Offseason Overview: Memphis Grizzlies

June 21, 2009 12:22pm CDT

The Grizzlies have won 24, 22 and 22 games over the last three seasons. Owner Michael Heisley may be growing restless, but general manager Chris Wallace and the franchise is in position to build something great. The Grizzlies own the No. 2 and No. 27 picks, a nice core of young talent, and a ton of cap space. Can they use their advantageous position to build a contender? Or will they be bullied by Ricky Rubio and ignored by free agents?

Cap situation: $34.2 million committed to eight players. League salary cap estimated at $58 million for 2009-2010 season. The total will rise by only $3 million if they make a qualifying offer to Hakim Warrick.

Returning players: Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo, Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Marko Jaric, Darko Milicic, Greg Buckner, Darrell Arthur

Key free agents: Hakim Warrick (restricted), Chris Mihm, Quinton Ross, Mike Wilks, Darius Miles

Five Burning Questions
1) Who will they take with the No. 2 pick?
General manager Chris Wallace and head coach Lionel Hollins flew to Spain in May to watch and meet with Ricky Rubio, but the point guard has yet to visit Memphis. The team says they will still consider Rubio even if he doesn't hold an individual workout and even if the point guard doesn't want to play for the Grizzlies. Rubio is widely considered the second-best talent in the draft, but he also carries the weight of a $6.6 million buyout of his Spanish League contract. If the Grizzlies shy away from Rubio, center Hasheem Thabeet is the next top talent on the board. The problem? Center Marc Gasol is coming off a nice rookie year and is only 24.

2) Any chance they trade the pick?
There is an excellent chance. The Grizzlies may have already talked with the Clippers about trying to move up to No. 1, but reports suggest that the Clippers won't deal down unless the trade partner takes Baron Davis and his huge contract. The Kings (No. 4) would love to land Rubio, but there is a good chance he slides down to that spot. Still. We expect the Grizzlies to talk with the Kings, Timberwolves (No. 6), Knicks (No. 8), and possibly even the Nets (No. 9). We get the sense that Wallace would love to shift down a few spots and get his hands on Memphis guard Tyreke Evans, even thought the Grizzlies badly need a power forward.

3) Will they be a player in free agency?
As the cap situation shows, the Grizzlies have a ton of room, even if they bring back Warrick. They have a lot of "dead" money (Antoine Walker, Steve Francis, Damon Stoudamire) coming off the books this summer, and Darko's big contract only runs through the end of the 2009-10 season. So, the Grizzlies have the room to bring in a huge catch. But do they have the allure? Or the need? The Grizzlies have a nice core of young talent, and they may not want to cut off the progress of, say, Arthur by bringing in a notable power forward. That being said, they do have the room to make an offer to Carlos Boozer, Lamar Odom, Paul Millsap (restricted), or David Lee (restricted). We all know they could use the rebounding. The Grizzlies may be better off targeting mid-level players, signing Gay to an extension, and taking on more fat contracts that they can write off in a year. They could then be a major player in the summer of 2010.

4) Do they have enough scoring?
Only the Bobcats (93.6) scored fewer points per game in 2008-09 than the Grizzlies (93.9). It may be easy to see a team with Mayo and Gay and assume the Grizzlies are fine in that area, but they don't shoot particularly well and were near the bottom of the NBA in three-pointers made. Conley and Gasol both became bigger offensive threats over the second half of last season, and Arthur will hopefully grow into more of a threat. However, the answer to this question is "no," and the answer to their scoring problem may lie in our fifth burning query.

5) How do they improve their depth?
If the Grizzlies bring back Warrick, they will have nine players under contract. If we add in the No. 2 and No. 27 picks, their roster is starting to get very full. Thabeet brings necessary defense, but we still see a team with a weak bench that doesn't do much on the offensive end of the court. How weak? Remember, this is a team that signed Darius Miles last year. The Grizzlies can't expect to uncover a help-now gem with the No. 27 selection, and this is where we once again return to the question of free agency. They should consider going after a big man like Brandon Bass or a bench player with some firepower, like Eddie House or Ronald Murray.

Ideal Situation: The Grizzlies trade with the Kings (No. 4), receive something in return, and draft Evans. Chase Budinger falls into their lap at No. 27. The rookies will immediately fill a much-needed bench role. Come free agency time, they work out a sign-and-trade with the Knicks to land Lee. Warrick and Milicic's contracts head out the door. They make a (reasonable) offer that the Magic can't match and add center Martin Gortat. They finish the summer by bringing in Flip Murray and signing Gay to an extension.

Resulting Depth Chart
PG: Mike Conley/Tyreke Evans/Marko Jaric
SG: O.J. Mayo/Flip Murray/Greg Buckner
SF: Rudy Gay/Chase Budinger
PF: David Lee/Darrell Arthur
C: Marc Gasol/Martin Gortat

Strengths: Youth, rising talent, depth, cap space beyond next season
Weaknesses: Youth, defense (both interior and perimeter)