Fantasy Golf: Hot Topics

June 30, 2009 9:29am CDT

~ Hot Topic of the Week ~

Here They Come
We are starting to see the light that shines over the midpoint of the 2009 PGA season (yes, we will be putting three majors in the books before that benchmark is officially reached; remember, the Fall Series stretches into mid-November).

Think about the journey traveled thus far.

We pondered the eventual return of The Great One. We watched as the early weeks were ruled by no-name golfers as Pat Perez, Dustin Johnson, Mark Wilson, Y.E. Yang, and Michael Bradley picked up victories. We saw a rising of the old - Zach Johnson taking the Sony Open, Kenny Perry winning at the FBR Open, Phil Mickelson taking victory at the Northern Trust and the WGC CA Championship, Retief Goosen earning the win at the Transitions Championship - and rise of the heir apparents - Geoff Ogilvy winning at the Mercedes Benz and the WGC Match Play Championship, Nick Watney winning at the Buick Invitational.

Then we watched Tiger "struggle" to top-10 finishes rather than dominating victories. We witnessed the fall of Vijay Singh to knee surgery. We discovered Sergio wouldn't be a force on the Tour as he mended his broken heart. We learned Lefty would be missing time as his wife battles cancer.

To make it all worse, the powers that were to be seemed to be failing. The top young names in the game were no longer making marks. They were struggling to find worth finishes, to make putts, to make waves, and to win. Watney gave us a glimpse. Ogilvy was the exception to the rule. Sean O'Hair was in the mix with regularity, but none were considered the face of the future. Those candidates were falling into the shadows.

Now, they are back. We'd like to present the three top golfers we were tabbing as our forces of reckoning for 2009 season when the season began, and we'd like to assure you that, while they were taking a bit of time to find their groove, they are back on the prowl.

Rory McIlroy
We fawned over this kid coming out of Northern Ireland when we found video of his Euro performances online. He's amazingly gifted, he's fearless, and he's got the intelligence to put it all to good use. He completed the 2008 season with an international tour that brought more than a few top-10 finishes. That put us on the scent and it appeared things were working in our favor as the 2009 campaign commenced. McIlroy started with a T5 finish at Abu Dhabi, a win at Dubai, and another strong finish that nearly brought a spot in the top four at the WGC Match Play Championship (his first PGA event of the season). He followed with T13 at the Honda Classic, T20 at the CA Championship, T19 at the Houston Open, T20 at The Masters. What else could you want?

Then, the wheels slipped momentarily, finishing T58 at the Heritage, missed cut at THE PLAYERS, and T50 at the Irish Open. It looked like McIlroy was hitting the realities of being too young to make it work all season long, but now, with his last four starts, we are right back on the bandwagon: fifth place at the BMW Championship, 12th place at the European Open, T10 at the US Open, and 15th at the BMW International. When the Open Championship (aka the British Open) hits the board, get McIlroy, and get him fast.

Hunter Mahan
After a memorable performance as a member of the victorious Ryder Cup squad a strong close to the 2008 season, we felt Mahan was well on his way to cracking through the ceiling and joining the ranks of the elite. However, while Mahan's early finishes brought occasional value - T11 at the Buick Invitational, T17 at the Northern Trust, T6 at the Houston Open - the bulk of the resume was covered with signs of instability and struggle, including T35 at the FBR Open, T69 at Pebble Beach, T53 at the CA Championship, T71 at THE PLAYERS, and T45 at the Byron Nelson.

Now, after his last three starts, we believe he is starting to click. Four weeks ago he hit the links at the Memorial to finish T14. He enjoyed a brief rest, hit the track at Bethpage Black for the US Open, and surged, shooting 68 on Friday and 68 again on Saturday to get in the hunt before a 72 on Sunday put him at T6. He followed that last week with another powerful move at the Travelers, shooting 66-70-63-64 to finish in fourth place.

There will be continued struggles for consistency, but the state of his game today has us believing he can be a stud.

Anthony Kim
Kim asserted his rights to the title of "prodigy" last season, making more than a few attempts to take titles throughout the season with several top performances against some of the best in the world. Kim is a small kid with a gigantic swing, a huge smile, some luxurious belt buckles, and a game that showed every sign of potential rise to the top. If we were going to see someone not named Phil go head to head with Tiger, Kim was the undeniable favorite.

When he started with a second-place finish at the Mercedes Benz, we were ready for his leap to begin, and we waited (missed cut at the FBR), and waited (58th at the CA Championship), and waited (T47 at Quail Hollow), and waited (T71 at the Texas Open), and waited (missed cut at THE PLAYERS and the Byron Nelson). It was starting to look like Kim was troubled, then reports surfaced of a possible injury, and fantasy owners were ready to jump ship.

We hope you held on. After another disappointment at the Crowne Plaza (T54), Kim found his game just in time for a surge at the US Open, finishing T16 with some of the best driving accuracy and putting he's put forth in some time. He followed that with T11 at the Travelers Championship, shooting 66-66-67-67. He's improved to third on the PGA's putting ranks (1.719 per green) and second in birdies (an average of 4.16 per round).

It's not too deep, but our hopes for continued success run deep. Watching Kim defend his title at the AT&T National this week, we believe, should solidify the sell.

~ Hot Hand ~

Paul Goydos
Understand where the 45-year-old Long Beach native is coming from. He started the season with tragedy as his ex-wife committed suicide and left his entire family in the midst of emotional catastrophe. He tried to get back in the swing but failed to make a dent in the PGA schedule, logging five missed cuts over his first six starts as the T17 at the Buick Invitational served as the only ray of hope. It was tough to watch, but Goydos stayed strong.

Then, a slight surge: T36 at the Arnold Palmer and T24 at the Zurich Classic. Those were tough courses with tough fields and Goydos played well. Unfortunately, he followed with another missed cut at Quail Hollow, then another missed cut at THE PLAYERS (shooting 78 on Thursday). There was no reason to believe he would be making your fantasy roster this season.

Since that time Goydos has been on fire. He finished in third place at the Texas Open, shooting 63-65 to open before 69-69 on the weekend opened a window just enough for Zach Johnson to steal his glory. After another missed cut at the Crowne Plaza Goydos surged again, finishing in fourth place at the St. Jude (72-64-64-68) followed by an outstanding second-place finish at last week's Travelers Championship (63-68-63-67).

He's throwing low numbers on every board he sees, and while the wheels may eventually fall off, it's hard to deny Goydos a place as one of the more intriguing fantasy commodities on the PGA today.

~ Cold Feet ~

Justin Rose
We keep waiting. We think it's coming. We got that quick and powerful flash when he was a teenager and we've waited anxiously since. We excused the failures of recent seasons coming into 2009 figuring the birth of his first born would settle him into the profession and into life. Now, with more than a few PGA tourneys under his belt, it appears Rose is destined to be the man that never was.

Early in the season it appeared he would be hanging tight. There weren't any top performances - T20 at the WGC CA Championship, T30 at the Arnold Palmer, T20 at The Masters - but those cards showed potential. It seems Rose was working his way back to prominence on the PGA and might finally make the leap we've waited so long to witness.

Instead, he's gone south once again. Over his last seven starts he has suffered five missed cuts, including three consecutive weekends missed coming into this week's AT&T National. He sandwiched a T22 at THE PLAYERS and a T34 at the Crowne Plaza in there, but the rest of the slate has been a debacle. Last week we held Rose high as a player to target at the Travelers Championship as the TPC River Highlands is normally a course he dominates. His scores of 68 and 70 may not have been an eye sore, but they failed to qualify Rose for the weekend and fell well short of the numbers he's posted on this track over recent seasons.

At this point, there is no reason to throw a bone of hope his way. He's too far gone to reach.

Official World Golf Rankings

RANK / PLAYER / PTS AVG
1 Tiger Woods 10.28
2 Phil Mickelson 8.44
3 Paul Casey 6.91
4 Kenny Perry 6.42
5 Sergio Garcia 6.19
6 Henrik Stenson 5.96
7 Geoff Ogilvy 5.93
8 Steve Stricker 5.34
9 Jim Furyk 4.98
10 Vijay Singh 4.92
11 Padraig Harrington 4.64
12 Camilo Villegas 4.60
13 Sean O'Hair 4.49
14 Robert Karlsson 4.27
15 Anthony Kim 3.93
16 Ian Poulter 3.83
17 Lucas Glover 3.80
18 Rory McIlroy 3.76
19 Lee Westwood 3.62
20 Ross Fisher 3.58
21 Ernie Els 3.56
22 Zach Johnson 3.55
23 Retief Goosen 3.47
24 Mike Weir 3.46
25 David Toms 3.25

PGA Money Leaders

PLACE / PLAYER / MONEY
1 Kenny Perry $3,892,241
2 Phil Mickelson $3,810,561
3 Tiger Woods $3,480,163
4 Zach Johnson $3,395,441
5 Geoff Ogilvy $3,346,441
6 Steve Stricker $3,193,458
7 Sean O'Hair $3,123,964
8 Lucas Glover $2,784,053
9 Brian Gay $2,782,235
10 Nick Watney $2,587,386
11 Paul Casey $2,560,610
12 David Toms $2,553,115
13 Rory Sabbatini $2,419,619
14 Jim Furyk $2,195,007
15 Dustin Johnson $2,116,595
16 Ian Poulter $1,965,116
17 Retief Goosen $1,910,768
18 Kevin Na $1,890,219
19 Angel Cabrera $1,713,196
20 Tim Clark $1,707,776
21 Mike Weir $1,675,329
22 Brian Davis $1,609,951
23 Charley Hoffman $1,545,078
24 Jerry Kelly $1,540,497
25 Hunter Mahan $1,501,719

FedEx Cup Point Standings

PLAYER / FEDEX POINT
Kenny Perry 1,874
Zach Johnson 1,662
Phil Mickelson 1,616
Tiger Woods 1,551
Steve Stricker 1,543
Geoff Ogilvy 1,533
Brian Gay 1,510
Sean O'Hair 1,434
Lucas Glover 1,421
Nick Watney 1,289
David Toms 1,272
Paul Casey 1,139
Rory Sabbatini 1,115
Dustin Johnson 1,038
Jim Furyk 1,001
Retief Goosen 992
Charley Hoffman 889
Tim Clark 884
Kevin Na 870
Mike Weir 826
Steve Marino 806
Ian Poulter 801
Hunter Mahan 798
Charles Howell III 795
Luke Donald 791