The Warning Tracht

March 8, 2010 12:38pm CST

After taking part in several real drafts already this season (a fantasy baseball addict has gotta do what he's gotta do) and reading every media outlet that I can get my hands on, the following is a rundown of spring training hype mongers based on media reports and early draft results.

Note: Players and analysis that didn't fit in this space can be found at my blog, Crowdtheplate.com. You can also leave any questions or comments about this article at the blog.

Spring Training Hype Mongers
-Julio Borbon , OF, TEX: There is something to be said for the leadoff man in one of baseball's great hitter's parks. When that leadoff man swiped 19 bases in 46 games during his major league debut and had 53 steals as a minor leaguer in '08, that hype can blow the roof off. ESPN's Buster Olney added fuel to the fire with his recent blog post comment:

"I heard this from somebody within the Rangers' circle: 'Tell your friends who play fantasy baseball that they should take Borbon.'"

If you read this spot last season you know that I've been a huge Borbon supporter since he joined the Rangers farm system, and I think the hype is very much warranted. You'll likely be seeing Borbon on many of my teams as a "cheap" 40 steal player, relatively speaking.

-Aroldis Chapman, P, CIN: Everyone's favorite offseason acquisition out of Cuba has been getting hyped even before he signed in the majors, and that hype continues in Reds camp. The Cincinnati Enquirer recently wrote about Chapman's late-February throwing session, making it sound like the Reds struck gold. While I don't doubt Chapman's long-term talents, there are two factors which will prevent me from adding him in any non-keeper leagues this season.

1) Chapman hasn't shown control in his career. For the Cuban League stats that are available, Chapman has never posted a sub-4.0 BB/9 rate. That is a serious concern as he faces more disciplined hitters in the States.

2) According to Jeff Passan, Chapman's contract becomes a monumental three-year, $25.25 pact if he's up before mid-May. That money is before he is even arbitration eligible. The Reds would likely have to be blown away by Chapman for him to have any chance of making it up early in the season, in other words.

-Cole Hamels, SP, PHI: Hamels' work on extending his pitch arsenal has been well-documented this spring, and it seems article after article is explaining his new outlook after a down year with the Phils. Of course, it must be noted that Hamels' K/BB rate was nearly identical last season to 2008, which is a very good thing. I bought into his 2010 campaign even before he set foot in spring training.

-Jason Heyward, OF, ATL: If you haven't heard the hype surrounding Heyward this spring, you just haven't been paying attention. There are more superlatives thrown Heyward's way seemingly every day. While two weeks ago we knew that the elite outfield prospect was going to compete for a spot on Atlanta's roster, now Braves brass would be shocked if he's not starting on opening day and he reminds Bobby Cox of Hank Aaron. But a quote in a recent Buster Olney blog brings the hype to a new level:

"Heard this from a talent evaluator, about Jason Heyward: 'His trend line is a straight line up -- so straight that it's almost backward. His numbers indicate he could be Albert Pujols as an outfielder.'"

In a recent 10-team NL-only mock draft as well as a real draft, I witnessed Heyward going in Round 11. He was drafted ahead of the likes of Chris Coghlan, Conor Jackson, Cody Ross and Josh Willingham. While I love Heyward's upside as much as anyone and he has the ability to be a game changer this year, I don't know that I'd select him ahead of any of the safer outfielders listed above. Heyward has still only played three games above Double-A, and the Braves have either Matt Diaz or Melky Cabrera as a fallback plan if Heyward struggles. The "safe" 20-homer seasons that you'll get out of Ross or Willingham in a weak NL outfielder pool are too much to pass up. Of course, in a keeper league I throw this comparison out the window and may even go up to Round 7 or 8 to get him.

-Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN: The rookie that arguably out-pitched Johan Santana in Minnesota is back, or so it seems from the spring hype. There have been multiple stories about how great he looked in winter ball, and this spring the hype continues. Buster Olney had a lengthy recent blurb on how good Liriano is feeling.

This situation reminds me of Ervin Santana in 2008. Santana was coming off of a highly disappointing season in which he produced a 5.76 ERA in 150 innings for the Angels, but he was able to find himself in the offseason and turned in nearly a Cy Young performance.

But there is still one major point of concern for those looking to push Liriano up the draft board. Like Santana, Liriano has a long history of arm injuries that could make all of this hype a moot point. His inability to recover fully from Tommy John surgery at least partially explained why his velocity was down last season, and he also had shoulder issues in the minors. In other words, he's not going to be in my top 30 starting pitchers no matter where the hype takes him.

-Brian Matusz, SP, BAL: Matusz is a strong candidate for AL Rookie of the Year despite pitching in the tough AL East. The fourth overall draft choice in 2008, Matusz had a strong debut for the O's last season by posting a 2.71 K/BB ratio in eight starts with five wins. Buster Olney's Sunday blog showed high praise from one talent evaluator:

"He's like Cole Hamels but with a better fastball. He's got a chance to be really special, with that stuff and command. Last spring, the pitcher I liked, as an up-and-comer, was Josh Johnson. Now, it's [Matusz]. If he's not the best young pitcher in the American League, I'd be shocked."

I don't disagree with Matusz's upside, though I am still somewhat nervous about pushing him above the first or second tier of starting pitchers given his competition in the AL East. Last season the Yanks, Boston, Tampa Bay and Toronto finished in the top eight in MLB in runs scored. For some perspective, Jeremy Guthrie - who started 33 games in 2009 for Baltimore - faced those interdivision rivals 15 times. If Matusz comes anywhere close to that total, a sub-4.00 ERA would be an incredible feat.

-Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS: Strasburg was considered the Nats' savior even before they drafted him first overall last season. He filled stadiums in the Arizona Fall League in October and has perhaps been the most hyped pitching prospect since Mark Prior. The Chicago Tribune's most recent write up is just one example of the seemingly thousands of articles talking about his upside.

While we do keep hearing that Strasburg will probably start the season in the minors since the Nationals want to play it safe, one look at the starting rotation the team will be strolling out to start the season shows that it may not be long for Strasburg to make an impact.

Obviously, one of the other main concerns for Strasburg will be his ability to earn wins with one of the NL's worst teams. However, they did finish in the middle of the NL in runs scored last season (ninth) and have partially addressed their leaky bullpen from one year ago with the acquisitions of Matt Capps and Brian Bruney along with the perceived imminent promotion of 2009 first-round pick Drew Storen. The prediction here is an early May promotion, more than one strikeout per inning, double-digit wins and production just a tick below what we saw from Tommy Hanson during his rookie campaign.


-Read further "hype" analysis on B.J. Upton and Delmon Young at Crowdtheplate.com now.