Comebacks and Disappointments – Central Division

July 3, 2009 10:29am CDT

It's already time to start looking ahead to the next fantasy hockey season despite the fact the '08-'09 regular season feels like it just ended. But as we say around Fanball: "It's never too early to start preparing for next year." We look ahead to the '09-'10 season and predict who we think will spring back from a poor '08-'09 and who we think will fall short of expectations.

Part 1 - Atlantic Division
Part 2 - Northeast Division
Part 3 - Southeast Division


Detroit Red Wings
Comeback Kid
Despite finishing with a 26-9-8 record, Chris Osgood struggled tremendously in the regular season in 2008-09 before putting together an outstanding playoff run for the Red Wings. He ended the year with a 3.09 GAA, which not only was a full point higher than his mark of 2.09 in 2007-08 but the highest his GAA has ever been in his 15 seasons in the NHL. Still, his GAA has only ascended above 3.00 twice in his career and likely will drop in 2009-10, though the question is how much? Osgood blamed his regular season woes on a lack of focus and preparation which might explain why his GAA and save percentage were at career worst levels. Though Osgood proved in the playoffs that he can be an elite netminder by posting a 15-8 record with a 2.01 GAA and a .926 save percentage, we likely will see his numbers more closely resemble his career averages of 2.47 GAA and a .906 save percentage in the coming season.

Likely to Disappoint
Tomas Holmstrom saw his production slide for the third consecutive year in the points category in 2008-09 as he finished with just 37 points in 53 games. The right winger especially struggled near the end of the season failing to light the lamp once in the last 19 games. His less than ideal work continued in the playoffs as he tallied just seven points in 23 games which earned him playing time on the fourth line. Holmstrom's regular season goal total slid for the second straight year down from 29 in 2006-07, to 20 in 2007-08 and finally 14 in 2008-09. He took just 75 shots in 2008-09, an average of roughly 1.4 shots per game, which is a far cry from the 176 shots he took in 77 games in 2006-07 at a rate of 2.3 shots per game, a rate he matched in 2007-08 with his 2.3 shots on goal mark. Holmstrom revealed he had been playing on an injured knee for the later part of the year (in addition to his on going groin issues).. Whether injury was the cause for his lackluster season is uncertain, but Holmstrom does not look to be a reliable fantasy option heading into 2009-10.


Chicago Blackhawks
Comeback Kid
Patrick Sharp saw his goal, assist, point, plus/minus and shot totals all decline in 2008-09 from 2007-08 due to injury woes that forced him to miss 21 games. The left winger finished with 26 goals in 61 contests, 10 fewer than in 2007-08 when he tallied 36 in 80 contests. His point total also dropped from 62 in '07-'08 to 44 in '08-'09 while his plus/minus fell off substantially from +23 to +6. Sharp proved that his drop in production was due to him missing time and not a drop off in skills by rattling in seven goals and four assists in 17 games after returning from a knee injury. When he did play his injuries did not slow him down as he scored at a solid clip (0.42 goals per game) that was not too far below the rate he scored in 2007-08 (0.45 goals per game) when he was healthy and lit the lamp 36 times. If healthy, he should be able to once again push the 30-goal mark.

Likely to Disappoint
Defenseman Duncan Keith set career-highs in points (44), plus/minus (+33), power-play points (11) and shots (173) in 2008-09. His goal total dropped to eight after lighting the lamp 12 times in 2007-08 and his shooting percentage fell from .081% to .046%, but every other statistical category saw an improvement last season. As his production has increased, his PIMs have decreased from 79 in his rookie campaign in 2005-06 to 60 in 2008-09. His shooting percentage dropping off is an area of concern and it gives little reason to believe that Keith will be able to improve on his goal total though Keith found the majority of his success through his puck distribution which earned him 36 assists. Keith may have reached his zenith as an offensive force, and that will likely be the reason that he might be overvalued in the coming season. Plus, guys don't often have three seasons in a row with a plus/minus mark over +30 (he is a +63 the past two years).


St. Louis Blues
Comeback Kid
When you tear your ACL and MCL while getting out of a golf-cart and miss an entire season, there is nowhere left to go but up. Defenseman Erik Johnson suffered this freak accident and did not play a single game for the Blues in 2008-09 after showing a promising start to his NHL career with 33 points in 69 games in 2007-08. The first overall pick in the 2006 draft has yet to really get his career rolling and looks to pick up where he left off at the end of 2007-08. The 21-year-old Johnson is sure to log a ton of ice-time if healthy, and likely will resume his role on the power-play unit. Johnson brings a wealth of offensive potential from the defense as he lit the lamp five times in 2007-8, four of which came on the power-play. He added 28 assists, 14 of which came with a man-advantage. Johnson is a legitimate scoring threat from the blue line so be sure to not let him slip your mind on draft day due to his absence in 2008-09.

Likely to Disappoint
Paul Kariya only skated in 11 games in 2008-09, so from a pure numbers perspective he will obviously improve in 2009-10 assuming he stays healthy. However, it is the expectations and the alarming trends in Kariya's career of late that make him a solid candidate to disappoint in St. Louis next season. Prior to his short season in 2008-09, his goal totals have declined from 31 in 2005-06, to 24 in 2006-07 and to 16 in 2007-08. In fact, he has scored 25 goals or more just once in the past six seasons Kariya has been durable on the ice, and has appeared in 82 games in five of the past seven seasons which might be starting to take a toll on his production due to all the bumps and bruises he has suffered by appearing in all those games. The 34-year-old is still viewed by many as an elite winger, but his role on the ice is shifting as he ages. Kariya is surrounded by a team packed with young talent, and he is supposed to guide them with his leadership and experience which is of huge value to the Blues, but is of little value for the fantasy owner. He is still generally valued much too high due to the big name he carries and the memories of old when he scored 50-goals way back in 1995-96.


Columbus Blue Jackets
Comeback Kid
Fredrik Modin skated in 50 games in 2008-09 finishing with nine goals and 25 points which made the left winger rather irrelevant in the fantasy world. Injuries have been a staple of Modin's past two seasons as he skated in just 23 games in 2007-08. However, Modin has proved that when healthy he is a legitimate scoring threat as he scored 22 or more goals in each of the three seasons prior to his injury plagued years in '07-'08 and '08-'09. Also prior to his last two seasons, he strung together four consecutive seasons of 40 points or more. Modin may not lead his team in goals, but he can be a boost in the category when healthy as he has scored in the double-digits in nine of his 12 NHL seasons.

Likely to Disappoint
One of the best stories of the 2008-09 season was the outstanding performance of netminder Steve Mason. Mason burst on the scene in his rookie year going 33-20-7 with a 2.29 GAA and a .916 save percentage. He led the league in shutouts with 10 and his impressive GAA finished second behind only Tim Thomas of the Bruins. Mason's rookie season was so good that it seems very unlikely he will be able to easily replicate it, let alone best it in his sophomore season. Sophomore slump theories aside, Mason's performance after the All-Star game and in the playoffs are reasons to believe he may disappoint in 2009-10. In the playoffs Mason crumbled under the pressure of the big stage going 0-4 with a 4.26 GAA and a .878 save percentage against Detroit. After the All-Star game, his GAA grew from 2.05 to 2.53, and his save percentage dropped from .926 to .904. His numbers were still solid, but Mason showed he is in fact human. He is still a strong choice in net for fantasy owners, but be wary that he will be hard pressed to top or match his performance in 2008-09.


Nashville Predators
Comeback Kid
Steve Sullivan signed a 2-year deal to remain with he Predators and is hopefully of return to the realm of being an offensive force with continued health. Sullivan missed a hunk of the season and only skated in 41 games due to continued back woes, but he still produced at a steady clip when he was on the ice as he scored 11 times and produced 32 points, which included a 12 points in his last nine games of the year. He is no stranger to lighting the lamp as he has scored 20 or more goals seven times in his career, including twice in the past three seasons he has skated. Sullivan missed the entire 2007-08 season with his back injury, but upon returning he has continued his scoring ways. Prior to his shortened 2008-09 and his missed 2007-08, Sullivan put together a 31 goal season in 2005-06 and a 22 goal season in 2006-07. Unfortunately, this past season ended as he was getting into a scoring groove, but expect him to continue to light the lamp and chip in points in 2009-10.

Likely to Disappoint
Shea Weber had a great offensive year for a defensemen scoring 23 goals and handing out 30 assists in 81 games. Those numbers conceal the fact that Weber was extremely streaky in 2008-09 and had huge droughts without any form of production (between January 17th and February 21st, Weber failed to score even once and tallied only one assist). His 23 goals were a career-high, and were 17 more than he scored in 2007-08 when he appeared in just 54 games because of a leg injury. Weber, who has a bomb for a shot, took 251 shots in 2008-09 which is a mark that stands well above the 152 times he put the puck on net in both 2007-08 and in 2006-07. It's hard to predict back-to-back seasons of 20-goals from a blue liner, and because of his massive output last season he will likely be overvalued somewhat heading into the upcoming season. After all, the man is a (-5) over the past two seasons.