Breaking Down: Clayton Kershaw

February 23, 2010 5:51pm CST

If you ask those in Dodger blue, you'll often hear the name of Clayton Kershaw followed by a comparison to all-time Dodger great Sandy Koufax. Both hurlers are left-handed, and there is no disputing the potentially dominating stuff that Kershaw possesses, but aren't we getting a little ahead of ourselves comparing a guy who has thrown 278.2 innings to one of the all-time greats?


2009 REVIEW - Clayton Kershaw
8-8, 2.79 ERA, 185 Ks, 1.23 WHIP in 171 IP

Clayton certainly showed a lot more in Year II than he did in his first go-round (4.26 ERA, 1.50 WHIP in 107.2 IP). Kershaw ended up as the fifth best man in the NL in ERA, and you can forget about it if you wanted to get a hit off the youngster as his .200 BAA was the best mark in baseball. Kershaw also struck out well over a batter per inning, and his 9.74 K/9 mark was the seventh best mark in baseball and third amongst lefties behind Jon Lester (9.96) and Jonathan Sanchez (9.75). That's domination folks.


THE GOOD

As I mentioned above, the guy flat out dominates hitters, as he was the hardest starter in baseball to produce a hit off of with that .200 batting average against mark. He also posted the lowest SLG against at .282. It didn't seem like the matchup or location bothered him much at all either. Just look at these numbers:

.196 at home, .208 against righties.

.199 before All-Star break, .200 thereafter
.173 against lefties, .208 against righties

No one could hit this guy.

An ERA under 3.00 for anyone is terrific, let alone a guy who is this young (Kershaw turns 22 on March 19th). In fact, Kershaw became just the fifth Dodger hurler 21 years or under (Ralph Branca, Don Drysdale, Don Sutton and Fernando Valenzuela) who finished a season in the top-10 in NL ERA. Moreover, his ERA after a shaky April (7.29) was an insanely low 2.22.

I spoke to his strikeout talents above, but here is some historical context. Since 1950, probably before everyone who is reading this article was born, there have been only four 21-and-under left-handed pitchers who were able to post more than a strikeout an inning in a season in which they lasted at least 162 frames. They are: Rick Ankiel (did you forget he came up as a pitcher?), Frank Tanana, "Sudden" Sam McDowell and Mr. Kershaw.

Clearly, if you are looking for a pitcher who dominated hitters in 2009 more thoroughly than anyone else, this guy has to be on the short list.


THE BAD

The first thing that jumps out at you is the fact that his win total just doesn't match his other impressive numbers. Wins are a complete crapshoot, and just because a guy has or doesn't have them really doesn't speak to how well he pitched. Obviously this doesn't help a fantasy owner much since we can't predict these things, but it is extremely odd to see a guy post an ERA under three year fail to win at least 10 games. Since 1950, there have only been three seasons by a lefty in which he posted an ERA under 3.00, with more than a K-per inning and less than 10 victories. Obviously Kershaw had one of those season last year, and the other two belong to Sid Fernandez (1985) and Sam McDowell (1966). So Kershaw was just unlucky last season, right? Well, not so fast.

Kershaw made 31 appearances and threw just 171 innings last season (he did have one relief appearance of two innings late in the year). That breaks down to a mere 5.5 innings an appearance, and it's tough to pick up "W's" when you barely last long enough to even be eligible for one. Why? There are many reasons.

(1) Kershaw was only 21 so the team was very careful with his innings total. This makes a ton of sense of course, but it also limits his value. Kershaw hopes this situation will be different in 2010. "If there was a pitch count last year, I think this year there should be no restrictions, no holds barred, I should pitch as long as I can."

(2) Speaking of pitch counts - this is where Kershaw will need to be an area of focus for Kershaw because he simply wasn't efficient enough last season. Kershaw was the worst starter in baseball in terms of pitchers per plate appearance (4.32). Kershaw was slightly better in pitches per inning - he was only the second worst (his 17.7 mark was just behind the 18.0 mark of another young, hard thrower in Max Scherzer). These totals must come down, and drastically, or there is little objective analysis that could point to another run at a sub 3.00 ERA. Too many pitches and too many free passes equal a lot of early exits from games. In his last nine starts, Kershaw lasted less than five innings four times, and it's pretty hard to win a game when you only pitch five innings in 56 percent of your starts over a two month period.

(3) Why did he struggle with all those pitchers? Simply, he didn't throw near enough strikes. I've already mentioned his dominating BAA and K/9 marks, so you think he would just throw the ball over the plate and let his pitches speak for themselves. Problem with those pitches last year is that, quite frequently, they rarely ended up in the strike zone. After a poor 4.35 BB/9 mark as a rookie, that number rose even higher to 4.79 last season, a completely unacceptable level. There have only been three season since 1950 when a lefty has struck out a batter per inning, with an ERA under 3.00 and more than 4.75 walks per nine innings. Obviously, history isn't on his side unless he drastically reduces the walks.

A question - was he so successful last season because his stuff is that good, or did his scattershot location on his pitches actually make it more difficult to hit him since the batters had no idea where his pitches were going at any time?

Some other concerns with Kershaw follow.

His G/F ratio last season was below the major league average at 0.95. Given his pure stuff this isn't a scary level, but it would certainly be nice to see him induce a few more groundballs. The reason for that is simply that fly balls turn into home runs. Last year he avoided this concern with a stupendous 4.1 percent HR/F mark - the best mark in baseball. There are very few men in baseball that can post a mark under about six or seven percent year after year, and it's asking a whole lot for Kershaw to continue to limit home runs this effectively given that he actually allows more fly balls than groundballs (his HR/F mark was 11.6 percent in his rookie season, fully three times as high). Even some moderate regression here, say to seven or eight percent, would send that ERA climbing.


MOVING FORWARD

So where does all of that information of dominance and history lead us?

Kershaw is so young, so dominating and so exciting to watch that many are likely to pull the trigger a bit too early on the lefty this season. Here is the most recent ADP information from CouchMangers.

Kershaw has an ADP of 94.1 meaning that in standard 12-team leagues he is being drafted near the end of the eighth round. Personally I don't draft starting pitchers early in standard leagues, and the eighth round is usually where I'm looking to take my first starting pitcher. There is no way I would make Kershaw my rotational foundation. Overall he is going off the board as the 21st starting pitcher meaning that everyone is looking at him as an SP2 this season. Could he pitch to that level? Certainly. At the same time he has huge concerns including his huge walk rate, his microscopic home run rate, and an inability to be efficient enough with his pitches to work deep into games. Given those factors that were expounded upon above, does it really make sense to see ADP numbers like this?

94.1 Kershaw
113.9 Ricky Nolasco
144.0 Matt Garza
144.2 Scott Baker
145.0 James Shields

In my mind it certainly doesn't.

Kershaw is immensely talented, and if he suddenly reigns in the free passes and cuts about three pitches off his inning total the sky would be the limit. But barring that, it is exceedingly unlikely that he approaches last years ERA, while the chance of his WHIP improving much is also minor with all those free passes. He should be able to win a few more games, but 2010 should not be one in which you expect him to be the pitcher you thought he was last season based on that 2.79 ERA. Simply put - he isn't there yet.