Offseason Overview: New Orleans Hornets

June 24, 2009 3:30pm CDT

The Hornets finished seventh in the Western Conference just one season after falling behind just the Lakers for the top spot. Chris Paul continued to improve his MVP-like game, but the rest of the roster battled significant ailments throughout the season. The injury-thinned squad was humiliated by the Nuggets in the first round by a 4-1 series mark. Ownership is trying its best to keep its head above water but operating in the black is proving to be difficult.

Cap situation: $77.6 million committed to 11 players. League salary cap estimated at $58 million for 2009-2010 season.

Retuning players: Chris Paul, David West, Peja Stojakovic, Tyson Chandler, Rasual Butler, James Posey, Antonio Daniels, Morris Peterson, Hilton Armstrong, Julian Wright, and Devin Brown

Key free agents: Sean Marks and Melvin Ely

Five Burning Questions

1) Should they try to reduce payroll?
Mostly due to injuries, the Hornets regressed last season when many expected them to legitimately contend for the Western Conference title. Roughly the same lineup boasted a 56-26 record in the 2007-08 season. Although it's a big "if," a healthy Hornets squad still has the chops to compete with the best teams in the league, but they may not have the firepower to overcome the Lakers or Spurs in a seven-game series. This creates a very difficult question for ownership. If they don't think they are a championship-caliber club, should they continue to operate out of the luxury tax? To make matters worse, the Hornets stand to be in the same scenario next offseason - paying the same group of aging players enough money to keep the team from improving via free agency. Cutting payroll makes a lot of sense.

2) What types of moves can be made?
The draft is tomorrow, and there are certainly some moves that could be made by the Hornets. Look for them to shop Chandler, Stojakovic, Posey, and Daniels and try to move up to the early teens or possibly even higher. I expect those same four names to be shopped throughout the summer, primarily for expiring contracts. One scenario would put Chandler and Posey or Daniels in Miami for Jermaine O'Neal's gigantic expiring deal. Other trades could involve Ray Allen, Josh Howard, Jerry Stackhouse, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. As you can see, not every move would be shipping talent for dead weight. I think the team would still make the playoffs behind Chris Paul, David West, and the expiring contracts that come in return.

3) Will Julian Wright and Hilton Armstrong actually contribute?
Wright has been a nightmare on offense as he is out of control more often than not. Despite what he believes, he does not have three-point range, and he hit only 56.7 percent of his free throws last season. Defensively, he is surprisingly above-average. He is still just 22, and his defense keeps him in the mix. But until he disciplines offensively and starts hitting free throws, I don't see him being a significant contributor. Wright is a sound option against some of the better scoring small forwards out West such as Carmelo Anthony, Richard Jefferson, Stephen Jackson, and Kevin Durant. Armstrong made 29 starts last season when Chandler was down, but he didn't do much with his opportunity. That's the story of his NBA career, which may be nearing its end if he does not make some kind of breakthrough in 2009-10. He's not a good rebounder and turns the ball over too often. He has some lateral quickness and can block shots, but he really needs to figure out how to hit the glass. With Sean Marks possibly leaving in free agency, Armstrong could see more minutes this season - which is not necessarily a good thing if you're a Hornets fan.

4) How much does Peja Stojakovic have left?
Stojakovic was limited to just 61 games last season due to a sprained ankle and more back issues. The 32-year-old shooter's 13.3 scoring average was his lowest since coming off the bench for the Kings back in 1999-00. Perhaps even more alarming, is that the once deadeye marksman hit a mere 39.9 percent of his field goal attempts, including a 37.8 percent mark from behind the arc. Back injuries have caused more than a few players an abrupt drop off in production, followed by retirement. Peja's back has been an issue since 2006, and it limited him to only 13 games in his first season with the Hornets. Unfortunately for the Hornets, he is due $29.5 million over the next two seasons. There's no chance he will be worth it. In fact, the team should be pleased to get another 120 games out of him in that span. Hopefully, in those contests he is able to play, he is more accurate with his shooting. He's not of much use if he is not.

5) Who backs up the frontline?
Aside from West and Chandler, the Hornets only have Armstrong on their frontline. That's one reason that they will try and re-sign Sean Marks. They will also seek out a power forward to sign with their Mid-Level Exception. Players that may get consideration are Joe Smith, Antonio McDyess, Chris Wilcox, and Stromile Swift. Seeing how they already tried to acquire Wilcox once, look for them to be in discussions with him again.

Ideal Situation: I have to think the Hornets will make a trade this summer (they would gladly shed Stojakovic, but no one will gamble on him and his contract). As previously mentioned, there are a number of scenarios and ideally they could land J. O'Neal in return for Chandler and Daniels (the Heat need another point guard unless they plan to use Wade there). O'Neal has the second largest expiring contract and he would be able to replace Chandler in the middle. They may also shop Posey, but his value is not very high following an injury-riddled season. Hopefully Eric Maynor, Ty Lawson, or Jeff Teague is around at the 21st pick, with Maynor being the ideal option. Finally, they would be wise to add a power forward, and Wilcox may offer the best mix of age, power, and price tag.

Resulting Depth Chart
PG: Chris Paul/Eric Maynor
SG: Rasual Butler/Devin Brown/Morris Peterson
SF: Peja Stojakovic/James Posey/Julian Wright
PF: David West/Chris Wilcox
C: Jermaine O'Neal/Hilton Armstrong/Sean Marks

Strengths: Better cap situation, three-point shooting, best point guard in the league
Weaknesses: Fragile, limited potential, age