Cup Preview: Coke Zero 400 Powered by Coca-Cola

June 29, 2009 2:05pm CDT

As a racing fan, it doesn't get much better than three-wide racing under the light at Daytona International Speedway. As a fantasy owner, it doesn't get much scarier. The fantasy nightmare that is restrictor-plate racing is back for round three just in time for the final weeks of the Circuit 1 season. Every fantasy owner is just a "Big One" away from a potential move up or down the standings, and unfortunately, there is no strategy that is guaranteed to prevent a fantasy disaster. With the field bunched up all night long, there is going to be a wreck or two. Your fantasy drivers or either going to avoid the carnage or be caught up in it, and there is nothing you can do.

Last year, Kyle Busch survived a wild green-white-checkered finish to edge Carl Edwards for the victory. NASCAR officials had to go back and look at replays to see which driver was ahead at the time the caution flag flew before declaring Busch the winner. The victory was even more impressive considering that three Roush Fenway Racing cars were in the top five and attempting to gang up and get by Busch. Dale Jr. led the most laps in this race last season but was shuffled from the top spot late and could never recover. The casualties of the night included Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Jeff Burton, Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson. Tony Stewart was battling the flu had to turn his car over to J.J. Yeley in the middle of the race.

Rain put an end to this season's Daytona 500 before things could really get wild, but don't tell that to Kyle Busch. Inevitably, the success of each and every fantasy owner is going to be determined in the closing laps. Nearly every position on the track can change hands each lap, and until each driver crosses the finish line, nothing is a certainty. A fantasy owner can have all eight of their drivers enter Turn 3 inside the top 10 on the final lap and end up without a single top-10 finisher. Daytona is unpredictable. Daytona is exciting. Daytona is nerve wracking. Daytona is the perfect track to have near the end of Circuit 1.

The Favorites

A win in the Daytona 500 has always been just out of reach, but Tony Stewart has excelled under the lights. He won this event in 2005 and repeated in '06 has eight finishes of eighth or better in his last 11 starts at Daytona. If Stewart's car is in one piece at the end of the race, it is a safe bet that he will be running near the front.

His shot at winning the Daytona 500 came to an abrupt end, but Kyle Busch made it clear that he had the dominant car. He is also the defending winner of this event and has three top fives in his last four starts at Daytona. It took Busch a while to figure out to survive this plate races, but he has emerged as one of the best.

Kyle's older brother isn't too shabby here either. In fact, Kurt Busch has four straight top 10s at Daytona, including three top fives. Busch has six top fives and seven top 10s in his last 10 starts at the famed speedway, making him one of the most consistent drivers during that stretch.

Anytime the Cup Series head to a superspeedway, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has a shot at winning. He isn't as unbeatable as he used to be, but he still spends a lot of time at or near the front of the pack. Junior has seven top 10s in his last 12 starts at the track, and no driver with as many starts has a better finishing average than his 14.3 mark.

The Dark Horses

Narrowly winning the Daytona 500 is just one of Kevin Harvick's strong runs at the 2.5-mile track recently. He has six top 15s in his last seven starts, including a runner-up finish in the 500 earlier this year. One exception to the RCR slump this season has been the restrictor-plate tracks.

Harvick's teammate Clint Bowyer owns the best finishing average among active drivers at Daytona with an 11.1 mark. The fact that no driver has an average of better than 10.0 should tell owners all they need to know about how rough this weekend could be, and it should also tell them how consistent Bowyer has been. In seven starts, he has five top 10s and has never finished worse than 24th.

While he might be absolutely terrible pretty much everywhere else right now, David Ragan knows how to get to the front at Daytona. His sixth-place finish in the season opener remains his only top 10 of the season and is one of three top-six finishes in five starts at the track. Ragan has finished 12th or better in four of his five starts, and his 14.0 finishing average ranks him only behind Bowyer.

The Sleepers

Don't think that Marcos Ambrose is just a road racer. He finished 17th in his first ever start at Daytona earlier this season and followed that up with a fourth-place finish at Talladega. Road racing and restrictor-plate racing have nothing in common other than Ambrose does pretty well at both.

If the rain would have come a few laps earlier, Elliott Sadler would have won the Daytona 500 this season. Instead, he settled for a fifth-place finish, which was his fifth top six in his last seven starts at the track. His other two finishes during that stretch are outside the top 30, but when Sadler runs well at Daytona, he runs very well.

AJ Allmendinger's third-place run in the 500 to open the season helped him secure sponsorship and a contract extension with Richard Petty Motorsports. His performance has tailed off as the season has progressed, but he certainly looked good at Daytona the first time around. Allmendinger has to first race his way into the 500 through his qualifying race.

Struggling Drivers


The Roush Fenway Racing duo of Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle has been hit or miss at Daytona. Edwards has two top fives in his past four starts, but those finishes are his only top-10 runs in nine career starts. Biffle won his first career Cup race at the track but has seven finishes of 25th or worse as well. Edwards and Biffle have finishing averages of 21.4 and 22.5, respectively.

In seven starts, Denny Hamlin has never cracked the top 15 at Daytona. His best career finish is 17th, and his finishing average is a dismal 26.7. Hamlin always has the same problem at every plate event. He has car capable of pushing anyone to the lead, but his own car just can't stay there.

Rookies Joey Logano and Scott Speed had a rough introduction to Daytona earlier this year. Logano wrecked within the first 10 laps on his way to a last-place finish while Speed finished 35th. Logano rebounded with a top 10 at Talladega while Speed is struggling to make races. Superspeedway racing is tough on every driver, especially inexperienced rookies.