Two to Tango

July 3, 2009 3:30pm CDT

Each week, we'll profile the projected two-start pitchers for the upcoming fantasy week (July 6-13). Keep in mind that these are subject to change if managers adjust their rotations over the weekend due to injuries or inclement weather.

SAFE BETS

Josh Beckett (BOS): vs OAK (D. Braden); vs KC (B. Chen) - Beckett was able to get back on track and log a respectable start on Wednesday against Baltimore after a rough first three innings. He's been much better at home this year (2.87 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) than on the road (4.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP), and he'll get two outings at Boston against two weak lineups to head into the All-Star break.

CC Sabathia (NYY): at MIN (S. Baker); at LAA (J. Weaver) - Sure, CC faces two capable offenses and also has two tough pitching matchups that could limit his opportunity for a win, but he remains one of the game's true horses and is coming off one of the best starts of his season. Don't overanalyze here; he's an obvious must-start every week, especially when he takes the mound twice.

Josh Johnson (FLA): at SF (B. Zito); at ARZ (D. Davis) - Don't worry about Johnson coming off the rough outing on Wednesday, as he remains one of the best starters in the league this season and faces two of the weaker lineups in the majors; continue to play him every week.

Yovani Gallardo (MLW): vs STL (A. Wainwright); vs LAD (C. Kershaw) - Yovani does face two fine pitchers, but he's clearly reached must-start status this season and has sported a 2.47 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 64 strikeouts in 51 innings through eight starts at home this year.

Matt Cain (SF): vs FLA (S. West); vs SD (W. Silva) - Cain has been one of the most consistently dominant pitchers all year long, faces two far from frightening lineups, is matched up against too very shaky starters, and has been better at home than away this season; there's no decision to make here, as there's nothing not to like.

Jair Jurrjens (ATL): at CHC (R. Wells); at COL (J. Marquis) - While a start at Coors is always cause for a red flag, Jurrjens has actually been fine there by giving up just four runs over 14.2 innings in two career starts. He's also been better on the road (2.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) than at home (2.98 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) this year and is coming off his best start of the season, a seven-inning, one-hitter against the Phillies.

Scott Baker (MIN): vs NYY (C. Sabathia); vs CWS (J. Contreras) - Baker's ERA has dropped each of his past six starts and is finally on the right side of 5.00. He finished June with a 3.20 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 35 strikeouts in 39.1 innings and gets two starts at the Metrodome where he's always been better compared to his road splits, both this year and throughout his career. He has struggled against the White Sox in the past but has also been untouchable in two career starts and the Yankees.

Randy Wells (CHC): vs ATL (J. Jurrjens); vs STL (A. Wainwright) - It's coming to the point where you have to feel comfortable going with Wells on a week-to-week basis. He is matched up against two fine pitchers, neither offense is too scary, and Wells has won each of his past three starts.

Matt Garza (TB): vs TOR (B. Cecil); vs OAK (G. Gonzalez) - Garza continues to deal every fifth day for the Rays, and in turn, you should continue to keep him active in your fantasy team's rotation. He's tentatively scheduled to face two young, inexperienced pitchers in Cecil and Gonzalez that Tampa Bay's loaded lineup could knock out early and provide a two easy wins for Matt.

Javier Vazquez (ATL): at CHC (R. Dempster); at COL (J. Hammel) - Vazquez has struggled over his career at Coors with a 7.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four career starts in the thin Denver air, but make no mistake about it; regardless of the 5-7 record, Javier has been one of the most dominant starters this season with a 3.05 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 10.45 K/9 rate, making him a must-start every week.

NEXT BEST THINGS

Cole Hamels (PHI): vs CIN (J. Cueto); vs PIT (R. Ohlendorf) - I was tempted to place Hamels as a safe bet, because I'm still a staunch believer that he'll turn things around, as the .370 BABIP, over 70 above his career mark, would indicate that he's simply been getting unlucky, though I'll admit you can't feel 100 percent comfortable going with a starter who hasn't made it out of the fifth inning in each of his past two starts. Still, Hamels has been superb in five career start against the Reds (1.25 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 9.25 K/9) and should be able to handle the Pirates.

Adam Wainwright (STL): at MLW (Y. Gallardo); at CHC (R. Wells) - Wainwright is coming off his best start of the season, a complete-game, one-run outing against San Francisco with 12 strikeouts. Still, keep in mind that he's been quite shaky on the road (4.80 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) this season and could be hard-pressed to muster a win against two fine pitchers.

Doug Davis (ARZ): vs SD (K. Correia); vs FLA (J. Johnson) - Davis makes for a pretty solid play this week, with a great matchup against the Padres and a decent one against Florida, and he's allowed just two earned runs over his past three starts, each of which have lasted seven innings.

Erik Bedard (SEA): vs BAL (J. Guthrie); vs TEX (V. Padilla) - He'll come off the DL to start on Tuesday, as his left shoulder is apparently back to good health. He's pretty much a must-start whenever healthy, having logged a 2.47 ERA and and 1.16 WHIP this season with a strikeout per inning, so activate him back into your lineup and just hope he doesn't suffer a setback.

Johnny Cueto (CIN): at PHI (C. Hamels); at NYM (J. Santana) - Cueto was able to get back on track with an excellent start against Arizona on Wednesday after three outings to forget. He remains a fine play, although it could be tough to notch a win against two of the game's premier lefties in Hamels and Santana.

Kevin Millwood (TEX): at LAA (J. Weaver); at SEA (J. Washburn) - Millwood's ERA remains below 3.00 and he's proven to be ultra-reliable for the Rangers by lasting at least six innings in 16 of his 17 starts this season (his other outing, on May 26, was 5.2 innings long). He's gone 2-0 and been mostly effective in three starts this season against his two opponents next week, and while you can't expect that ERA to be in the twos for much longer, that doesn't mean he can't be a fine arm in your rotation.

Brad Bergesen (BAL): at SEA (J. Washburn); vs TOR (B. Cecil) - Do I think Bergesen will continue to be this dominant all year long? No. Should you sell high on him if someone else in your league thinks his excellent start it legit? Absolutely. He simply does not have the stuff or the track record in the minors to suggest he'll continue to be as effective as he's been his last seven starts (over which he's averaged over 7.1 innings per start with a 2.06 ERA and 0.82 WHIP). Still, he's been too good not to ride out until he falls back to earth, so it'd probably be foolish not to start him with two starts coming his way.

Ryan Dempster (CHC): vs ATL (J. Vazquez); vs STL (. ) - It's clear that Dempster will never approach the ace-like numbers he compiled last season, but he remains a fine starter for both the Cubs and your fantasy team every fifth day. He's been pretty effective in three starts against the Cardinals this season and one against the Braves, and there's no reason to think he won't log two fine outings next week.

Aaron Harang (CIN): at PHI (J. Happ); at NYM (M. Pelfrey) - Harang has experienced a bounce-back campaign this season and was great in his start against Philadelphia this season and alright against the Mets. Be aware that he's, not surprisingly, been poor in four career starts at Citizens Bank Park with a 5.14 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.

Jered Weaver (LAA): vs TEX (K. Millwood); vs NYY (C. Sabathia) - I'm certainly a bit wary of Weaver, and how can you not be after he's given up six-plus runs in two of his last three starts, and when he's facing a Texas lineup that just rocked him on Wednesday, not to mention the Yankees in his second go-around. Still, his last start was in Texas, and both of his starts next week come at home where he's shown splits as good as any in the majors (1.83 ERA, 0.86 WHIP).

John Smoltz (BOS): vs OAK (G. Gonzalez); vs KC (G. Meche) - I know Smoltz got roughed up in his first outing back from the DL last week and lasted just four innings in his second, but he still looked good in those four innings against Baltimore. Call me a fool, but I still trust this 42-year-old to be an effective starter this season going forward and he should be able to at least make it through five innings as his arm gets more comfortable, which could be enough for two wins next week against Oakland and Kansas City.

J.A. Happ (PHI): vs CIN (A. Harang); vs PIT (V. Vasquez) - Happ has never faced either the Reds or Pirates in his mostly successful young career. He's gotten back on track after a shaky mid-June and should be fine heading into the All-Star break.

AT YOUR OWN RISK

Jarrod Washburn (SEA): vs BAL (B. Bergesen); vs TEX (K. Millwood) - Washburn has been darn effective this season, having lasted at least six innings in his past seven starts, and looks to be undergoing a career resurgence. Still, he has two tough matchups against Bergesen and Millwood that could make a win tough to come by, he's not stellar in any category, and I foresee a splash back to the free agency pool before long; if you opt to go with him this week, just hope it doesn't come before the All-Star break.

Jason Hammel (COL): vs WAS (J. Zimmermann); vs ATL (J. Vazquez) - Hammel has been quite successful since the start of June and does face two manageable lineups, but they also come against two tough starters. Regardless, Hammel has been too awful at home (7.12 ERA, 1.85 WHIP) in six starts at Coors this season to consider him a play with both starts coming at home.

Jose Contreras (CWS): vs CLE (J. Sowers); at MIN (S. Baker) - Jose has been a pleasant surprise since winning a spot back in Chicago's rotation and was excellent in his last start against Cleveland, so you have to like his chances for another quality outing against the Indians to open the week. Still, he was a bit shaky in his prior two outings, the eight strikeouts three of his past four starts are most certainly a mirage for this pitch-to-contact hurler, and he's struggled against Minnesota throughout 12 appearances (11 starts) in his career with a 4.35 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and .287 BAA.

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS): at COL (J. Hammel); at HOU (B. Moehler) - I've loved Zimmermann from the start, as a lot have people have began to as well, but that doesn't mean I think he makes a good play this week. He's been quite shaky on the road (5.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) this season, and you always have to worry about a young pitcher's first career start at Coors.

Gil Meche (KC): at DET (A. Galarraga); at BOS (J. Smoltz) - Meche was excellent in his first three starts in June but roughed up in his final two of the month, and while his last showing to open July was technically a quality start, that doesn't mean he didn't kill your WHIP with six hits and five walks in six innings. He'll face to dangerous lineups on the road in Detroit and Boston, so you may want to think twice about playing him this week.

Jason Marquis (COL): vs WAS (C. Stammen); vs ATL (J. Jurrjens) - Marquis has been pretty effective this season and faces two manageable lineups, though he's been far from stellar at home (4.34 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) and remains a risk to get shelled; while he's coming off a complete-game shutout against the Dodgers, that came after a seven-run outing against the Angels in 3.1 innings.

Armando Galarraga (DET): vs KC (G. Meche); vs CLE (J. Sowers) - He's one his past two starts and two hits and one run in his last start look great, though not quite as good when you consider the six walks. He had lasted a total of six innings combined in two starts before the recent two-game winning streak, and keep in mind that Detroit could opt to forego his second start in place of Justin Verlander given their off day on Thursday.

Andy Pettitte (NYY): vs TOR (R. Romero); at LAA (J. Saunders) - You can't really consider Pettitte much of an option this week. He's been too mediocre this season with a 1.50 WHIP, is pitted against one of the hottest pitcher's in the game right now in Toronto's Ricky Romero for his first start, and gets an Angels offense that teed off against him back in May.

Sean West (FLA): at SF (M. Cain); at ARZ (J. Garland) - West got off to a nice start upon joining Florida's starting rotation this season and faces too weak offenses next weak, though he will have an especially tough time garnering a win against Cain. He's also fallen back down to earth of late, surrendering five runs and failing to make it through the fifth inning in two of his last three starts, making him a definite risk going forward.

Jon Garland (ARZ): vs SD (W. Silva); vs FLA (S. West) - Garland has lasted at least six innings in his past six starts, but that's not to say he's been all that effective, mixing stellar outings with some real rough ones. He still has more walks (37) than strikeouts (35) this season, and while he is tough to score on when he's got his best stuff, you're playing with fire anytime you play him in your lineup.

Kevin Correia (SD): at ARZ (D. Davis); at SF (B. Zito) - It looks like the wheels may be falling off of one of the best starters for most of June, as Correia gave up six runs in five innings in his first start in July. Hopefully you enjoyed the Correia ride while it lasted, because he should be no better than average the rest of the season.

Mike Pelfrey (NYM): vs LAD (C. Kershaw); vs CIN (A. Harang) - Pelfrey's 4.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP are pretty shaky, though he has been better at home, where each number dips to 3.91 and 1.31, respectively. Still, neither of those totals are good enough for me to really consider Pelfrey too safe of an option.

Virgil Vasquez (PIT): at HOU (B. Moehler); at PHI (J. Happ) - Vasquez has been pretty good in his first two starts this season and has a decent matchup at Houston, but he still has a whole lot more to prove before he can be trusted, and you can't feel the least bit comfortable with him this week given that his second start comes in the pitcher's nightmare known as Citizens Bank Park.

Barry Zito (SF): vs FLA (J. Johnson); vs SD (K. Correia) - Zito is listed here on name recognition alone, as there's really no way you can consider him in any format at this point given how shaky he's been since donning a Giants uniform.

Brian Moehler (HOU) : vs PIT (V. Vasquez); vs WAS (J. Zimmermann) - Moehler escapes from his usual placement as an "other" based on his recent effectiveness and two stellar matchups this week; he faces two weak offenses at home. Those in dire need of someone to fill their final pitching spot could certainly do worse, but just remember, this is Brian Moehler we're talking about.

PICK OF THE WEEK

Ricky Romero (TOR): at NYY (A. Pettitte); at BAL (R. Hill) - Hey Ricky, you're so fine! I'm sorry, I just had to say it, as he's been too good not to show some love. Throw out his two starts in May when he was still rusty after coming off the DL with a strained oblique; Romero went 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in three starts in April before the DL stint and is now 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 8.50 K/9 rate in six starts since the rough May. Those numbers are off the chart, and this former stud prospect is clearly coming into his own, and must be both owned and started in all leagues at this point. He faces two shaky lefties in Pettitte and Hill, and with two more fine outings, could be one of the most talked-about fantasy commodities heading into the All-Star break.

HEDGE YOUR BETS

Clayton Kershaw (LAD): at NYM (M. Pelfrey); at MLW (Y. Gallardo) - Kershaw has been pretty effective of late and remains a fine strikeout artist, though his control remains quite questionable, and he continues to rack up high pitch-counts that limit him from lasting too long into games; he's walked at least three batters in 11 of his past 12 starts, over which he's made it through the sixth inning just four times. He's also been incredibly shaky on the road (5.54 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) this season and will also find it incredibly tough to muster a win against Gallardo.

OTHERS

Gio Gonzalez (OAK) : at BOS (J. Smoltz) ; at TB (M. Garza)
Craig Stammen (WAS) : at COL (J. Marquis) ; at HOU (M. Hampton)
Walter Silva (SD) : at ARZ (J. Garland) ; at SF (M. Cain)
Brett Cecil (TOR) : at TB (M. Garza) ; at BAL (B. Bergesen)
Jeremy Sowers (CLE) : at CWS (J. Contreras) ; at DET (A. Galarraga)
Bruce Chen (KC) : at DET (J. Verlander) ; at BOS (J. Beckett)
Vicente Padilla (TEX) : at LAA (J. Lackey) ; at SEA (E. Bedard)

TWO-START NOTES

- Baltimore could choose to skip Jason Berken's start on Friday coming off an off day, which would give Jeremy Guthrie a second start on the week. He'd make for a decent play against Seattle and Toronto.

- The schedule of Cleveland's rotation could be switched up if Aaron Laffey (oblique) is activated from the DL and given a start sometime during the week.

- Detroit could choose to skip Rick Porcello or Armando Galarraga's starts at the end of the week to give Justin Verlander an extra turn before the All-Star break, though he's a must-start regardless.

- Houston is going with a six-man rotation for the time being, meaning Brian Moehler is currently the only pitcher slated for two starts despite no off days next week.

- The Angels could opt to skip Sean O'Sullivan on Friday which would bump John Lackey into two-start territory, though he's a must-start regardless given how great he's been of late.

- With an off day last Thursday and the upcoming Thursday as well, Oakland could choose to bump Gio Gonzalez from one of his starts, which would give Dallas Braden an extra turn. He'd have two rough matchups against the Red Sox and Rays, although he's been effective enough to give strong consideration regardless.

- The Cardinals have no off days next week and a double-header on Sunday. Assuming they don't pitch Todd Wellemeyer on short rest, they'll have to call up someone from the minors or start someone from the bullpen in their second game against the Cubs.