Offseason Overview: Indiana Pacers

June 18, 2009 1:28pm CDT

The Pacers were the fifth-highest scoring team in the league last season and ranked fourth in the NBA in three-pointers per game. However, their defense allowed an average of 106.2 points, fourth-most in the league, and they finished 36-46 and three games out of the playoffs. Coach Jim O'Brien will get another shot despite being 20 games under .500 through two seasons, but the coach can't afford to miss the postseason again. The team needs to find a successful mix to surround superstar Danny Granger, who averaged 25.8 points per game last season.

Cap situation: $57.8 million committed to nine players. Team is expected to reach buyout agreement with Jamaal Tinsley which would lower the committed salary. League salary cap estimated at $58 million for 2009-2010 season.

Returning players: Danny Granger, Troy Murphy, T.J. Ford, Mike Dunleavy, Brandon Rush, Jeff Foster, Roy Hibbert, and Travis Diener ($1.74 million player option).

Key free agents: Jarrett Jack (restricted), Marquis Daniels ($7.35 million team option), Rasho Nesterovic, and Stephen Graham.

Five Burning Questions

1) How much is too much for Jack?
Jack started 52 games for the Pacers, and Trail Blazers fans had to wonder how they let him slip away. In those starts, Jack averaged 15.6 points, 4.5 assists, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.2 steals on .479/.361/.884 shooting. Larry Bird has made it no secret that he loves how Jack competes and carries himself as a professional. He has made it clear he wants to hold onto the restricted free agent, despite the presence of Ford on the roster. The good news is that the free agent class is loaded with point guards, as is the draft. It's likely that Jack is the third, fourth or fifth option for teams looking to reload at the position. He'll be 26 at the start of next season, and it may be wise for the Pacers to try and lock him up long term. His price tag is still relatively low. Five years, $30 million sounds about right, but it's likely he gets more than that.

2) Will the Tinsley situation ever get resolved?
Tinsley and the Pacers have an arbitration hearing on July 27, and the expected result is a buyout of his final two years of his contract. Whatever the agreed upon amount is, that number will likely be cut in half and be applied to the 2009 and 2010 salary figures. It's not a perfect solution for the Pacers, but it finally appears they will resolve this matter. He is due $14.7 million over the next two seasons, and I would assume the buyout is for something around $10 million. This means that he would count $5 million against the 2009 cap rather than $7.2 million.

3) Can Dunleavy be counted on in 2009-10?
Dunleavy's right knee limited him to just 18 games last season. He only missed 10 games in his first six seasons combine, and he averaged a career-high 19.1 points in 2007-08. Dunleavy had surgery to remove a bone spur the size of which his surgeon had never seen before. The spur damaged his patella tendon in his right knee, and coach Jim O'Brien called the injury career-threatening. O'Brien also added that he is preparing for next season as if he won't be back. The earliest projected return date is sometime in January. In summary, no, you can't count on Dunleavy next season. His absence means Brandon Rush could play a big role next season.

4) Who gets picked at No. 13?
The Pacers are thin at both shooting guard and power forward. Expect them to fill one of those holes with this lottery pick. Bird has talked about adding defense this offseason. Jordan Hill has been slipping fast, but it's unlikely he falls this far. Other players they'll keep a close eye on are Gerald Henderson, DeJuan Blair, James Johnson, Jrue Holliday, Terrence Williams, B.J. Mullens, and Tyler Hansbrough. Hill would be a steal, but that's probably not going to happen.

5) Who are the free agent targets?
The Pacers are not in the best of financial situations, but they could still make some moves in the free agent market. A friendly buyout in the Tinsley negotiations would really help. Unless they take a point guard in the draft, expect them to retain Jack's services. At the right prices, they could keep their other free agents, Nesterovic and Graham in particular. Daniels is a good player, but it's unlikely the Pacers can afford to keep him. Other players that may be good, cheap fits willing to play for the Pacers are Brandon Bass, Von Wafer, Brian Skinner, Shelden Williams, Ime Udoka, Raef LaFrentz (seriously!), and Ron Artest (not seriously). The Pacers are not exactly a prime destination, so they will have to outbid other teams to land free agents.

Ideal Situation: Although I don't see retaining Jack as necessary, I have to side with Bird on this one. Hopefully the Pacers can get him locked up for five years at a fair price ($30-$35 million). They would also be wise to hold onto Graham. They will have to use a pick and a free-agent signing to fill in holes at shooting guard and power forward. Bass is a very good player, and one worth adding to help their lack of depth in the front court. Henderson is already an above-average defender, and he's the type of team player the team needs.

Resulting Depth Chart
PG Jarrett Jack/T.J. Ford/Travis Diener
SG Brandon Rush/Gerald Henderson
SF Danny Granger/Stephen Graham/Mike Dunleavy
PF Troy Murphy/Brandon Bass/Shelden Williams
C Jeff Foster/Roy Hibbert

Strengths: All-Star forwards, point guard depth, scoring
Weaknesses: Defense, centers, no playoff experience