Offseason Overview: Milwaukee Bucks

June 23, 2009 8:14pm CDT

The Bucks have been one of the least exciting franchises of late, pretty much ever since the days of Kareem-Abdul Jabbar and Oscar Robertson. They've missed the playoffs for three straight seasons and have gotten out of the first round just once (2000-01) over the past 20 seasons. Still, they were looking like a contender in 2008-09 until injuries cut short the seasons of both Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut. While they seemingly hurt their shot at contending next season upon the management's dealing of Richard Jefferson on Tuesday, it could free up enough cap space to sign one or two of their big free agents.

Cap Situation: $64.69 million committed to 13 players. League salary cap estimated at $58 million for 2009-2010 season.

Returning Players: Michael Redd, Andrew Bogut, Dan Gadzuric, Luke Ridnour, Charlie Bell, Joe Alexander, Luc Mbah a Moute, Salim Stoudamire, Kurt Thomas, Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto, Francisco Elson ($1.7 million player option) and Malik Allen ($1.3 million player option)

Free Agents: Charlie Villanueva (restricted), Ramon Sessions (restricted), Ersan Ilyasova (restricted), Keith Bogans and Damon Jones

5 Burning Questions

1) Can Bogut (back) and Redd (knee) enter next season healthy?
The Bucks were killed by these two players' failure to be on the court last year and need them to be healthy if they have any hopes of contending. Redd was part of the gold medal Olympic team last summer and is undeniably one of the deadliest shooters in the NBA, and Bogut could easily be the second-best center in the East after Dwight Howard. Also, Redd's contract tops $17 million in 2008-09, and Bogut's reaches eight digits, too. While you have to keep in mind that these reports are early, the news has been favorable thus far. Redd underwent surgery to repair his torn ACL at the beginning of March, at which point he was given a six-month timetable for recovery. He's apparently a bit ahead of schedule and on track to be fully recovered by training camp in October. Bogut should be completely healthy in time for training camp as well, as the stress fracture in his back appears to have healed. He's scheduled to begin on-court workouts sometime in July.

2) Can the Bucks get over the hump and end a three-year playoff drought?
Three seasons may not seem like too ugly of a stretch, but that means you've been in the bottom half of your conference each campaign, not good when your conference is the weak East. The Bucks got off to a decent start last season, teetering around .500 and in contention for a playoff spot for the first three months of the season. They lost both Redd and Bogut at the end of January but, surprisingly, were able to stay afloat heading into the All-Star break in mid-February. Things, unfortunately, unraveled from there, as the Bucks went just 10-19 after the break and ended at 34-48, good for 12th place in the Eastern Conference. The loss of Richard Jefferson certainly does not help their immediate outlook, as the deal was done for financial reasons, but that doesn't mean all hope is lost. Depending on how they handle their free agents and who they add in free agency and through the draft, this team could certainly win at least half their games next season, and keep in mind that 39-43 got the Pistons into the playoffs last year.

3) Can Milwaukee bring back Charlie Villanueva and/or Ramon Sessions?
The Bucks would love to bring each player back, as both men emerged as fine starters last season. The early forecast for each player wearing a Bucks uniform next year did not look at all favorable, although they may be able to bring one of the two back following the loss of Jefferson's contract. All three players they received from the Spurs come off the books after this year and could be cut much sooner. Villanueva and Sessions are each restricted free agents, meaning Milwaukee will have a chance to match any offer that another team chooses to extend to either player, and the Bucks will also be allowed to go over the salary cap to do so, though neither man will come cheaply. Villanueva has a $4.6 million player option with Milwaukee for next year that he clearly will not take after posting a career-highs in both points (16.2) and rebounds (6.7) last season. He's already expressed his desire to strongly consider whatever team offers him the most money, hinting that he'd only consider a discount if it was to play alongside a superstar like LeBron James. Sessions will also come with a hefty price tag after averaging over 15 points and 7.5 assists in 39 games as a starter last season. It looks like the Bucks, who lost Mo Williams in free agency last season, could be out a talented young point guard for the second straight year.

4) Who will the Bucks be looking at in the draft?
Given the presence of lethal shooter Redd at the two and the possible departure of Ramon Sessions, look for Milwaukee to target a point guard with its No. 10 pick in the first round. Luke Ridnour is still around and is a capable ball distributor, but he has a very small stature at 175 pounds, and thus has a tendency to get hurt and banged around on defense. Ricky Rubio and Stephen Curry should be off the board by the time pick No. 10 rolls around, and Brandon Jennings isn't any bigger than Ridnour. Look for the Bucks to decide between three much stronger options in Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holliday and Ty Lawson. Any of the three would likely come off the bench initially but push for starter's minutes over the course of the season and assure that, along with Ridnour, the Bucks would be suited with an extra facilitator for Redd and Bogut at all times.

5) Who can they add in free agency?
While DeJuan Blair and Tyler Hansbrough are also options at pick No. 10, the Bucks should be looking at add a nice, tough, defensive presence, as Villanueva, who may or may not return, lacks those qualities anyways. Luc Mbah a Moute and Malik Allen provide decent depth at the four, and Joe Alexander did not show nearly enough maturity as a rookie to be relied upon too heavily sophomore campaign. Look for the Bucks to add a veteran that will both serve as a mentor for Alexander, and also possibly push the softer Villanueva, if he returns, down to small forward, a role that the addition of Kurt Thomas already somewhat fills. Anderson Varejao, Hakim Warrick and Drew Gooden would all be ideal additions, though Mikki Moore or Shelden Williams are both efficient big men that would come at a much more affordable price.

Ideal Situation: It'd obviously be great if Bucks could keep Villanueva and Sessions, but expecting both players to return remainss unrealistic. For now, we'll say the Bucks fork over enough money to sign Villanueva with all the cash they freed up in the Jefferson deal, not to mention their apparent intentions to buyout and release Bruce Bowen and Fabricio Oberto, which would free even more space. Drafting a guard like Jonny Flynn would add nice strength to the point guard position along with the great intangibles he would bring along with him. Adding Mikki Moore would clearly take away from the perimeter offense compared to what Jefferson brought to the table, but also add intensity to the defense. Ersan Ilyasova is another big man that Bucks would like to sign that could potentially vie for minutes at power forward, and retaining Keith Bogans would provide a nice sub, along with Charlie Bell, at either the two or three. The Bucks desperately need Redd and Bogut to stay healthy, but as long as they do, they could most certainly contend in the East as long as their other parts just do what head coach Scott Skiles asks of them.

Resulting Depth Chart
PG: Luke Ridnour / Jonny Flynn
SG: Michael Redd / Charlie Bell / Salim Stoudamire
SF: Charlie Villanueva / Joe Alexander / Keith Bogans / Luc Mbah a Moute
PF: Mikki Moore / Kurt Thomas / Ersan Ilyasova / Malik Allen
C: Andrew Bogut / Francisco Elson

Strengths: Perimeter shooting, two capable starting points guards, explosive scoring
Weaknesses: Defense, toughness, health