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Ted Carlson

Offseason Overview: Phoenix Suns

July 4, 2009 2:01pm CDT

After winning at an average of 58 games during the Mike D'Antoni era, the Suns slipped to 46-36 last season and missed the playoffs. Terry Porter lasted only 51 games as the head coach, and the players responded better to Alvin Gentry, who won 12 of the final 17 games. Steve Kerr's rebuilding project began in February of 2008, when he dealt Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O'Neal. It continued last December, when the Suns made a five-player trade with the Bobcats to land Jason Richardson. This summer, Kerr sent the Big Diesel to Cleveland and tried to pull off a huge swap with the Warriors on draft day. Where will it end?

Cap situation: $62.1 million committed to 11 players. League salary cap estimated at $58 million for 2009-2010 season. These figures don't include the rookie salaries or potential buyouts.

Returning players: Amare Stoudemire, Jason Richardson, Steve Nash, Leandro Barbosa, Goran Dragic, Robin Lopez, Jared Dudley, Alando Tucker, Louis Amundson

New faces/rookies: Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, Earl Clark, Taylor Griffin, Emir Preldzic

Traded away: Shaquille O'Neal

Key free agents: Grant Hill, Matt Barnes, Stromile Swift

Five Burning Questions
1) Will Amare end up with the Warriors?
On draft night, the Suns and Warriors reportedly had a deal in place to send Stoudemire to Oakland in exchange for a combination of the No. 7 pick, center Andris Biedrins, and another player, likely Brandan Wright and/or Marco Belinelli and/or Kelenna Azubuike. The Warriors pulled out when Stephen Curry became the No. 7 pick and part of the price. The Suns won't do it without Curry. Reports also suggest that Amare has no interest in playing center for the Warriors and wouldn't sign a long-term deal with the team. He has a $17.7 million player option for the 2010-11 season, and everyone expects Stoudemire to nix that option and seek a max deal. Why trade for the big man if you can't keep him beyond next summer? Stoudemire to the Warriors seems like a dead deal.

2) Will Amare remain in Phoenix?
The Suns have made it obvious that Stoudemire is available, and it seems fairly clear that Kerr doesn't want to build his team and offense around this 26-year-old big man. The big question now is: Who else wants him? We should rephrase that question. Most teams probably want Amare, but who will give up a rebuilding package to land him? The Wizards and Hawks have been mentioned, among others, but it's tough to decipher fan chatter and speculation from true intent. The Suns may hold on to Stoudemire to open the 2009-10 season, but the trade rumors could continue to swirl until the February 2010 deadline.

3) Can Nash possibly be happy?

Will the Suns keep this core in place?
Kerr met with the two-time MVP in mid-June to talk contract and about the GM's plans for the team. It would have been nice to be a fly on the wall. Nash is due $13.1 million in 2009-10 (provided they pick up his option, which they will), and he will then be a free agent. Kerr says he wants to sign the 35-year-old Nash to a contract extension, which would be for two seasons. We don't imagine that Nash would do that unless he buys into Kerr's vision and think the Suns can win a title. Some rumors suggest Nash wanted the team to get rid of Shaq, but that trade makes more sense as a salary dump with an eye to the future. Anyway, we don't have a good answer here. The Suns played better down the stretch under Gentry, but we can't imagine that Nash sees this squad a real threat to the Lakers, Spurs, Cavaliers, and other true contenders. It wouldn't be too surprising if the point guard's name popped up in trade rumors this summer and into next season.

4) Will Hill and Barnes return?
Hill played all 82 games last season and picked up his play over the second half. He averaged 13.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 1.2 steals and shot 52.2 percent after the All-Star break. The Suns have made him their top priority in free agency, even though he turns 37 this October and carries that well-known injury history. Signs point to his return, but we have to believe Hill will think twice after the Amare rumors. Hill still makes his home in Orlando, and the Magic are much more of a contender right now. Barnes averaged career-highs of 10.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.8 assists last season. A lot of teams would probably like to add him to the bench. He won't be a priority for the Suns unless they fail to bring back Hill.

5) What's the master plan here?
Uh, good question. The Suns cleared out Shaq's massive contract and will work on buyouts with Wallace and Pavlovic. Those moves saved them money. Will they use that space to sign Stoudemire to a long-term deal? Keep Nash? They seem to be skirting the line between staying competitive and blowing up the roster. Kerr's meeting with Nash and Hill suggests he isn't interested in a complete rebuilding project. As far as we can tell, Kerr may attempt to keep Nash and Hill, deal Amare for a multi-player package, and keep enough flexibility to play in the 2010 free agent pool. To be honest, though, the coming weeks and months will bring more clarity to this mess.

Ideal Situation: Rumors persist about the Suns sending Wallace's fat contract to the Hornets for Tyson Chandler, who could play center and make up for Stoudemire's defensive deficiencies. The Hornets could throw in guard Devin Brown to make the numbers work, it would help. The Suns then re-sign Hill for cheap, as they don't really have the money to go after a younger or better small forward. That may be "ideal" for the season ahead, as it would keep the Suns competitive. However, the franchise would still have huge lingering questions (Amare, Nash) about their summer of 2010 outlook. They could just be delaying the inevitable rebuilding phase.

Resulting Depth Chart
PG: Steve Nash / Goran Dragic
SG: Jason Richardson / Leandro Barbosa / Devin Brown
SF: Grant Hill / Jared Dudley / Alando Tucker
PF: Amare Stoudemire / Louis Amundson / Earl Clark
C: Tyson Chandler / Robin Lopez

Strengths: Still competitive in 2009-10, better defense, up-tempo offense
Weaknesses: Not a contender, Amare contract, Nash contract, pick-and-roll defense

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