Sabermetric Primer: ABA

March 2, 2010 5:44pm CST

Here is a conundrum for you. When is one not one? No, I'm not operating in some alternative universe outside of the Matrix with Morpheus (if you don't get that pop culture reference, you need to start seeing some movies). I'm simply asking when is one not necessarily equivalent to one. If you are interested in riddles, or just want to know what the hell I'm talking about, please read on.


AVERAGE BASES ALLOWED

Average Bases Allowed, henceforth ABA, is an innovative way to look at pitcher's effectiveness and is designed to replace WHIP (Walks + Hits / IP), though I would settle for it to be used alongside WHIP until it catches on. What spawned the idea of ABA? Consider the following simple comparison.

Pitcher A allows one hit and one walk in two innings. Therefore his WHIP is 1.00 (two base runners in two innings).

Pitcher B allows one hit and one walk in two innings. Therefore his WHIP is 1.00 (two base runners in two innings).

So, according to WHIP, both pitchers recorded the same mark. However, does that mean that they were equally effective? What if we added a bit more depth to our example.

Pitcher A: He allowed a walk and a single in his two innings.
Pitcher B: He allowed a walk and a home run in his two innings.

Therefore...

It is reasonable to posit that Pitcher A's ERA was zero, after all he gave up only two bases, while Pitcher B's ERA was 9.00. Why? If Pitcher B walked a guy and then gave up a home run to the next batter he would have allowed two runs in two innings - hence his ERA would be 9.00. So as you can plainly see, while the hurlers may have the same WHIP total, the actual result of their performances in the real world could be drastically different. Because of this simply yet often overlooked fact, I went about trying to set up a way in which I could analyze a pitcher's performances in a more equitable way.

Instead of using hits and walks as does WHIP, I decided to use total bases allowed and walks to figure out ABA (because WHIP leaves out things like HBP, I made the decision to do the same with ABA). The reason for this is simple.

Is it more important to know how many batters are allowed to reach base or is it more important to know how many bases they received when they reached base?

Does it not stand to reason that the pitcher who allows fewer bases to those batters who do reach base would have a better chance of limiting the amount of runners that score? Let's take a look at an example to illustrate.

In 2009 Gavin Floyd and Ubaldo Jimenez had identical WHIP marks of 1.23. Does this fact mean that they were equally effective hurlers in 2009 at limiting hitters? Let's use ABA to investigate to see if we can form a more nuanced opinion.

Floyd: 122 singles, 34 doubles, one triples, 21 home runs and 59 BBs in 193 IP
Jimenez: 135 singles, 32 doubles, three triples, 13 home runs and 85 BBs in 218 IP

Remember, according to WHIP both pitchers were equal with a 1.23 mark. This is not the case according to ABA. Here is the formula that the metric employs.

ABA = (TBA + BB / IP)

With that simply formula laid out, let us go about determining how each hurler did in 2009.

Floyd: 277 total bases + 59 BB in 193 IP = 1.74 ABA.
Jimenez: 260 total bases + 85 BB in 218 IP = 1.58 ABA.

As you can see, if you were only looking at each pitchers WHIP columns last season, you might miss the fact that Jimenez actually did a better job at limiting baseball runners last season thanks in large part to the substantial difference in their home run totals. Thanks to ABA we can state that, despite equal WHIP marks, that Jimenez was the more effective pitcher last season. Moreover, there were four other men who pitched at least 160 innings last season and posted a WHIP of 1.23. Care to see how their ABA marks stacked up?

1.51 - Clayton Kershaw
1.70 - Jon Lester
1.81 - J.A. Happ
1.93 - Ross Ohlendorf

As you can tell, WHIP really doesn't tell the whole story. ABA may not either, but it certainly is a much more accurate gauge of how a pitcher is performing.

One other note must be offered before I move to the analysis.

The lower ones ABA, the better, but it doesn't read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.39, the league average ABA of all pitchers who tossed at least 160 innings in 2009 was 1.84.

Here is a rough key you can employ for ABA.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Akin to lining up a pitching machine

In what follows we will break down the starters from 2009, and in PART II I will take a look at those who toiled out of the bullpen.


ABA: STARTERS

Listed below are the 2009 leaders in ABA.

2009 ABA LEADERS
(Minimum 160 IP)

Player	W	L	ERA	BB	TBA	INN	WHIP	ABA
Carpenter, Chris	17	4	2.24	38	214	192.2	1.01	1.31
Lincecum, Tim	15	7	2.48	68	236	225.1	1.05	1.35
Greinke, Zack	16	8	2.16	51	285	229.1	1.07	1.47
Hernandez, Felix	19	5	2.49	71	280	238.2	1.14	1.47
Vazquez, Javier	15	10	2.87	44	281	219.1	1.03	1.48
Kershaw, Clayton	8	8	2.79	91	168	171	1.23	1.51
Johnson, Josh	15	5	3.23	58	260	209	1.16	1.52
Pineiro, Joel	15	12	3.49	27	306	214	1.14	1.56
Haren, Dan	14	10	3.14	38	321	229.1	1.00	1.57
Jimenez, Ubaldo	15	12	3.47	85	260	218	1.23	1.58
Halladay, Roy	17	10	2.79	35	349	239	1.13	1.61
Wainwright, Adam	19	8	2.63	66	309	233	1.21	1.61
Sabathia, CC	19	8	3.37	67	306	230	1.15	1.62
Wolf, Randy	11	7	3.23	58	294	214.1	1.10	1.64
Verlander, Justin	19	9	3.45	63	333	240	1.18	1.65
Jurrjens, Jair	14	10	2.6	75	280	215	1.21	1.65
Lilly, Ted	12	9	3.1	36	258	177	1.06	1.66
Wells, Randy	12	10	3.05	46	230	165.1	1.28	1.67
Cain, Matt	14	8	2.89	73	296	217.2	1.18	1.69
Cain, Matt	14	8	2.89	73	296	217.7	1.18	1.69
Lester, Jon	15	8	3.41	64	281	203.3	1.23	1.70
Lee, Cliff	14	13	3.22	43	351	231.7	1.24	1.70

Chris Carpenter led the way last season. He didn't walk anyone, and he allowed only seven homers on the year, which helped to lead to his NL leading 2.24 ERA. A fine season indeed.

Tim Lincecum, the most dominating hurler in the game last season, allowed only 10 big flies while batters hit a mere .206 off of him.

Zack Greinke, the AL Cy Young winner, has pinpoint control. He walked only 51 men, allowed just 11 homers, and held batters to a .230 batting average. Rather impressive totals for an AL hurler.

Clayton Kershaw was mentioned above. His WHIP wasn't great because of all the walks, but few dominated hitters like he did. To read of his domination click on the link to Breaking Down: Clayton Kershaw.

Joel Pineiro's name jumps out a bit because he is s completely different pitcher from the others in that he strikes no one out (just 105 last year). However, that power sinker of his limited batters to a mere 11 homers and just barely a hit per inning. Limiting extra base hits obvious is key to this measure, and Joel faired very well in that area last season.

Further down the list we find the name of Ted Lilly. You may not have realized it but Lilly was fifth in baseball last year with his 1.06 WHIP. He falls down to 17th in ABA. The 22 homers allowed certainly didn't help, but he limited the walks with 36 in 27 starts, and that helped to offset the long balls effectively. Fellow Cub Randy Wells was just behind Lilly in the rankings. His sinker kept the ball in the yard (14 homers), and batters hit .261 off him.

Others who missed out on the top-20 in ABA include the following pitchers.

1.77 - Josh Beckett (1.19 WHIP)
Beckett just missed out on the leader board though he and Lester obviously form a mighty impressive top of the rotation duo in Boston. The Sox added John Lackey to the mix, and his mark of 1.80 gives the Red Sox three of the top-30 arms in ABA. Who wants to face that club now?

1.80 - Brett Anderson (1.28 WHIP)
Anderson actually finished just slightly ahead of another young lefty, the Phillies' J.A. Happ at 1.80. Though their ABA marks are nearly identical, if you have to pick one of the two this year clearly the man from Oakland should be your choice.

1.83 - Matt Garza (1.26 WHIP)
The 8-12 record is completely deceiving, proving yet again how ineffective that records are when judging performance. Garza finished with a better ABA mark than 15 games winners Scott Baker (1.84), Jason Marquis (1.86) and Bronson Arroyo (1.89).

1.87 - Ryan Dempster (1.30 WHIP)
Surprisingly, the Cubs star finished the year with the same mark as the Giants' Barry Zito.

1.90 - Edwin Jackson (1.26 WHIP)
Personally, I'm doubtful of a repeat from Jackson who finished 45th in ABA last year. He shared his 1.90 mark with Jered Weaver, Andy Pettitte, and yes, Zach Duke.

1.94 - Cole Hamels (1.29 WHIP)
There are quite a few pitchers that barely broke the 2.00 barrier last season. Here are a few in the 1.90 range: Yovani Gallardo (1.93), Rickey Nolasco (1.94), A.J. Burnett (1.95), Jonathan Sanchez (1.98).

Remember from the key above, that any time a pitcher gets over the 2.00 mark, there are some real concerns about just how valuable an arm he possesses.

2.01 - Max Scherzer (1.34 WHIP)
The Tigers are counting on this fireballer to last 180+ innings with his dominating stuff. Max's ABA mark was only slightly behind that of the man he will be asked to replace - Edwin Jackson.

2.09 - Brad Penny (1.40 WHIP)
Penny sits one tick behind Derek Lowe (2.08) and one ahead of Doug Davis (2.10). That isn't exactly heartening now is it?

And the worst qualifying pitcher according to ABA? How about, the one and only, Jeff Suppan who posted a mark of 2.51 which was almost double that of league leader Chris Carpenter.


In PART II of this report, I will detail the ABA performance of hurlers who failed to toss 160 innings with a particular emphasis placed on relief pitchers.


Here are all the pitchers who tossed at least 160 frames last season.

Player	ABA
Carpenter, Chris SP STL	1.31
Lincecum, Tim SP SF	1.35
Greinke, Zack SP KC	1.47
Hernandez, Felix SP SEA	1.47
Vazquez, Javier SP NYY	1.48
Kershaw, Clayton SP LA	1.51
Johnson, Josh SP FLA	1.52
Pineiro, Joel SP ANA	1.56
Haren, Dan SP ARI	1.57
Jimenez, Ubaldo SP COL	1.58
Halladay, Roy SP PHI	1.61
Wainwright, Adam SP STL	1.61
Sabathia, CC SP NYY	1.62
Wolf, Randy SP MIL	1.64
Verlander, Justin SP DET	1.65
Jurrjens, Jair SP ATL	1.65
Lilly, Ted SP CHC	1.66
Wells, Randy SP CHC	1.67
Cain, Matt SP SF	1.69
Lester, Jon SP BOS	1.70
Lee, Cliff SP SEA	1.70
Floyd, Gavin SP CHW	1.74
Rodriguez, Wandy SP HOU	1.75
Feldman, Scott SP TEX	1.75
Washburn, Jarrod SP DET	1.76
Zambrano, Carlos SP CHC	1.77
Beckett, Josh SP BOS	1.77
Correia, Kevin SP SD	1.78
Santana, Johan SP NYM	1.79
Lackey, John SP BOS	1.80
Billingsley, Chad SP LA	1.80
Anderson, Brett SP OAK	1.80
Happ, J.A. SP PHI	1.81
Oswalt, Roy SP HOU	1.83
Garza, Matt SP TB	1.83
Baker, Scott SP MIN	1.84
Marquis, Jason SP WAS	1.86
Niemann, Jeff SP TB	1.86
Zito, Barry SP SF	1.87
Dempster, Ryan SP CHC	1.87
Buehrle, Mark SP CHW	1.88
Arroyo, Bronson SP CIN	1.89
Pettitte, Andy SP NYY	1.90
Jackson, Edwin SP ARI	1.90
Weaver, Jered SP ANA	1.90
Duke, Zach SP PIT	1.90
Danks, John SP CHW	1.91
Porcello, Rick SP DET	1.91
Gallardo, Yovani SP MIL	1.93
Ohlendorf, Ross SP PIT	1.93
Nolasco, Ricky SP FLA	1.94
Hamels, Cole SP PHI	1.94
Lannan, John SP WAS	1.94
Burnett, A.J. SP NYY	1.95
Millwood, Kevin SP BAL	1.97
Maholm, Paul SP PIT	1.98
Sanchez, Jonathan O. SP SF	1.98
De La Rosa, Jorge SP COL	1.98
Hammel, Jason SP COL	1.99
Blackburn, Nick SP MIN	1.99
Blanton, Joe SP PHI	2.00
Garland, Jon SP SD	2.01
Scherzer, Max SP DET	2.01
Shields, James SP TB	2.02
Romero, Ricky SP TOR	2.06
Cueto, Johnny SP CIN	2.06
Pavano, Carl SP MIN	2.07
Pelfrey, Mike SP NYM	2.07
Moyer, Jamie SP PHI	2.07
Lowe, Derek SP ATL	2.08
Penny, Brad SP STL	2.09
Davis, Doug SP MIL	2.10
Saunders, Joe SP ANA	2.11
Harang, Aaron SP CIN	2.11
Tallet, Brian SP TOR	2.19
Hernandez, Livan SP WAS	2.19
Cahill, Trevor SP OAK	2.21
Guthrie, Jeremy SP BAL	2.26
Looper, Braden SP MIL	2.35
Suppan, Jeff SP MIL	2.51