Comebacks and Disappointments - Northeast Division

June 18, 2009 12:10pm CDT

It's already time to start looking ahead to the next fantasy hockey season despite the fact the '08-'09 regular season feels like it just ended. But as we say around Fanball, "It's never too early to start preparing for next year." We look ahead to the '09-'10 season and predict who we think will spring back from a poor '08-'09 and who we think will fall short of expectations.

Part 1 - Atlantic Division

Part 2 - Northeast Division

Boston Bruins

Comeback Kid

Things look promising for young defender Matt Hunwick. In his second season in the NHL, he contributed 27 points in just 53 games for the Bruins. He emerged as a productive option from the defense but his season ended in the first round of the playoffs as he suffered a ruptured spleen. He has been training during the summer and looks to return to full health well before the start of the '09-'10 season. Prior to coming up to the NHL level, Hunwick has proven he can be a productive scoring defender. In his four years at the University of Michigan, Hunwick tallied 97 points which gave him an average of 24 points each year. He further proved this average in one year in the AHL where he chipped in 23 points for the Providence Bruins. Hunwick looks to improve on his solid start in the NHL and skate in more than 53 games this season which should help his overall production.

Likely to Disappoint
David Krejci finished second on the Bruins in scoring, finishing with 22 goals and 73 points as well as a +37 which led the NHL. Krejci skated in all of the 82 regular season games for Boston in 2008-09, which is a feat he will not repeat in 2009-10. He is scheduled to miss the start of the '09-'10 season due to hip surgery. There is no timetable as to when Krejci will be back for the Bruins and it is unclear how effective he will be following the surgery as he tries to return to 100 percent. Krejci improved drastically from the '07-'08 season to the '08-'09 season with 0.89 points-per-game in '08-'09 as compared to a lowly 0.48 points-per-game in '07-'08. On top of that, he more than doubled his production and improved his plus/minus from a (-3) to a +37 between the two seasons. Missed time, potential of a lingering injury, and the unlikelihood that Krejci can match or best his plus/minus or double his average points-per-game as he did in '08-'09 make the Boston center a disappointment in '09-'10.

Montreal Canadiens

Comeback Kid
Carey Price disappointed in his second season in the NHL as his numbers took a dive compared to the ones he put up in his rookie campaign. Price's shaky year culminated with an ugly second half collapse that both Price and the Canadiens will look to put behind them moving into '09-'10. Price lost 26 contests in '08-'09 while only winning 23 and his GAA grew from a 2.56 in '07-'08 to a 2.83 in '08-'09 which included a frightful 3.37 GAA in the second half. The Montreal front office already has made it clear that goaltending coach Rollie Melanson was the factor behind Price's second half tumble, and he has been let go heading into '09-'10. Whether or not Melanson deserves the blame is yet to be seen, but Price should rebound in '09-'10 assuming he can balance his performances between the first and second half and finish with numbers that more closely resemble those he put up in '07-'08.

Likely to Disappoint
An 84-point season in '07-'08 looks to be the exception rather than the rule for Alexei Kovalev. The Canadiens' forward still put together a solid year in '08-'09, but some fantasy owners may rank the right winger too high thanks to his '07-'08 where he recorded 35 goals and 84 points. The 36-year-old veteran has skated in 19 seasons and has only recorded more than 66 points three times in his career. In his past eight seasons, Kovalev has had a positive plus/minus only twice. Entering his 20th season in the NHL, Kovalev has been offered a year long contract as well as the captaincy from Montreal. Some hockey fans seem to believe Kovalev is still the winger he was back in '00-'01 with Pittsburgh where he scored 44 goals and finished with 95 points on a team that also included superstars Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr. Those days for Kovalev look like a distant memory as now he likely will be a solid producing forward but he will not live up to the expectations of those that still believe he is an elite winger.

Buffalo Sabres

Comeback Kid
Jochen Hecht was one of the most disappointing stories for Buffalo in '08-'09 as he only scored 12 goals and finished with 27 points and a (-9). The marks of 12 goals and 27 points is the fewest Hecht has scored since the '02-'03 season where he only skated in 49 games. The '08-'09 season marked Hecht's first full season with a negative plus/minus rating in his nine NHL seasons. Hecht's number of shots and his shooting percentage all were at their lowest mark in five years. He has scored 40 points or more in six of his last eight seasons which proves he is usually a productive center. Hecht will look to pick his game up in '09-'10 and his numbers should more closely resemble what he has done throughout his career rather than the down year he had in '08-'09.

Likely to Disappoint
Defensemen Jaroslav Spacek had a great year in '08-'09 finishing with 45 points which tied his career-high. However, looking at his career trends, it seems unlikely that Spacek will be able to duplicate his production in '09-'10. In his 13 seasons, he has recorded over 40 points only twice and more than 130 shots on goal only twice. Spacek reached 45 points in '02-'03 but it took him six years to achieve another 40-point year. His career resembles a roller coaster, with ups and downs and a lack of true consistency. After Spacek's 45-point season in '02-'03, he failed to contribute more than 24 points the next four seasons. If this pattern holds true, Spacek is due for a fall off in production as his career indicates he struggles to put two great seasons together back-to-back.

Ottawa Senators

Comeback Kid
Jason Spezza finished '08-'09 with 73 points which was 19 points less than his '07'-08 total. The Senators' center still rattled off 246 shots which was a career-high, though his shooting percentage dropped to .131 percent which marked the third-straight season it has dropped. Despite his shooting percentage dropping, Spezza still scored 32 goals which marked his third season in a row of scoring 32 or more. Spezza's plus/minus in '08-'09 was a career-low for the center as he finished with a (-14) as compared to the +26 he enjoyed just one year prior - a difference of 40 points. He should see his shooting percentage more closely resemble his career mark of .151 percent which will help his point totals, though the apparently impending trade of long time linemate Dany Heatley (see below) could put a crimp in his ability to return to the 87-point total that he reached for three-straight seasons prior to last year.

Likely to Disappoint
Dany Heatley was a huge disappointment in '08-'09 and already has been the biggest disappointment for the Senators without the '09-'10 season even starting. Heatley has demanded a trade from Ottawa and has left the Senators in an awkward position of trying to deal him and his $37.5 million he is owed over the next five years. Heatley has seen his goal totals and point totals decline the past three seasons but he still put up 39 goals in '08-'09. Though Heatley will be traded away over the summer to a new team, he still makes the list due to the pressure and tension he has placed on Ottawa as they look to not only deal the forward but also find a means to replace the production he had given them. The Heatley saga aside, Ottawa still relies on 36-year-old Daniel Alfredsson to lead their offense as he did in '08-'09 with 74 points. The aging right wing is years removed from '05'-06 when he tallied 103 points and his age is bound to catch up with him at some point and continue to slow his production.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Comeback Kid
Jason Blake frustrated fantasy owner's that hoped he could return to the 40-goal plateau he reached in '06-'07. Blake finished his streaky '08-'09 season with 25 goals which was 10 more than he scored in '07-'08 despite the fact he shot 30 fewer times and played in four fewer games. Blake made positive strides in '08-'09 and improved in goals (15 to 25), assists (37 to 38), points (52 to 63), plus/minus (-4 to -2), PIM (28 to 40), power-play points (12 to 18) and shooting percentage (.045 to .083) when compared to '07-'08. Blake found his momentum in the second half, scoring 32 points in only 35 games. Despite his sometimes streaky scoring, Blake loves to shoot the puck and has shot 300 or more times in each of the past four seasons. There is a lot to be optimistic about with Blake as he looks to build off of his second half and improve again in '09-'10.

Likely to Disappoint
Pavel Kubina finished '08-'09 with 40 points, giving him two back-to-back 40-point seasons. However, there were a few drop-offs in production that should be noted when Kubina's '08-'09 is compared to his '07'-08. Though he reached 40 points for a second-straight year, it took him 10 more games to do it in '08-'09 as well as 48 more shots. His plus/minus suffered the most, falling from a +5 to a (-15). Fellow defenseman Tomas Kaberle only skated in 57 games which likely gave Kubina more scoring as well as more shooting opportunities, especially on the power play. Prior to '08-'09 and '07-'08 Kubina had never recorded a 40-point year in nine seasons. His production has been up the past two seasons, but it seems unlikely he will improve upon and may even struggle to repeat his 40-point performance based on the trends of his other statistics.