Comebacks and Disappointments – Northwest Division

July 9, 2009 1:32pm CDT

It's already time to start looking ahead to the next fantasy hockey season despite the fact the '08-'09 regular season feels like it just ended. But as we say around Fanball: "It's never too early to start preparing for next year." We look ahead to the '09-'10 season and predict who we think will spring back from a poor '08-'09 and who we think will fall short of expectations.

Part 1 - Atlantic Division
Part 2 - Northeast Division
Part 3 - Southeast Division
Part 4 - Central Division


Vancouver Canucks
Comeback Kid
Left winger Taylor Pyatt produced 10 goals and nine assists in 69 games last season. His goal total dropped for the second consecutive year since his career-best 23 he tallied in 2006-07. To date, Pyatt has yet to hold much fantasy in his career as he has not topped 37 points in a season, but he has proven he can light the lamp at a decent clip as evidenced by his '06-'07 campaign. He skated in 10 fewer games and took 68 fewer shots from 2007-08 to 2008-09 which can partially explain his drop in production. If Pyatt is able to skate in more games next season, it is likely he will approach or surpass the 20 goal mark for the second time in his career. Though he is not an elite or notable fantasy star, he could provide a sneaky option for a boost in goals in 2009-10.

Likely to Disappoint
Defenseman Willie Mitchell broke into fantasy relevance for the first time in his career in 2008-09 scoring 23 points and finishing with an outstanding +29 which was tied for 10th in all of the NHL. Prior to last season, Mitchell had not scored over 14 points or finished better than +15 in nine seasons as he tied his career-high with three goals and set a new best with 20 assists. We won't sugarcoat it. The guy did not score a single power-play point last year, has never scored more than three times in a season, and failed to collect more than 13 assists in a season throughout his career prior to last year. While his plus/minus was likely beneficial to fantasy teams and his 23 points were a nice bonus, Mitchell will likely return to being a borderline fantasy option as he has been his whole career.


Calgary Flames
Comeback Kid
Olli Jokinen will be looked at to head the Flames' attack alongside Jarome Iginla in 2009-10 following the departure of Calgary's leading goal scorer from 2008-09 Michael Cammalleri (he signed with the Canadiens). Jokinen joined Calgary from Phoenix deep into the 2008-09 season, but his impact on the team's season carried them through the last few games of the year. He skated in just 19 games for the Flames, but in that time managed to rack up eight goals and seven assists. Jokinen's goal totals have declined the past couple years (39, 34 and 29), but he proved he can still score at a high clip upon arriving in Calgary. Jokinen's assist totals also have fallen the past few years (52, 37 and 28) which could be attributed to his surroundings, specifically playing on a rather weak Phoenix team last season. His move to Calgary should rejuvenate his numbers as we saw at the end of last season due to a much better supporting cast.

Likely to Disappoint
Daymond Langkow set career-highs in goals (33) and points (77) in 2006-07, but his numbers across the board have slipped considerably the two following seasons. The 32-year-old finished with 30 goals and 65 points in 2007-08 and then slid to 21 goals and 49 points last season. His plus/minus also was a member of this alarming trend, dropping 15 points (+16 to +1) from 2007-08 to '08-'09. He has scored 20 or more goals the past seven seasons, and has finished with a positive plus/minus the past nine seasons, so it is hard to label the consistent Langkow as a possible disappointment. However, his career trends are currently headed in a downward spiral and might be a cause for concern for fantasy owners. He still holds a wealth of fantasy value as a solid 20+ goal scorer, but he looks unlikely to repeat his 2006-07 seasons in 2009-10.


Minnesota Wild
Comeback Kid
Left winger Andrew Brunette skated through several months of the 2008-09 season with a torn ACL but still managed to net 22 goals and 28 assists through 80 games. His goal total improved from 2007-08 (19 to 22) but his overall total points slid from 59 to 50, which is not much of a drop-off when considering he spent mid-January through the end of the season in April playing on one knee. Brunette's offensive production is hinged not only to his own health but also to the health of teammate Martin Havlat who is looked at to spearhead the Wild attack and jumpstart the other lines. Assuming Brunette fully recovers from surgery to repair his torn ACL this summer, expect to see him improve on his assists total from 2008-09 (28) as well as his total points (50). He appears set to be ready in time for the Wild's training camp.

Likely to Disappoint

The phrase "injury-prone" and Martin Havlat have gone hand in hand for the majority of the right winger's career. Havlat played in his first full season of his career in 2008-09 skating in 81 contests. He failed to appear in more than 56 games in each of the three seasons prior to '08-'09, suffering injuries to just about every body part causing him to miss huge chunks of time. When Havlat isn't recovering from injury he is lethal on the ice, scoring 20 or more goals five times in his eight year career, including his career-best of 29 goals last season. Havlat's skill is not in question, but his durability is. His skill-set is worthy of a high draft pick in fantasy leagues, but the odds are his next injury is likely right around the corner based off how things have gone in his career thus far. Owner's that select Havlat will be rewarded when he is on the ice, but the idea that he skates in a full season in back-to-back years is pretty unlikely.


Edmonton Oilers
Comeback Kid
Andrew Cogliano finished with just 38 points in 2008-09 in his second season in the NHL, but despite the drop-off from his 45 point rookie campaign, Cogliano gave fantasy owners incentive to pay attention to him in 2009-10. Despite scoring 18 goals in each of his first two seasons, he still has yet to find the form he had in his last year playing at the University of Michigan in 2006-07 when he lit the lamp 24 times while assisting 26 times in just 38 contests. Odds are Cogliano is still adjusting to the speed of the game in the NHL, and though he hit a hiccup in 2008-09 dropping off from his rookie season in points, slipping in plus/minus from +1 to (-6) and falling off in shooting percentage (18.4% to 15.5%), he should be set to rebound and improve in 2009-10 as he adjusts to the level of the game and creates a chemistry with his Edmonton teammates.

Likely to Disappoint
In his first season in Edmonton, Lubomir Visnovsky skated in just 50 games, and failed to reproduce his impressive scoring lines he had in LA. However, his slip in production began well before his move to Edmonton, with the 2008-09 season marking his third consecutive drop in total points since his career-high of 67 in 2005-06. This drop (67, 58, 41 and 31) is an alarming trend as is the fact he has not scored in double digits in the past two seasons since scoring 18 in 2006-07. To be fair, Visnovsky missed a hunk of 2008-09 after needing surgery to repair his labrum explaining the production loss, and it is uncertain how this surgery might effect next season as he continues to recover from it. The 32-year-old is still a solid producing defender, but his trends are ones that should bump him down on your draft rankings.


Colorado Avalanche
Comeback Kid
Paul Stastny and Marek Svatos both look to rebound from an unimpressive 2008-09 season. Stastny skated in just 45 games because of injury and tallied just 11 goals and 36 total points, well below his marks of 24 goals and 71 total points in 2007-08, and his shooting percentage tumbled from .174% to .093%. He missed many games due to a variety of injuries last season, but when healthy he is a 20+ goal scorer and can rack up the assists in bunches. Assuming he is healthy this year look for his numbers to more closely reflect his 2007-08 totals rather than his 2008-09 totals. Svatos also had a down year last season recording 14 goals, a steep drop from the 26 he scored in 2007-08. For what it is worth, Svatos is starting to form a trend similar to that of Vaclav Prospal that we highlighted in Part III of this series which you can access in the links above. He seems to follow up a high scoring year with a drop off in production, just to rebound the next year. Dating back to 2005-06, his goal totals have been 32, 15 ,26, and 14. His trend is not nearly as noticeable or long as Prospal's, but it is a fun one to point out. Svatos likely will improve his goal numbers, but don't expect him to be a large contributor in means of points as he has failed to produce more than 37 points the past three consecutive seasons.

Likely to Disappoint
In case you haven't realized it yet, Milan Hejduk is far from the 50-goal scorer he was in 2002-03 and his recent trends should raise red flags with owners. Since his career-best 50 goals and 98 points in 2002-03, Hejduk has not even approached that mark since, scoring no more than 35 goals and recording 75 points or less each season. The red flag comes with his diminishing goal totals the past two consecutive seasons (35 in '06-'07 to 29 then 27 last season) and the fact he has scored over 59 points just once in the past four seasons (58, 70, 54 and 59). Last season also marked he finished with his first negative plus/minus with a (-19), continuing a five-year downward spiral of his plus/minus since his career-best +52 in 2002-03. The departure of the team's leading total points producer Ryan Smyth and the recent retirement of Joe Sakic are other knocks against the hope that Hejduk will somehow return to his elite goal scoring ways. Hejduk still figures to be a 20+ goal scorer, but unless the cast around him improves, he might struggle to do any better so value him accordingly.