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Cory Elfrink

Offseason Overview: Portland Trail Blazers

July 8, 2009 10:24am CDT

The Trail Blazers emerged with home court advantage in the first round on the final day of the regular season when they notched their 54th win. GM Kevin Pritchard has done a masterful job of collecting a ton of young, cheap talent. Team captain and two-time all-star Brandon Roy took big strides, and the team managed to get Greg Oden on the floor. With continued development and maturation of their players, the team could be a top four seed once again in the West.

Cap situation: $48.7 million committed to 11 players. Team is still paying $9 million to Darius Miles who was previously bought out. League salary cap estimated at $58 million for 2009-2010 season.

Retuning players: Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden, Steve Blake, Rudy Fernandez, Joel Przybilla, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, Nicolas Batum, and Jerryd Bayless.

Rookies: Victor Claver, Jeff Pendergraph, Dante Cunningham, and Patrick Mills. Claver will likely play next season overseas.

Key free agents: Channing Frye

Five Burning Questions

1) Is there a free agent left who can improve this team?
With Roy, Aldridge, and Oden, the Trail Blazers are comfortable with their starters at three positions. However, some feel they should upgrade at point guard and small forward. The team thought they had locked up free-agent Hedo Turkoglu, but the small forward spurned them the very next day when he agreed in principle with the Toronto Raptors. Other free agents that they have been linked to but are already off the market include Mike Bibby and Trevor Ariza. While they have also been rumored to have interest in Andre Miller, Lamar Odom, and David Lee, I don't think these players make them better than their 54-28 record from a season ago. Lee and Odom play the same position as Aldridge. Miller is 33, and his defense is rapidly fading. He has never been out of the first round of the playoffs and has hit 15 or less three-pointers in his last six seasons. I don't see how he is a better fit for this team than Steve Blake. One wildcard would be Nate Robinson, who put up incredible numbers when filling in at point guard for the Knicks last season and is from Seattle. The Knicks are unlikely to match an offer for the restricted free agent, so he is one player to keep an eye on. The team will have former sixth overall selection Martell Webster back in the fold this season, so that should give them more depth at small forward, and last year's starter, Nicolas Batum, should take a step forward in his second year. If they do spend money, it should be on players that provide depth and experience like Joe Smith, Anthony Carter, Theo Ratliff, Drew Gooden, or Chris Wilcox.

2) If no starters are signed this offseason, is it a failure?

The Blazers are built for a bright future.
Not at all. The Trail Blazers will have a lot of cap space for next summer's celebrity free-agent class and one of the best collections of young talent in the league. The team has lost virtually nobody off of a team that won 54 games last season, and the young squad should benefit from a year of playing together. In fact, if I were in Portland, I would prefer to watch this collection of players for another season and then push for an elite free-agent from next summer's class.

3) Will Oden make big progress next season?
After missing his initial rookie season due to microfracture knee surgery, the former first overall selection made only 39 starts and averaged just 21.5 minutes in 61 appearances last season. His offensive game proved to be very limited, but he learned not to force the issue and finished the year shooting an impressive 56.4 percent from the field. Per 36 minutes, his numbers extrapolated out to 14.8 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game. But that's the problem. Can his body handle starter's minutes over the course of the 82-game schedule? Not only did Oden battle left knee and right ankle injuries, but foul trouble was a major problem throughout the season. Oden averaged 3.9 fouls per game despite his limited minutes. Going forward, I think we'll see more consistent rebounding, improved shot blocking, and a slightly more versatile offensive games - but not a leap in progress. He will also learn how to better use his fouls and that should lead to more minutes. Like Yao Ming, injuries are going to haunt Oden nearly every season. I think he could provide double-double production with 2.5 blocks per game for about 60 games per season, but he'll never live up to his No. 1 billing.

4) How do they squeeze in so many wing players?
Roy is their best player, and it's a great thing that he's such a good ball-handler and distributor. From there, coach Nate McMillan has to figure out how to spread out minutes amongst Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw, Nicolas Batum, and Jerryd Bayless. The depth and skill level among those players makes me think we will see a lot of Roy at point guard when Blake gets a breather. They may try to incorporate Bayless at point guard once again during summer league, but McMillan has indicated that he would rather have him play off-guard. It's not known what to expect from Webster, who missed all of last season with a broken foot. He started 70 games the previous season as a 21-year-old and averaged 10.7 points per game. The 6-foot-9 swing man has yet to live up to his lofty selection in the 2005 draft, but he is still just 22. Outlaw continues to be an impressive scorer, but his decision-making is not very strong. I think the defensive specialist Batum, who started 76 games last season), and Bayless figure to be the odd men out of the rotation. Both players are only 20 years old and limited minutes shouldn't slow their development too much. Fernandez is the best of the bunch, but…..

5) What's going on with Fernandez?
Fernandez was reportedly, and understandably, upset when the reports came out that the Trail Blazers were actively trying to acquire Turkoglu. Fernandez, who played more than 25 minutes per game as a rookie, stands to make $1.16 million this season and $1.2 million next year. He claims that he has been offered up to $5 million to play overseas. Now his NBA team is looking for a similar player to eat into his minutes? It's easy to understand the frustration. The Blazers probably dodged a bullet by losing out on Hedo, and hopefully they will make nice with Fernandez. Rudy would be the sixth-man on most teams and starting for some, but the Trail Blazers are so deep on the wings that his role fluctuated last season. It doesn't help that their best player (Roy) plays the same position. It probably would make some sense to shop Fernandez, but given his cheap contract, it will be hard to get a player of his caliber in return.

Ideal Situation:Given their recent success, depth, youth and cap-friendly salaries, I think the team should stick with what they got. The only big move I could really get behind is acquiring a very good point guard in his 20s in return for Blake and a wing player or two (likely Fernandez, but preferably Outlaw). However, if that doesn't happen, they will still be a playoff team. It would probably be a good idea to pluck a lesser free agent to come in and back up Aldridge.

Resulting Depth Chart
PG: Steve Blake/Jerryd Bayless/Patrick Mills
SG: Brandon Roy/Rudy Fernandez
SF: Martell Webster/Travis Outlaw/Nicolas Batum
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge/Joe Smith/Jeff Pendergraph
C: Greg Oden/Joel Przybilla

Strengths: Returns everyone from a 54-win team, youth, potential, great contracts, depth, shooting, specialists
Weaknesses: Not enough playing time?,Consistency,durability

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