Breaking Down: Bobby Jenks

March 1, 2010 6:21pm CST

Bobby Jenks is lighter in the pants, as he reportedly dropped 20 pounds to get into peak shape this offseason. Will his foray into physical fitness result in success in 2010?


2009 REVIEW - BOBBY JENKS
3-4, 3.71 ERA, 49 Ks, 1.27 WHIP, 29 saves in 53.1 IP

For the first time in four years, Jenks failed to record at least 30 saves. Bobby actually continued a 3-year run of declining saves totals going from 41, to 40 to 30 to last year's 29. Jenks also posted a 3-year high in ERA and WHIP in 2009, not to mention posting the worst BAA mark of that stretch (.250) while tossing the fewest innings since his rookie season (he had been over 61 innings each year from 2006-08). Is there a reason to suspect bad luck or something anomalous in that pitching line, or has he simply regressed on the mound?

After last season, Jenks signed a one-year deal for $7.5 million to remain with the White Sox as he avoided the arbitration process (he'll make $1.9 million more than he did in 2009).


THE GOOD
Being that he is a closer, let's start with how effective he is at doing his job, and that is closing out White Sox' victories. As stated above, Jenks has posted at least 29 saves in each of the past four seasons. There are only seven men in the group that have accomplished that: Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, Francisco Cordero and of course Jenks. If that doesn't give you a warm spot inside, how about the fact that his total of 140 saves the past four years is sixth in baseball (K-Rod is way out in the lead with 184 thanks to his record 62 in 2008). Hey, the bottom line for closers is saves, and he has done that pretty much as well as anyone the past four years. He's also been effective at converting save chances with 140 in 160 chances, good for an 87.5 percent conversion rate - a tremendous mark.

As far as his skills go, here's the breakdown.

Back in the day this guy threw the ball everywhere (in his first pro season he walked 7.5 batters per nine innings). As the years have progressed, Jenks has done a much better job of throwing strikes, and in three of the past four seasons he has bettered the league walk rate (the outlier was 2006 when his walk rate was 4.00 per nine). If you add the control to the saves, Jenks is one of just four men to have at least 29 saves with a BB/9 rate of below 2.75 in each of the past two seasons.

In addition to the growth in his ability to control the strike zone, Jenks saw a massive rebound in the strikeout department last season. Jenks owns a solid 8.50 strikeout per nine inning mark in his career, but that mark dropped to an alarming 5.55 in 2008 (was he injured?). Last season Jenks didn't quite reach his career level, but he was just behind it as he added nearly three batters to his K/9 mark finishing with a 8.27 K/9 mark. Solid strikeout and walk totals, when combined together, led to a solid 3.06 K/BB ratio in 2009. Clearly this is yet another measure in which he profiles well.

A few more tidbits.

(1) He posted a career best 80.1 percent LOB mark last season.
(2) His career G/F ratio is a strong 1.88. That number did dip to 1.47 last year, a career worst, but that is likely a mere artifact of randomness unless we see a replication this season.


THE BAD

Let's start out where we just left off.

An 80+ percent LOB mark is exceedingly high (the big league average is about 70 percent). He's proven that he can almost reach that 80 point mark before, it was 78.7 percent in 2008, but that is the realm of titans. If his mark slips back to a still strong 75 percent, his career rate, what will that mean for his ERA? You can figure that one out right?

Secondly, that G/F ratio was still strong, but it was a 5-year worst. Coming on the heels of a tremendous 2.04 mark in 2008 I'm almost wiling to give Jenks a free pass, but this is still something to keep an eye on. Let's further this discussion with some other numbers. Listed are Jenks' 2009 performance compare to his lifetime ratios in line drives / ground balls / fly balls.

2009: 18/49/33
Career: 18/54/28

The line drive rates are spot on, but there is a significant shift in the ground and fly ball rates. Furthermore Jenks, who allowed that career worst fly ball rate last season, was also saddled with a HR/F rate of 17 percent, nearly double his 9.6 career mark. One would think two things should happen. (1) His fly ball rate will recede. (2) His HR/F rate will recede. At 28 years of age and with his track record this seems fairly certain, but it is still an area worth monitoring.

Jenks has always had a lot of success against lefties, and in his career he has a 1.22 WHIP and .229 batting average against when facing southpaws. So what the heck happened last year when those numbers shot into the stratosphere (1.63 WHIP, .309 BAA)? Again, logic would dictate that this was a mere hiccup, an artifact of a small sample size if you will, but it still bears watching.

As for his usage, there are some slight signs of slippage there as well. Jenks has seen his games pitched total regress each of the past three years which has also led to a reduction in his innings pitched total.

2006: 67 games, 69.2 IP
2007: 66 games, 65.0 IP
2008: 57 games, 61.2 IP
2009: 52 games, 53.1 IP

He seems to have picked a great time to stop drinking and to lose some weight (read on for more about these two aspects of his outlook).


MOVING FORWARD

Bobby Jenks made a lot of positive changes this offseason.

First, he stopped drinking. "It was to the point where it was easy for me to lose control. I got to the point where not for my sake and my family's sake, but everyone's around me, it was just time to back off and live my life not for myself."

Second, he lost 20 lbs. While he was working on his new svelte figure though, he didn't throw as much as he had in the past. Because Bobby worked so hard on his conditioning, plus Bobby had another child, plus the weather in Chicago is bad,'' White Sox' pitching coach Don Cooper said. ''And he told me he had a little difficulty getting somebody to catch him. So he was just playing more catch than actually pitching off a mound." Odd, but he still has plenty of time to round into form (pardon the pun).

However, there are a couple of concerns.

(1) Jenks only has that one year deal, and this means there is no cost certainty with him which makes him a prime target to be dealt sometime during the year. Will the White Sox hold on to him or will they move him? Secondarily, if they do move him, will his new team use him in the ninth inning or as a set up man?

(2) Matt Thornton is a better pitcher - period. Pretty much anyway you look at it Thornton comes out ahead. He's also cheaper with roughly $5.25 million due from the White Sox for 2010 and 2011. He might be five years older (he is 33), but oh does this lefty have some sick stuff. Look at the numbers from 2009.

Thornton: 2.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10.82 K/9, 2.49 BB/9, 4.35 K/BB
B. Jenks: 3.71 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.27 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.06 K/BB

Thornton has one disadvantage in that he is left-handed, but he is certainly the more dominating force out of the pen, especially if you also toss in both hurlers work in 2008.

Bobby Jenks still possesses the skill to be an elite major league closer. However, the uncertainty of his contract situation casts some doubt as to whether or not he will end the year as the White Sox closer, especially with the infinitely cheaper Thornton in the pen (if J.J. Putz proves to be healthy, he would give the Sox yet another reason to move Jenks). As such, Jenks is one of the more risky options on draft day amongst the top bullpen arms, though again that risk is mostly do to an uncertainty with his role and not really with his skill when he is on the hill.