cameron came out this week and stated that the lack of attention to the ground game was a function of "the way the first two games have played out." In the Week 2 blowout loss to the Cowboys, this excuse holds water. However, there was no excuse for Week 1, when the Dolphins led at the half and were engaged in a low-scoring slugfest that eventually went to overtime.

I'm no genius and I fully understand that the Dolphins offensive line stinks, but the numbers above are difficult to refute, and it's obvious the Fish need to give Ronnie Brown the damn ball and see what happens. It's a shame Brown carries the stigma of not having the ability to carry a team as an every-down workhorse despite the fact he's never been given the opportunity to prove or disprove that theory.

Or maybe the Dolphins should have jumped in on the Matt Schaub bidding during the offseason. He's obviously just as good, if not better, than Brown.