27-year-olds: Hitters

March 10, 2010 4:30pm CST

Bigfoot.

The Loch Ness Monster.

Alien Visitors.

Leprechauns.

The Magical Age of 27.

What do those five things have in common? Some would say they are all urban legends. Well, maybe not the first four, but certainly the last one.

Each year I take a look at some of the 27-year-olds who "should" break out according to the conventional believe that something magical happens when a player's birth certificate hits 27. Does the data support that belief, or should this long held assumption be thrown out with the bath water?

In this follow-up piece I will once again cherry pick a group of hitters to review who will are 27 years old in 2010 (Part II will deal with pitchers). However, before I do my preview of 2010, let's do a review of 2008 and 2009 to see which 27-year-olds had that "breakout campaign."

PART I - HITTERS

2008 Review - These are hitters we reviewed prior to the 2008 season.

Hank Blalock - Another injury-plagued season limited him to just 258 effective at-bats (.287-12-38).
Career Year? NO

Carl Crawford - Injuries limited him to his worst production since his rookie season (.273-8-57-69-25).
Career Year? NO

Ryan Doumit - Finally put it all together with a true breakout effort (.318-15-69-71).
Career Year? YES

Ryan Garko - Regressed in batting average (.289 to .273), home runs (21 to 14), OBP (.359 to .346) and OPS (.842 to .750) from '07 to '08.
Career Year? NO

Joey Gathright - Has never been able to break through even with his blazing speed. Picked up a career-best 279 at-bats last season, leading to a career-high 21 steals, but he also had his lowest batting average (.254) and OBP (.311) in four years.
Career Year? NO

Jonny Gomes - You're kidding right? A 20-homer bat in 2006, he was given only 154 at-bats last season (.182-8-21).
Career Year? NO

Curtis Granderson - There was no chance he could repeat his '07 effort (.302-23-74-122-26), but he certainly did a fine job despite being injured to start the year (.280-22-66-112-12).
Career Year? NO

Josh Hamilton - The breakout star of baseball last season, Hamilton entered the year with a mere 298 at-bats and proceeded to destroy AL pitching to the tune of a .304 average, 32 home runs and 130 RBI.
Career Year? YES

Maicer Izturis - Couldn't match his '07 effort, as he lost 50 percent of his home runs (three), 14 RBI (37) and .020 points off his batting average (.269).
Career Year? NO

Mike Jacobs - Had the worst batting average (.247) and OBP (.299) of his four-year career, but we will give him a "yes" here since he posted career bests in home runs (32) and RBI (93).
Career Year? YES

Felipe Lopez - Though he blistered the ball with the Cards (.385 with 30 runs in 43 games), his overall numbers were merely average (.283-6-46-64-8).
Career Year? NO

Brandon Phillips - After a 30/30 campaign in '07, Phillips regressed in home runs (-9), RBI (-16), runs (-27), steals (-9), batting average (-.027), OBP (-.019), SLG (-.043) and OPS (-.062).
Career Year? NO

Kevin Kouzmanoff - A bit like cheating here, as this was just his second season and he picked up 140 more at-bats than in 2007 on his way to hitting .260-23-84.
Career Year? YES

Justin Morneau - Morneau was great (.300-23-129 with a .873 OPS), but not quite as good as he was in 2006 when he won the MVP (.321-34-130 with a .934 OPS).
Career Year? NO

Alex Rios - Rios did almost double his previous career high for steals with 32, but he failed to match his '07 effort in home runs (-9), RBI (-6), runs (-23), AVG (-.006), OBP (-.017) and SLG (-.054).
Career Year? NO

Cody Ross - He hit .260-22-73 in 461 at-bats for his best season, though in 2006-07 his numbers were nearly identical (.269-25-85 in 442 at-bats). The only difference was playing time.
Career Year? YES

Kelly Shoppach - Got his chance due to the injury to Victor Martinez and he took full advantage of it leading AL catchers in home runs (21).
Career Year? YES

Chris Snyder - I will give him the nod here even though his average fell .015 points while his BB/K rate fell to 0.55. He did hit three more home runs while knocking in 17 more runs in only eight more at-bats versus 2007.
Career Year? YES

Nick Swisher - Four-year lows in average (.219), RBI (69) and OPS (.743) clearly point out the depths he fell to last season.
Career Year? NO

Mark Teahen - It was the second-best season of his career (.255-15-59-66), but he actually produced better numbers in his '06 campaign (.290-18-69-70) despite 179 fewer at-bats in that year.
Career Year? NO

Mark Teixeira - Tremendous for sure (.308-33-121-102), Tex will probably never match his '05 effort (.301-43-144-112), one of the best ever by a switch hitter.
Career Year? NO

Chad Tracy - Injuries held him to just 273 at-bats and eight home runs. Was it really just four years ago that he burst on the scene, hitting .308-27-72?
Career Year? NO

Shane Victorino - His numbers have improved in each of the past three years, and last season's effort was a special one for his fantasy owners (.293-14-58-102-36).
Career Year? YES

By my count that is 15 players who failed to step up their game and only eight that did. Do you still believe in the vaunted "27-year-old breakout campaign" theory?


2009 Review - These are hitters we reviewed prior to the 2009 season.

Jorge Cantu - Had a nice year with his second 100-RBI season, but lost 13 homers from his 2008 total of 29.
Career Year? NO

Shin-Soo Choo - He hit .300 while going 20/20 in his first season of more than 317 at-bats.
Career Year? YES

Andre Ethier - Continued to grow and has now reached the level of borderline All-Star. Ethier hit 31 homers with 106 RBI and 92 runs scored for the Dodgers.
Career Year?YES

Adrian Gonzalez - Blasted a career-best 40 homers with a .958 OPS (previous best was .871). At the same time he failed to reach 100 RBI or runs for first time in three years (he had 99 and 90), while hitting .277, his worst mark as a regular.
Career Year? NO

J.J. Hardy - Back woes limited him most of the year, and after back-to-back 24-homer, 74-RBI or better seasons, his regression to 11 and 47 was alarming.
Career Year? NO

Corey Hart - Injured early in the year, he eventually had to have his appendix removed later in the year. After back-to-back 20/20 seasons, he barely hit 20 combined last year (12 homers, 11 steals).
Career Year? NO

Conor Jackson - Picked up the Ebola virus or something like that last year (actually Valley Fever). He is fine now, but last season was a pathetic offering (.182-1-14 in 99 at-bats).
Career Year? NO

Kelly Johnson - Struggled mightily before handing the job over to Martin Prado. Went from a top-10 option at second in 2008-09 to not even top-25 (.224-8-29-47-7).
Career Year? NO

Ian Kinsler - Hit only .253, but with 31 homers, 86 RBI and 31 steals. I'll give him a thumbs up on the season.
Career Year? YES

Jason Kubel - Had a career-best average, homer total and RBI mark (.300-28-103).
Career Year? YES

Nate McLouth - Failed to match his 2008 effort (.276-26-94-113-23) in 2009 (.256-20-70-86-19).
Career Year? NO

Mike Napoli - His production last year was good (.272-20-56), but he basically matched his 2008 effort (.273-20-49) despite 155 extra at-bats last season.
Career Year? NO

Jhonny Peralta - His .254 average and homer total (11) were career worsts for a full season. Also posted his worst OPS (.690).
Career Year? NO

Carlos Quentin - Never responded from that wrist injury of 2008 and basically produced half of what he did in '08 hitting .236 with 21 homers, 56 RBI and 47 runs scored.
Career Year? NO

Alexei Ramirez - He lost .013 points, six homers and nine RBI from 2008 while seeing his OPS plummet .069 points.
Career Year? NO

Grady Sizemore - Had multiple injuries limiting him to five-year lows in all five fantasy categories (.248-18-64-73-13).
Career Year? NO

By my count that is 12 players who failed to step up their game and only four that did.


2010 PREVIEW

Miguel Cabrera - It's gonna take a hell of an effort for him to have a career year given that his established bests are .339-37-127-112 with a .998 OPS.

Robinson Cano - Coming off a .320 average with a career-best 25 homers, he too may struggle for a career effort.

Stephen Drew - He's been pretty solid two years running, and it seems like he could break through in the coming campaign.

Yunel Escobar - He's improved his homers, RBI and runs in each of the past two seasons. Can he take yet another step up in 2010?

Edwin Encarnacion - Injuries held him down last year (.225-13-39). It remains to be seen if he'll ever break out, but he did hit 26 homers in 2008 and .289 with 76 RBI in 2007.

Franklin Gutierrez - His 5x5 numbers were strong last year (.283-18-70-85-16), but his skill set doesn't seem to suggest that he has anything more to give.

Chris Iannetta - Will Miguel Olivo limit his at-bats to keep him from that first 20-homer season?

Howie Kendrick - Howie hit a robust .358 over his final 48 games, and in his career that average of his sits at .302. If he could only stay healthy for a full season.

Adam Lind - Busted out last year, hitting .305-35-114 as he finally converted those doubles into homers. A repeat would be great - expecting an increase would be foolish.

Joe Mauer - I put the odds of him bettering his AL MVP season of 2009 at about the same percentage of me marrying Jennifer Love Hewitt, and as great a guy as I am, that's a fairly small percentage.

Miguel Montero - His first season of significant work resulted in a great effort (.294-16-59). Will a return to health from Chris Snyder allow Miguel to improve on those numbers?

Hunter Pence - If he could just learn how to take a walk (his career BB/K mark is 0.38). Pence hasn't shown much growth in two years.

Mark Reynolds - The stars seemed to align for Reynolds last season. Most prognosticators are expecting a step back, not forward, in 2010.

Kurt Suzuki - The A's backstop had a strong year (.274-15-88-74-8), and the club thinks he can hit 20 homers and steal 15 bases this year. We'll see.

Joey Votto - The average might regress (.322), but the power (25 HR, 84 RBI) could increase with a full season of at-bats.

David Wright - After last year's debacle (.307-10-72-88-27), dreams of a career-best effort in the coming season have certainly been scuttled.


I'll take a look at the pitchers in Part II.