Offseason Overview: Miami Heat

June 22, 2009 3:15pm CDT

Dwyane Wade rebounded from injuries and had the most impressive season of anyone in the league. Yes, LeBron James, Chris Paul, and Kobe Bryant may have been better, but their performances were a given. Wade was coming off knee and shoulder surgeries and almost single-handedly led the Heat to the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference, with a 43-39 record. That was a 28-win improvement on the previous season. To make the feat more impressive, the team was led by rookie head coach Erik Spoelstra, who at 39, was the youngest coach in the NBA.

Cap situation:
$69.6 million committed to 11 players. League salary cap estimated at $58 million for 2009-2010 season.

Returning players:
Dwyane Wade, Jermaine O'Neal, Michael Beasley, Udonis Haslem, Mario Chalmers, Daequan Cook, Yakhouba Diawara, James Jones, Mark Blount, Dorell Wright, and Chris Quinn.

Key free agents:
Jamario Moon, Jamaal Magloire, Luther Head, and Joel Anthony.

Five Burning Questions

1) Can they get Wade to sign an extension this summer?
Wade is on the hook for one more season at $15.8 million, and he has a player option for $17.1 million the following year. If he were to reach a max contract this summer, he would only be able to command 25 percent of the cap figure, or roughly $14.5 million in his first season, which is less than what he is currently scheduled to make. If Wade were to wait until next summer, he could command 30 percent of that number, or $17.4 million. You can see why he would prefer to wait. Given the current future of the Heat's salary cap, they will not only have enough money to make him a max offer next summer (which I expect him to take), but they will also have enough money to add a second max player.

2) Will Beasley make the significant impact that is expected?
Beasley spent the majority of his rookie season in a reserve role, despite being the No. 2 overall selection in last summer's loaded draft. The Heat maintained all season long that he was a power forward, meaning he had to play behind Udonis Haslem. Almost immediately after their season ended, they made it public that they would now transition him to small forward so that he could get into the starting lineup. We're not sure what took them so long, but Beasley is clearly talented enough to be a starting forward in this league. Beasley told the Sun-Sentinel that he is focused this summer on improving his: pick and roll work, jump shooting, ball handling, and quickness. Beasley managed 13.9 points and 5.4 rebounds per game, despite only playing 24.8 minutes per game as a rookie. That translates to 20.1 points and 7.9 rebounds per 36 minutes of action. In his eight April games, he produced 20.6 points and 8.6 rebounds in 31.3 minutes per game while shooting 55 percent from the field, including 50 percent from three-point range. I have no doubts that Beasley will be a 20-point-per-game player as a starter in his sophomore season, and I still feel he is the most talented player in his class.

3) Will O'Neal make the significant impact that is expected?
O'Neal was a huge disappointment following his acquisition from the Toronto Raptors. The center managed just 13 points and 5.3 rebounds with the Heat, although he did manage to block two shots per game. Following the season, Pat Riley let it be known that O'Neal had his surgically repaired left knee drained multiple times following his addition to the Heat roster. At the start of next season, he will be a year and a half removed from knee surgery, so we can expect the knee to be stronger. He is working with noted trainers Tim Grover and Joe Abunassar this summer, which is a statement of his continued dedication. Finally, O'Neal is entering his contract year, and although there are a load of better players slated to be free agents next summer, centers will still be in high demand, meaning he could potentially land another sweet deal if he manages to play well in 2009-10. Clearly, there are a lot of variables that point to a strong performance next season - if he can stay healthy.

4) How can they improve their roster?
The Heat are already beyond the luxury tax, so it's difficult to imagine them being players in the free-agent market outside of offering their Mid-Level Exception and re-signing their own players. Jamaal Magloire has already said he would come back to the Heat at a discount, and that's a move that should be made. However, they have more than enough pieces to work some sign-and-trades for free agents, and the good old fashion trade will be an option this summer as well. Try this on for size: outside of team options on Beasley, Jones, Cook, and Chalmers, the Heat do not currently have a single player signed for the 2010/11 season! That means they have $43.7 million of expiring contracts, not even counting Wade, who will opt out after next season barring a severe injury. As has been made clear by now, expiring contracts are hot commodities. O'Neal and his $23 million expiring contract is an extremely attractive piece in regards to next summer's superlative free-agent class. Mark Blount has an $8 million expiring deal, and he has already demanded to be played or to be traded. Haslem is still an effective starter, and he carries a $7.1 million deal. The team could easily move lesser contracts to acquire one or more first round picks. Some sign-and-trade targets they may pursue include Carlos Boozer, Lamar Odom, David Lee, Raymond Felton, and Rasheed Wallace. Simply put, if Pat Riley works the phones as he usually does, expect the Heat to be heavily rumored in multiple trades throughout the offseason. Of course, they could always sit back and hold onto all of their expiring deals and put together a true championship contender next offseason.

5) The curious case of 2010/11 - Act now or build a dynamo next summer?
Assuming Wade opts out of his contract, the Heat have it within their power to not have a single player under contract next season. Of course, they could pick up all four team options - on Beasley, Jones, Cook, and Chalmers. I suspect Jones will be let go to make their committed salary a diminutive $8 million headed into next summer. If they can be patient and hold onto all of their expiring contracts, they could then re-sign Wade and then add Amare Stoudemire or Chris Bosh (or Yao Ming, Dirk Nowitzki, LeBron James, etc.) next summer. Even after signing two max deals next year, they would have enough money to get one or two other high-level, non-max free agents such as Marcus Camby, Josh Howard, Udonis Haslem, T.J. Ford or maybe even Steve Nash.

Ideal Situation, Scenario 1: The Heat put together their best possible team for 2009-10 by working sign-and-trades for David Lee (Haslem and James Jones - $11.4 million expiring) and Raymond Felton (Blount and Quinn - $9 million expiring). They re-sign Magloire and Joel Anthony to protect against the inevitable O'Neal injury. And finally they use a portion of their Mid-Level Exception to further bolster their front line with Chris Wilcox.

Resulting Depth Chart
PG: Raymond Felton/Mario Chalmers
SG: Dwyane Wade/Daequan Cook
SF: Michael Beasley/Yakhouba Diawara/Dorell Wright
PF: David Lee/Chris Wilcox
C: Jermaine O'Neal/Jamaal Magloire/Joel Anthony

Ideal Situation, Scenario 2: The team sends James Jones and his $4.32 million expiring deal to Detroit for Amir Johnson (who is on the block) and the Pistons' No. 15 pick (also on the block). They select amongst Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague, Tyler Hansbrough, James Johnson, and B.J. Mullens in the first round. They then sit on their $60 million-plus of expiring contracts (including Wade) while playing the season with:

Resulting Depth Chart for 2009-10
PG: Mario Chalmers/Chris Quinn
SG: Dwyane Wade/Daequan Cook
SF: Michael Beasley/Yakhouba Diawara/Dorell Wright
PF: Udonis Haslem/Amir Johnson
C: Jermaine O'Neal/Jamaal Magloire/Joel Anthony/Mark Blount

That team is still good enough to make the playoffs in the East. Next offseason, they offer max contracts to Wade and Chris Bosh. They also sign T.J. Ford and Marcus Camby and re-sign some of their second unit. Amazingly, they actually have that much cap space available.

Resulting Depth Chart for 2010-11
PG: T.J. Ford/Mario Chalmers
SG: Dwyane Wade/Daequan Cook
SF: Michael Beasley/Yakhouba Diawara
PF: Chris Bosh/Amir Johnson
C: Marcus Camby/Jamaal Magloire/Joel Anthony