Talking ADP

February 26, 2010 12:53pm CST

This week, I want to focus on trends by position to see how things are shaking out now that mock draft season is kicking into overdrive. I was in a meeting yesterday about NFBC and the participation numbers are tremendous, so I know a lot of you are mock drafting each night while watching Olympic curling as you practice for your chance to be the next Lindy Hinkelman and take home a giant fat check. I am not even playing this year, but I am just as excited about attending the event at Citi Field in late March and I figure since the Mets cannot win anything there, one of you all might as well take home the title.

Catcher:
3 Biggest Gainers:

Matt Wieters: +12%

John Baker: +11%

Chris Iannetta: +7%

3 Biggest Droppers:

Alex Avila: -6%

Carlos Ruiz: -5%

Jason Varitek: -4%

I get the Wieters hype and how he can jump from 103 into the top 100 at 92 this late in the game. The catching position is always a struggle for fantasy players and the news in camp this spring is all over the place. Geovany Soto has lost 40 pounds while Russell Martin has gained 25 pounds. Jesus Flores isn't 100% and Rod Barajas just landed a job earlier this week. What I don't get is why Carlos Ruiz is falling. He plays in a great park and his BB/K ratio has improved each of the last four seasons from 0.63 to 0.86 to 1.16 up to 1.21 last season. If only he had more speed; despite that great plate discipline he will likely struggle to hit over .270. People seem to be forgetting that Ruiz hit .264/.357/.466 in the second half last year and hit six of his nine homers in that time. I made a deal to acquire Ruiz myself in a local league because I smell a breakout season for him where he finally gets into the double-digit home run plateau, but I must be the only one in that camp because he is being taken 30 spots after a backup catcher in Miguel Olivo. Ruiz is the best buying opportunity at catcher right now, by far.

First Base:

3 Biggest Gainers:

James Loney: +31%

Adam LaRoche: +23%

Justin Morneau: +12%

3 Biggest Droppers:

Carlos Delgado: -41%

Russell Branyan: -29%

Hank Blalock: -5%

Did I miss something or did Loney suddenly put on 40 pounds of muscle? His ADP climbed from 243 to 186 across the past two weeks - quite a large jump for a player who has been just consistent over the past two seasons. Loney is a lock to hit .290 with mid to high teens homers, which is nothing special from first base. He currently sits behind Chris Davis and Jorge Cantu - 26 spots behind the very risky Davis at that. Despite the large climb, Loney is still a good value because I think he belongs in front of Davis. If you are willing to take the batting average risk, Branyan is a solid grab, as well. He signs with Cleveland, is told that he will be the primary first baseman, and yet his ADP has dropped from 208 to 271 in two weeks. He is playing for another contract since his back failed him last July and if he can hit 31 homers in that spacious Safeco, certainly he can do it in Cleveland or in a division that includes the cozy US Cellular Field and the mostly crappy pitching in Kansas City.

Second Base:
3 Biggest Gainers:

Martin Prado: +29%

Placido Polanco: +15%

Maicer Izturis: +11%

3 Biggest Droppers:

Aaron Hill: -10%

Mark Ellis: - 6%

Dustin Pedroia: -5%

Seeing Prado make the big jump brings a smile to my face because I have been pimping him for awhile now and it looks as if people are starting to notice. He went from 287 to 223 in just two weeks, but that still leaves him 28 spots behind the oft-injured Rickie Weeks and 36 behind Orlando Hudson, who offers little upside at this stage of his career, so Prado still presents some value. The Red Sox said yesterday they might consider hitting Pedroia 5th in their lineup, which would negatively affect his fantasy value because that would cut into his at bats, runs, and potentially steals. It would enhance his RBI potential, though. I am surprised that Brian Roberts only suffered a 2% drop this week with the news coming out about a possible herniated disc in his back. If that problem lingers in camp, his ADP is going to drop rapidly.

Shortstop:
3 Biggest Gainers:

Erick Aybar: +14%

Everth Cabrera: +8%

Elvin Andrus: +8%

3 Biggest Droppers:

Cristian Guzman: -10%

Jose Reyes: -5%

Hanley Ramirez: -3%

It is great to see Cabrera get a nice spike even though he still falls 30 spots behind Marco Scutaro and 52 spots behind Orlando Cabrera. Consider the fact Cabrera did not embarrass himself last year at the big league level despite the fact that he had never played above Low-A baseball in his entire career. As a Rule V pick, he jumped over High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A and got a baptism by fire at the major league level in a division with Dan Haren, Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, Matt Cain, and Ubaldo Jimenez, just to name a few. Somehow he maintained a double-digit walk rate and had 28 extra base hits in 377 at bats. I can excuse his 23% strikeout rate last year given the tremendous learning curve he was up against. I have spent most of this ADP season targeting Cabrera because I think he is a tremendous value. Meanwhile, huzzah to drafters who are not buying the "best shape of his life" meme from Mets camp with Jose Reyes. I suspect once we see what he does in a game his status will change, but ignore this "best shape" noise that is floating around camps this time of year. After all, round is also a shape - just ask Pablo Sandoval.

Third Base:
3 Biggest Gainers:

Alex Gordon: +16%

Jhonny Peralta: +12%

Adrian Beltre: +11%

3 Biggest Droppers:

Casey Blake: -7%

Chone Figgins: -4%

Evan Longoria: -2%

Clearly, I have not drafted these past two weeks if Longoria has lost even a single ADP point. All kidding aside, the only noticeable movement here is Adrian Beltre finally getting some respect. I have been pushing him hard this offseason and the Rays fan in me did not want to see him sign with Boston because that park is a perfect fit for him. Despite the gain, he is still 50 spots behind Chipper Jones and 57 spots behind Ian Stewart? If that does not scream bargain, I do not know what does. Jones is clearly on the downside of his career and cannot stay healthy while Stewart cannot hit lefties enough to stay in the everyday lineup. Let your competition draft those guys there and sit back and take Beltre three rounds later and you will be much better off. I do not understand why Peralta is getting more love of late with his larger jump; he still trails Beltre by 20 spots and it should stay that way. Alex Gordon has gotten a lot of post-hype sleeper talk lately which has fueled his spike but his health issues and lefty problems still scare me.

Outfield:
3 Biggest Gainers:

Chase Headley: +15%

Scott Hairston: +15%

Vernon Wells: + 14%

3 Biggest Droppers:

Jack Cust: -41%

Michael Bourn: -22%

Grady Sizemore: -9%

Wow, Jack Cust is dropping like a Toyota stock certificate, as he went from 179 to 304. About the only thing we can expect from Cust is 20 homers, everything else is way to risky to target him, even at a 304 ADP. I believe Bourn's drop is more of an adjustment to him being overdrafted earlier this month. He was going before Shane Victorino in drafts two weeks ago and that should never happen. What you give up in steals "stepping down" from Bourn to Victorino you gain in homers, batting average, RBI, and runs scored. The San Diego duo spiking is a bit odd considering the Kouzmanoff traded happened awhile ago. Headley is a double-qualifier, which helps him out, but he is still a terrible hitter at home and unless they moved the fences in 15 feet or Hairston has gotten a HGH exemption, I don't get the jump because Hairston has never been able to stay healthy and the home park doesn't help his power value which is his only redeeming quality.

Starting Pitching:
3 Biggest Gainers:

Roy Halladay: +27%

Brett Anderson: +18%

Gio Gonzalez: + 12%

3 Biggest Droppers:

Chris Tillman: -16%

Jair Jurrjens: - 11%

Felix Hernandez: -10%

OK, so Felix dropped from 29 to 32 while Halladay jumped from 31 to 25, but Anderson going from 194 to 164 is news. What I don't get with Anderson is why he is only 38th amongst starting pitching. I know nobody stays up late to watch west coast baseball but c'mon people - he's 37 spots behind A.J. Burnett??? Anderson had a 3.03 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in the second half of the season with a 8.7 K/9, 4.3 strikeout to walk ratio, and won seven games in 101 innings pitched. Compare that to a 6.3 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, a 5.45 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in the first half and that is some tremendous in season growth for a 21-year-old. My only concern is 175 innings for such a young guy, so I don't expect him to go more than 180ish this season, but you're going to get a solid 180 innings of skills from him and I guarantee you he finishes the season much better than the 39th best starting pitcher in dollar value. Speaking of innings limit, Tillman will probably be on the same type of limit, but it is puzzling to see his drop from 350 to 394 in two weeks. He had a bout of back spasms a couple of days ago and suffers a larger drop than Jurrjens who had to have a sore shoulder MRI'd. Strange.

Relief Pitching:
3 Biggest Gainers:

Chad Qualls: +18%

Octavio Dotel: +9%

Huston Street: +5%

3 Biggest Droppers:

C.J. Wilson: -6%

Ryan Franklin: -4%

Trevor Hoffman: -3%

Two weeks ago, I covered Chad Qualls, so I am thrilled others are catching on. Just yesterday, Ray Flowers broke down Qualls and was just as optimistic as I was earlier this month. Despite the large gains, Qualls is still coming after setup men such as Fernando Rodney and J.P. Howell in ADP and behind shaky closers such as David Aardsma and Ryan Franklin. Qualls is the best ADP bargain one can find for closers right now, hands down. Franklin has only fallen six spots and is still going ahead of Rafael Soriano, Bobby Jenks, and Mike Gonzalez - all guys I would take over Franklin. The recipe is there for a massive letdown.