Comebacks and Disappointments – SE Division

June 25, 2009 3:30pm CDT

It's already time to start looking ahead to the next fantasy hockey season despite the fact the '08-'09 regular season feels like it just ended. But as we say around Fanball: "It's never too early to start preparing for next year." We look ahead to the '09-'10 season and predict who we think will spring back from a poor '08-'09 and who we think will fall short of expectations.

Part 1 - Atlantic Division
Part 2 - Northeast Division

Washington Capitals
Comeback Kid
Tom Poti skated in 52 games and recorded just 13 points in 2008-09. Thirteen points marked a career-low in points while his 52 games played were also a career-low. Poti set a career-low in PIM and shots as well registering 28 minutes in the box and just 48 shots fired on net. His assist total also took a dive too as he finished with a meager 10 on the year, particularly disappointing consider that prior to 2008-09 he had finished with 20 or more assists in seven of his past eight seasons. Poti stated that the problem in 2008-09 was that he kept coming back from injuries too quickly and that he never gave himself time to heal completely. However, this might not be entirely true as Poti still logged a wealth of time on the ice, including leading the team in average short-handed minutes played per game (4:22), which makes the fantasy owner wonder where his offense went and if he really was hurt since he still was performing defensively. Looking ahead, Poti will likely improve on his 2008-09 totals substantially, but expecting him to return to 40-plus points like he posted in 2006-07 might be farfetched.

Likely to Disappoint
The casual fan might look at Jose Theodore and his 32-17-5 record from 2008-09 and see a solid option in net to draft for the 2009-10 season. However, buyers should beware as Theodore's stats are deceiving. Add in his performance in the playoffs, and he might have cost himself a hunk of playing time, if not the number one job heading into 2009-10. Simeon Varlamov replaced Theodore in the playoffs an performed well (2.53 GAA, .918 save percentage) making it uncertain if there will be a number one goalie in Washington or whether the two will split time in the coming season (Brent Johnson is still in the picture which makes things even cloudier). Theodore's win/loss record was very good in 2008-09, however he was the beneficiary of a powerful Washington offense that bailed out some of his poor performances. His GAA grew to 2.87 in 2008-09 as compared to the 2.44 mark he posted in 2007-08, and his save percentage dropped from .910 to .900 and he finished the season with just two shutouts. With the uncertainty that is the Washington Capitals' goalie situation, and the down year Theodore had in 2008-09, Jose is unlikely to be a solid, reliable starting netminder in 2009-10.


Carolina Hurricanes
Comeback Kid
Erik Cole is a name to remember here, though there are many caveats. First off, it is unclear if he will be back with the Hurricanes for the coming season as he and the team continue to come to terms on a contract that both are comfortable with. Secondly, though he scored 15 points in 17 games after returning to the 'Canes, he wasn't very productive with the Oilers recording just 27 points in 63 games. The resulting total of 18 goals was a four year low, and his total of 42 points was the first time in four seasons that he didn't record at least 51 points in a season. Cole also basically disappeared in the playoffs with only five assists, that's right he didn't score a single game in 18 playoff games, so even the pairing with high scoring centerman Eric Staal wasn't the tonic he needed The skills are still there, but questions abound with this left winger who may need yet another chance of scenery to find his lost offensive touch.

Likely to Disappoint
Captain Rod Brind'Amour was a disappointment in 2008-09 and is likely to repeat as a major disappointment in Carolina again in 2009-10 if expectations are too high. His career appears to be on the decline after finishing the past two seasons with just 51 points - well down from his 2007-08 when he finished with 82. He ended the 2008-09 season with 16 goals which is the third straight year his goal totals have dropped - 31 in '05-'06, 26 in '06-'07, 19 in '07-'08 and this past years 16. The lack of production found Brind'Amour moved to the fourth line for the Hurricanes, which might be a more permanent home for the center for the remainder of his career. Another alarming factor to note is that Brind'Amour finished with his worst plus/minus of his career in 2008-09 with a (-23). He also finished with 135 shots on goal which was his lowest total since 2002-03. Brind'Amour is likely to continue to decline as his age plays a larger factor each season for the soon to be 39 year old centerman.


Florida Panthers
Comeback Kid
The Panthers hope to finally see a return on the six-year contract they gave right winger Rostislav Olesz. Olesz skated in only 37 games in 2008-09 thanks to a sports hernia. Olesz failed to light the lamp the entire month prior to his injury and finished the year with four goals and five assists. Before the 2008-09 season, Olesz increased his goal total the past two years moving from eight, to 11 to 14, before his injured plagued '08-'09. His production on the power-play has also improved going from one power-play point in '05-'06, to three in '06-'07 and then to his career-high of nine power-play points in '07-'08. The Panthers have asked the left wing to bulk up some over the summer and become a larger, stronger power forward (he is currently listed at 6'1", 215 lbs). If he is able to gain some size and power, as well as stay healthy for an entire year, Olesz likely will improve on his totals from his healthy season in 2007-08 (14g, 12a).

Likely to Disappoint
Expecting to lose a player of Jay Bouwmeester's quality to free agency over the summer is disappointing enough for Panther fans, but it is unlikely to be the only disappointing story relating to the 2009-10 season. 35-year-old Cory Stillman lost a step in his offensive production in 2008-09 which might be a trend that continues in 2009-10. Stillman lit the lamp 17 times in his first year with the Panthers and finished with a total of 49 points. Prior to this past season he had scored 20 or more times in five of the six seasons since the 2001-02 campaign. Florida has brought in Steve Reinprecht and is looking for him to distribute the puck to help boost the Panther offense, which might have a positive impact on Stillman if the two line up together as expected. However, age is starting to become bigger concern and Stillman likely will not be able to improve substantially on his 2008-09 season no matter who he likes up with.


Atlanta Thrashers
Comeback Kid
Kari Lehtonen missed the final month of the 2008-09 season which added to his injury riddled start to his career. Kari appeared in 68 contests in 2006-07 but has failed to appear in more than 48 games the past two years. He is a frustrating choice for fantasy owners for he is strong in net when healthy, as he showed in 2006-07 finishing with 34 wins and a 2.79 GAA, but he struggles to stay healthy for an entire season and his potential has therefore gone untapped. If the injuries subside Lehtonen should start well more than 44 games as he did in 2008-09, and his GAA should see an improvement from his career worst 3.06 number (career 2.87). However, Lehtonen might just be a guy that falls into the category of someone that simply can not put all the pieces together playing behind an often porous defense. The Thrashers fell back on Johan Hedberg and Ondrej Pavelec to fill in for Lehtonen while he was injured, but the two struggled and combined for just 18 wins in 38 starts. The number one job is still firmly in Lehtonen's hands, and 2009-10 should be the year he stays healthy and returns between the pipes for more than 55 games for the Thrashers.

Likely to Disappoint
Todd White finished with a career-high of 73 points in 2008-09, 36 more points than he tallied in the 2007-08 season. White's previous career-high in points occurred back in 2002-03 when he accumulated 60 points, but then failed to contribute more than 44 points in any season since until his 73 point year in 2008-09 (that's what skating with Ilya Kovalchuk can do for you). White's boost in production did not come in the goal scoring department but rather him setting up others as he set a career-high in assists with 51. White's first two seasons in Atlanta are night and day, and make it difficult to project his value in 2009-10. As a Thrasher he has yet to finish with a positive plus/minus and he has yet to shoot more than 150 times, two facts to keep in mind for poolies. Considering White averaged 26 assists per season the six years prior to his 51 in 2008-09, it makes his standout year look more like a fluke than the norm, though again he never skated with someone nearly as talented as Ilya. White likely won't finish 2009-10 with higher marks than 2008-09, but more likely will finish with a total that falls somewhere between his 37 point campaign in 2007-08 and his career-best 73 points in 2008-09.


Tampa Bay Lightning
Comeback Kid
Vaclav Prospal is a total mystery, and don't let any pundits tell you otherwise. Normally we try to discern trends based on empirical data, and though there are numbers to back up what we are about to say, we must also throw the caveat out there that there is really no logical reason it makes sense. Basically, it just is what it is, so if that is good enough for you, then Prospal should be looked at as a player who will greatly increase his production in the upcoming season. Here are his point totals the past seven seasons.

55, 79, 54, 80, 55, 71 and 45

Like we said we cannot explain it, but the pattern surely exists. Are you willing to bet on one more go round from of top flight production from this winger, or will his luck finally run out at age 34?

Likely to Disappoint
Mike Smith has a wealth of talent in net but his fantasy value will likely suffer in 2009-10 as he continues to battle health problems while backstopping a team that is struggling to remember how to win games. Brought in from Dallas in the Brad Richards trade in 2007-08, Smith started 40 games for the Lightning in 2008-09 and despite putting up a very good 2.62 GAA and .916 save percentage, he won just 14 games. Tampa Bay finished second worst in the NHL in 2008-09 and it likely would have been much worse if it was not for Smith. Another big concern heading into 2009-10 outside of whether Tampa Bay will win more games, is whether Smith can fully recover from a concussion he suffered during the 2008-09 season. Roughly five months have passed since his last start, and he is still yet to return to the ice. Tampa Bay expects him to return to the ice in mid-July, but a lingering injury such as a concussion is one that is sure to make fantasy owners nervous and might cause Smith to be a disappointment in 2009-10.