Mock Draft Update

June 24, 2009 3:49pm CDT

This article was originally posted on June 19, but following the Timberwolves-Wizards trade, I have decided to alter it slightly.
An NBA executive recently called the upcoming NBA draft "the worst draft in decades." That's pretty bold. Worse than the 2000 draft when Kenyon Martin went No. 1, Stromile Swift No. 2, Darius Miles No. 3, and Marcus Fizer No. 4? Surely not.

The same executive went on to say, "People are going to get excited about guys. But this is a terrible draft." Count me as one of those getting excited about it.

In my first mock, I did a run down of what I would like to see happen. This included trades throughout the lottery that left the Top 5 picks all out of order (Griffin to OKC, Thabeet to WAS, Evans to LAC, Harden to CHA, and Hill to MEM. I also had Rubio and Daye opting out of the Draft). This time around I will stick with the traditionalists, and make my best guess as to how this draft will play out without trades. Keep in mind though, there are ALWAYS trades.

Following each predicted pick, I'll also try and privy you to the relevant news around the players, their scouting reports, and teams involved at the draft slot.

1. Blake Griffin to the Los Angeles Clippers.
Griffin will be selected first overall, but he will not find himself in an ideal situation in L.A. Zach Randolph was one of only two qualifying players (the other being Dwight Howard) to average 20 points and 10 rebounds last season, and it seems impossible that Griffin would win this starting job. If the Clips don't deal the pick, expect another frustrating rookie season, a la Michael Beasley's 2008-09 campaign. Of course, they could always try and trade Randolph, but that will not be an easy task.

2. Hasheem Thabeet to the Memphis Grizzlies.
Honestly, I don't see the Grizzlies staying at this spot. I give more credit than most to Thabeet's potential impact, but he and Marc Gasol are both 7-feet tall and both are pretty slow. It would be difficult to start both players. There's just not enough versatility. I can't imagine them gambling on Rubio either, unless they have a trade worked out. Minnesota could deal multiple picks for Rubio and the Knicks may try a sign-and-trade of David Lee. The young point guard has not opted out of his Spanish team deal yet and he has heard poor reports on Memphis from fellow Spaniards Pau Gasol and Juan Carlos Navarro. Whoever their trade partner will be (Sacramento, New York, Minnesota, Golden State...?) expect Thabeet or Rubio to go second. James Harden and Tyreke Evans are also in the mix.

3. James Harden to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
This is a sticky situation or OKC. They would love to add Thabeet, but if he's off the board they will have to make a tough decision amongst Rubio, Harden, and Evans. The problem with Rubio is the same as it is for Memphis - you may be drafting a player that elects to play in Spain next season. The problem with Evans is he needs the ball in his hands to be effective, much like Russell Westbrook. Harden is a solid three-point shooter with good penetration skills and a 6-foot-11 wingspan who can play solid defense against other shooting guards. I could also see the Thunder reaching for Stephen Curry here, and honestly, I think Harden would be a mistake this high up.

4. Ricky Rubio to the Sacramento Kings.
I'm a believer. The Kings are the only team that Rubio has worked out for (at least up until now) and he would start for the team immediately. He can certainly create shots with the best of them, and with Kevin Martin, Andres Nocioni, Spencer Hawes, Francisco Garcia, and Rashad McCants, there are a lot of shooters on the floor for him to target. Rubio recently tweeted that Arco Arena was "brutal." Regardless, he and his agent seem to have targeted the Kings (who could be a team on the move in a season or two). The Kings are also rumored to love Tyreke Evans and Jonny Flynn and their GM feels that chemistry was a problem last season. Would adding an 18-year-old point guard help that situation? Also, I feel that we will see Rubio next season in a Knicks, Warriors, Timberwolves or Thunder uniform, meaning the Kings may be willing to draft and deal as well.

5. Tyreke Evans to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
This is why I am excited about this draft. To get a guy like Evans at No. 5 (many mocks have him even lower) would be exceptional. He is in a similar mold to Derrick Rose minus the passing, but plus size and a jump shot. He is a combo guard, but he's much more of a scorer than creator at this point in his career. The T'Wolves could comfortably plug him in at either guard position.

6. Stephen Curry to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
I really expect Curry to play for the Knicks next season, but the Timberwolves should grab him here and use him as bait for the Knickerbockers and whoever they take at No. 8 (likely a point guard like Flynn, Holiday, or Jennings). Minnesota has a ton of expiring contracts they could send with Curry and may be one of the few teams interested in taking Eddy Curry off of the Knicks hands. Stephen is a capable point guard, but he's also the best shooter in the draft.

7. Jordan Hill to the Golden State Warriors.
The Warriors front office is under a lot of pressure to win now, and while they could use a true point guard, the kids available are too raw to play much right now. Hill brings an immediate toughness and physicality that the team is also desperate for. Another scenario would involve them trading this pick and Jamal Crawford, whose contract they want to shed, in return for a veteran that immediately fills a void. If Minnesota and Memphis have a deal worked out, the Grizzlies would want the Timberwolves to select Hill and send him their way.

8. Jonny Flynn to the New York Knicks.
As previously stated, I expect the Knicks to end up with Stephen Curry on their roster. If he's already gone, they will draft whoever the other team wants at this spot. Expect that to be Flynn, Jennings, Holiday or maybe DeMar Derozan. Flynn's strength, shooting, ball-handling, and leadership give him a good chance to stick in the pros, but he's still pretty undisciplined. If the Knicks cannot get their hands on Curry (or Rubio), I think Jennings would actually be the better player here. Flynn, coming from Syracuse, might be a big hit with Knicks fans. Gerald Henderson has also been mentioned at this spot, but I can't see that happening.

9. DeMar DeRozan to the Toronto Raptors.
This pick makes a lot of sense as the Raptors have virtually no wing players on their roster and DeRozan can play either spot. I love his athleticism and his basketball skills allude to a feast of NBA potential. DeRozan stock seems to be slipping of late, but I cannot imagine the Raptors passing on him.

10. Brandon Jennings to the Milwaukee Bucks.
I previously had DeJuan Blair in this spot, but following the Richard Jefferson trade, it appears the team will be able to re-sign Charlie Villanueva. They are also shopping Luke Ridnour, which makes me believe they want a point guard at this spot. There will be plenty on the board, and they are rumored to really like Flynn. If he is gone, I expect the team to go with Brandon Jennings. Jennings is said to be sliding, and some mocks have dropped him out of the Top 20 this week. However, I still think he is a deadly point guard who is a year or two away from being a big difference maker.

11. James Johnson to the New Jersey Nets.
The Nets are said to be shopping Yi Jianlian, meaning they are probably in the market for a power forward. Blair will be in consideration here, but his two surgically repaired ACLs may scare them off. James Johnson is one player who has seen his stock rise of late. Although his defense needs work, he has the strength and agility to make a big impact on the boards. He is also developed on offense and has a nice shooting touch. I think Hansbrough, Clark, Blair, and Holiday would also get serious consideration here.

12. Tyler Hansbrough to the Charlotte Bobcats.
James Johnson has been climbing up draft boards, but Hansbrough has some unparalleled advantages. He's an in-state player who owns all the UNC records - the same school that produced legends Michael Jordan and Larry Brown who so happen to be the Bobcats' owner and coach, respectively. Gerald Henderson and Terrence Williams will get serious consideration here as well. To know how I feel about Hansbrough, check this out.

13. Jrue Holiday to the Indiana Pacers.
The Pacers may find themselves considering Jeff Teague, the better shooter, at this position, but I have to think they realize the obvious - they are a very poor defensive team. Holiday gives them a sound defender with a ton of potential. They have a lot of options here that fill various needs including Gerald Henderson, James Johnson, and B.J. Mullens. I could see them going with any of that mix. Holiday gets the nod because of their rumored desire to add yet another point guard. Yeah, I don't get that one either.

14. Earl Clark to the Phoenix Suns.
Clark is a very versatile forward not too much unlike Lamar Odom. Despite his size, he is an effective and dynamic face-to-the-basket player. He was the best player on the best team in the best conference last season, but his desire has been questioned by scouts and league executives alike. While I agree that he is guilty of the occasional poor showing, I think that's the case with most basketball players, even the pros. You don't average nine rebounds per game in the Big East if you are lazy. He can handle the ball with either hand, has good vision, is a precise passer, has a lot of explosiveness, and challenges a lot of shots with his 7-3 wingspan. He's probably better off leaving his three-point shot in college, at least throughout his rookie campaign. Chase Budinger may be the more fan friendly option, but Clark's upside, passing, shot-blocking, quickness and ability to excel in the pick and roll should trump Steve Kerr's love of Budinger's shooting ability.

15. DeJuan Blair to the Detroit Pistons.
Blair is the best big man left on the board, and that will likely force the Pistons hand. Not that it is a bad thing. I've been impressed with Blair over the past year, and dropping 40 pounds in four weeks is amazing. Yes, he's just 6-foot-6, but his 7-foot-2 wingspan is freakish. His work ethic is great, his touch is soft, and his nastiness is needed. He is built similarly to Charles Barkley when he was coming out of Auburn, but Blair may have even more strength and a similar mean streak. The Pistons will need to add size as both Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess could both be gone in free agency and they traded Amir Johnson. Blair's stock has dropped amid concerns about his knees, but they weren't a problem for him last season when he averaged 12.3 boards. The team will also give consideration to B.J. Mullens, Gerald Henderson, and Ty Lawson in this spot.

16. Gerald Henderson to the Chicago Bulls
It would be no surprise to see Henderson land in the lottery, as he is mature, defensively advanced, and has impressive intangibles, but he doesn't have consistent three-point range and is a little short for a shooting guard. He would fit in great with a Bulls squad that stands to let Ben Gordon walk in free agency. His basketball IQ and maturity would make him a good candidate to contribute off of the bench almost immediately.

17. Eric Maynor to the Philadelphia 76ers.
Even if they manage to re-sign Andre Miller, the Sixers still have to add a ball-handler to this roster. It was a tough call between Ty Lawson, Patrick Mills and Maynor, but the Sixers go with Maynor for a couple of reasons. He's two-inches taller than the other two, plays better defense than Mills, and has more range than Lawson. Maynor put up 22.4 points per game last season and Philly would certainly welcome some more backcourt offense. Chase Budinger could also get consideration here, but with the recent acquisition of Jason Kapono, that seems redundant. Jeff Teague also represents another player already on the roster, Lou Williams.

18. B.J. Mullens to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
I could see Minnesota going with Chase Budinger here as well, but the new regime will be unable to pass on the 7-foot-tall Mullens. Had Mullens gone out and played hard all season as a freshman, we would be talking about a sure lottery pick. However, he was lackadaisical more often than not, did not rebound well, played awful defense, looked lazy, and made a ton of turnovers. So why does he go in the Top 20? Body. He's got tremendous size to go with balanced athleticism and good hands. The Timberwolves could use some height as both Kevin Love and Al Jefferson are short for their positions. Mullens gives them a true center, but will he ever develop defensively and mentally?

19. Jeff Teague to the Atlanta Hawks.
Teague is an intriguing prospect as he possesses the type of speed, athleticism, and scoring ability to be a force in the league. He resembles Aaron Brooks in a variety of ways and could be a factor off of the bench as early as his rookie season. The knocks on him are that he is not a true point guard, has a very slight build, and is less than adequate on defense. Ty Lawson and Austin Daye will also get long looks here.

20. Chase Budinger to the Utah Jazz.
The Jazz really wanted to land Tyler Hansbrough here to help ease the pain of losing Carlos Boozer and/or Paul Millsap to free agency this summer. However, he won't be on the board. Options include Budinger or Wayne Ellington, who could provide the three-point shooting they need, Ty Lawson, who would be able to effectively spell Deron Williams, Austin Daye, who has perhaps the highest upside, or Terrence Williams, a wing who has the toughness that Jerry Sloan loves.

21. Terrence Williams to the New Orleans Hornets.
Williams does the little things very well, but his shooting needs a lot of work. That should come in time, but what he can provide immediately is strong defense, exceptional rebounding for his position, ability to thrive in transition and crisp passing. He's got that "NBA body" coupled with truly excellent intangibles and he's coming from the best team in the NCAA's most competitive conference. Still, his lack of shooting may cause him to fall.

22. Ty Lawson to the Dallas Mavericks.
There's no promise that Jason Kidd will return, and that would leave the Mavericks scrambling for a point guard. I expect them to take one here. Darren Collison, Nick Calathes, and Patrick Mills are on the board as well, but Lawson is the most NBA-ready. He could develop into a starter at the next level. In fact, he may just be the best college point guard in this draft.

23. Austin Daye to the Sacramento Kings.
I really would have preferred Daye go back to college, but he has enough raw talent to be considered in the lottery. The Kings can afford to wait a year or two for him to add some bulk and sharpen his game because they figure to be a couple years from the playoffs. There are a lot of reasons GMs fall in love with 6-foot-10 tweeners with super-long arms, a smooth jumper, and three-point range. So what if he's under 200 pounds. If he's on the board here, I'll actually be surprised. If he falls past this spot, I'd be shocked.

24. Nick Calathes to the Portland Trailblazers.
There's been discussion that the Blazers would like to add some toughness in the offseason, and Calathes certainly isn't that. Players like Sam Young, Toney Douglas, and even Patrick Mills might be the better option if that is something they value highly. However, if they value exceptional passing, smooth shooting, size, and basketball IQ, Calathes is their man. True, he is a step slow and will have trouble on the defensive end, but he could be a good fit for Portland's offense. He's currently playing in Greece and could be left over to develop. Omri Casspi will also get consideration.

25. Darren Collison to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
It's very easy to imagine the Thunder trading this pick to a team wanting to get into the first round, like the Celtics, Heat, or Magic. However, if Collison is on the board, expect them to keep it. They already know he can play in the same backcourt as Russell Westbrook, as the two did at UCLA. His defense and winning team-first mentality would be a welcome addition to Scott Brooks' Thunder.

26. Omri Casspi to the Chicago Bulls.
If the Bulls keep this pick, I would expect them to take someone that they can leave overseas for a season or two. Casspi has worked out well against his NCAA counterparts and the 6-foot-8 forward is generally considered the best international prospect in a very weak year. He is a high energy player who exhibits toughness and a strong work ethic. At best, he could resemble a younger more athletic version of Andres Nocioni.

27. Sam Young to the Memphis Grizzlies.
If the Grizzlies were to take the 24-year-old Young, he would be older than Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo, Darrell Arthur, and even Darko Milicic. Get the point? They aren't exactly in need of another prospect. Plus, Young can play both forward spots, positions where they could use some more cheap depth. Young brings with him excellent defense, toughness, work ethic, and athleticism. However, he may be a liability on the offensive end as he's neither a good passer or ball-handler.

28. Wayne Ellington to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
If Minnesota can walk away with Curry, Mullins, and Ellington this will look like a very good draft for the new regime. However, I have sincere doubts that they keep all three of these picks. Ellington has one of the best jump shots in this class, but he doesn't off much of anything else. They may look at DaJuan Summers, Patrick Mills, Derrick Brown, Danny Green and Toney Douglas in this spot as well.

29. Patrick Mills to the Los Angeles Lakers.
Coming out of St. Mary's certainly leads one to believe that Mills has not faced much competition. But he did shine throughout the Olympics. He is an electric scorer with great range. Think Eddie House with handles. He would be a nice option off the bench for any team. However, he is a particularly good fit for the Lakers' triangle offense as shooting is the primary need at the point guard position. They could go with a similar player in Toney Douglas at this spot, who offers a little more defense and a little less offense.

30. Jonas Jerebko to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The 6-foot-9 forward has a strong all-around game, especially on the defensive end. The best players on the board at this point appear to be guards, and the Cavs certainly need some size with this selection. He has good role-player potential and developed fundamentals. Jerebko's basketball IQ is high and at 22, he has already played a good amount of pro ball.

Best of the rest:
Toney Douglas
is an NBA defender with a lot of quickness, athleticism, and strength. He has three-point range and a strong work ethic. However, he's a below average passer, yet projects as a point guard.

DeMarre Carrol
can do everything from crashing the boards, to handling the ball, to hitting the 20-foot jumper. He has impressed almost everywhere he has worked out and is moving up draft boards in leaps.

Danny Green
has role-player written all over him. He is good on the defensive end, hits open three-pointers, has good size, and has a solid basketball IQ.

Marcus Thornton
has a ton of range and loves to shoot. He averaged 21.1 points per game at LSU, but is undersized to play shooting guard at the next level. He could be a nice source of quick offense off the bench for somebody though.

Josh Heytvelt
is a 6-foot-11 forward with a perimeter game. There are questions about his attitude, but if focused he'll be a solid early second round performer. His post game and defense need a lot of work.

Derrick Brown
showed a lot of athleticism and toughness with Xavier, but his offensive game will not translate well into the pros. He's a bit undersized for a power forward, but his near 7-foot-3 wingspan makes up for it.

Rodrigue Beaubois
is a long armed point guard who is extremely quick and excels at penetration. He is an advanced ball-handler and can defend his position well. Still his game is very raw and he could use more time overseas.

Jeff Pendergraph
brings good size and a sound basketball IQ, but he has limited upside. He is a good post player, but he'll need to add some muscle to get minutes at the next level.

DaJuan Summers
is a bit of a tweener at the forward position and his toughness has been questioned. He does have three-point range and a lot of potential, but does he have the work ethic to take the next step?

Jack McClinton
is an advanced offensive player but is just 6-foot tall. He is strong-willed and there's no doubt he will work hard to stick at the next level. He should find a role somewhere.

Sergey Gladyr
is the best international shooter in this draft, and he is just 19. Despite his age, the 6-foot-5 shooting guard excelled in the Ukranian first division (ok, so that's not exactly the epitome of competitiveness) and at the Reebok Eurocamp earlier this month.