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David Rogers

Comebacks and Disappointments - Atlantic Division

June 11, 2009 11:10am CDT

It's already time to start looking ahead to the next fantasy hockey season despite the fact the '08-'09 regular season feels like it just ended. But as we say around Fanball, "It's never too early to start preparing for next year." We look ahead to the 2009-10 season and predict who we think will spring back from a poor '08-'09 and who we think will fall short of expectations.

Part 1 - Atlantic Division

New Jersey Devils

Comeback Kid
One of the biggest disappointments in New Jersey this season was the newly signed Brian Rolston. Suffering a high ankle sprain just four games into the season, Rolston never appeared to regain his form and failed to be a consistent source of production regardless of where he played on the ice. Rolston signed a four-year deal in the offseason and carried big expectations, yet failed to contribute consistently. New Jersey tried him at all three of the forward positions but this failed to jumpstart Rolston's scoring touch. Rolston only contributed 32 points in '08-'09, a far cry from his usual standards where he has tallied 58 points or better in six of the past seven years. Assuming he has no further flair ups or setbacks with injuries, Rolston surely will improve and regain his old form and along with it some decent production for fantasy owners. Rolston likely won't near his career-high 79 points that he set in the '05-'06 season, but given his track record he should substantially increase his point total of 32 from '08-'09.

Likely to Disappoint
All-Star quality seasons are usually tough to improve upon. Zach Parise had a remarkable '08-'09 finishing fifth in the NHL with 94 total points besting his previous high of 65. Parise's success could be attributed to the fact he fired 364 shots in '08-'09 as compared to the 266 he took in the '07-'08 season. However, a 94-point campaign places expectations on Parise awfully high heading into next season. Fans and fantasy owners are crossing their fingers in hopes he may find his way into 100-point territory despite the fact that no New Jersey player has ever reached the 100-point plateau. Parise will still be an elite fantasy star, but unfortunately he has set the bar very high for next season and anything short of spectacular will be labeled as disappointing. His stats will likely level off as he has improved his goal, assist, point, plus/minus, power=play goals and power-play points each season since his debut in '05-'06, and it is highly unlikely he will be able to accomplish this again in the '09-'10 season.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Sergei Gonchar should return to his pedestal as a top-10 defender next season.
Comeback Kid
High-scoring defensemenSergei Gonchar found his name amongst the top-10 defenders drafted in fantasy leagues this past season but unfortunately due to a dislocated shoulder, Gonchar failed to yield results worthy of his high draft position. Needing surgery to repair his dislocated shoulder, Gonchar only skated in 25 regular season games but was able to chip in 19 total points to help owners late in the fantasy season. Expectations were high as Gonchar put up 65 total points in the '07-'08 season and 67 in the '06-'07 season which placed him second amongst all defensemen in points each season. Gonchar stars on the first power-play unit alongside Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, which offers a bounty of point opportunities as he proved in his limited action in '08-'09 scoring five of his six goals on the power-play. The offensive-minded Gonchar likely will see his totals improve a great deal and earn his spot as one of the top-10 defensemen drafted in '09-'10.

Likely to Disappoint
Bill Guerin joined the Penguins deep into the season coming over from the Islanders in a trade near the deadline. Guerin found success immediately and collected 12 points over 17 games with Pittsburgh. During an eight-game span in the middle of May, a streaking Guerin scored five times over eight games giving the Penguins a late-season spark. Before the trade Guerin barely registered on the fantasy radar as he only accumulated 36 points and a (-15) over 61 contests for the Islanders. His increase in production can be attributed to playing on the same line as Sidney Crosby who finished second in the NHL in assists and third in overall total points. However, Guerin can become a free agent this summer if Pittsburgh chooses not to retain him and he loses value if he is no longer on Crosby's line. The best case scenario is that the Penguins decide to keep the veteran on their roster, but even then he should not be looked to as a reliable option from the right side of the ice. He has his hot streaks such as the one recently in the middle of May, but he has not registered over 47 points in a year since the '03-'04 season and expecting more than that is unrealistic.

Philadelphia Flyers
Comeback Kid
Fantasy owners thought when they selected Danny Briere that they would receive a solid source of goals and assists from the center position. Instead, those owners were rewarded with countless headaches, endless frustration and likely ended up severing ties with Briere well before the season ended. Injuries wrecked havoc on Briere's year as he skated in just two games in November, one in December, and was absent entirely in the months of January and February. However, the final line shows why Briere was selected early in drafts as he scored 11 goals and added 14 assists in just 29 contests. If his injury woes subside, Briere should resume his role as a reliable option at center as he has scored 25 or more goals in each of the past four seasons prior to '08-'09.

Likely to Disappoint
Jeff Carter was a goal-scoring machine in '08-'09 finishing with a career-high 46 goals which led the Philadelphia Flyers and placed him second in all the NHL. He finished with a career-high in total points with 84 which was 31 more than his previous high. So why does he find himself on this list? Simply put, Carter had a season in '08-'09 that left him with very little room to improve unless he dishes the puck around more. He ranked fourth in shots with 342 and was rewarded with 13.5 percent of them finding the back of the net. However, for Carter to step his game up to the next level and reach the 100-point level he must learn to distribute the puck more to increase his rather low assist total of 38. A trend to pay attention to is the fact Carter's PIM line has increased the past four seasons straight: 40 in '05-'06, 48 in '06-'07, 55 in '07-'08 and 68 in '08-'09. Though his scoring totals have yet to be hindered by this, if Carter spends more time in the box in the '09-'10 season, expect his goal totals to decline.

New York Rangers

Comeback Kid
Wade Redden was brought into New York from Ottawa prior to the '08-'09 season with an enormous six-year contract for $39 million. This pricey deal for the defenseman caused groans and confusion by some in New York and as the season panned out, Redden did nothing to ease any minds. Redden had his statistically worst season since '98-'99 registering only three goals and 23 assists for a total of 26 points in 81 games. He finished with a (-5) which was his first negative plus/minus in a season since '99-'00. The major area of concern about Redden was he came in to give the Ranger power play more bite, but he only had two power-play goals and six power-play assists. In his 11 seasons in Ottawa, Redden was a consistent force from the blue line scoring 10 goals or more five times and finishing with a plus/minus of +22 or better for five-straight years. His transition to New York after spending 11 years with Ottawa may explain his drop off in production as he has yet to fully learn the new system he is playing in. Once Redden adjusts to his new surroundings his numbers should improve and more closely resemble his career averages which should make his hefty paycheck a little easier to swallow for Ranger fans.

Likely to Disappoint
Another defenseman for New York, Paul Mara has struggled to find the success he enjoyed while in Phoenix and has been unable to replicate it in one year with Boston or in his three years thus far with the Rangers. Mara has sunk into mediocrity his past four seasons, failing to record more than 21 points or more than five goals in a season. The past four years are far from the '03-'04 season where he contributed 42 points or from the '05-'06 season where he tallied 47 points. Mara has ran into injury problems often after exiting Phoenix following the '05-'06 season, as he has only played more than 70 games once since his departure. However, though his production has dropped off, his penalty minutes have increased since leaving the Coyotes. Mara appears to be a player gradually changing identities, switching from a productive source of points from the blue line into a modest contributor that can rack up some penalty minutes. Mara might not be a disappointment as long as those drafting him know his role is shifting and he will likely increase his PIM numbers rather than his point numbers in '09-'10.

New York Islanders

Comeback Kid
Predicting a fantasy noteworthy player to talk about on the worst team in the NHL is not an easy assignment. Thankfully, a major injury to the building block of the franchise in '08-'09 makes this an easy choice for the rebound pick in '09-'10. Rick DiPietro made only five appearances for the Islanders and only won one contest as he succumbed to a knee injury for most of the year. The team plans to build their future around DiPietro as he has shown his durability in net logging over 3,500 minutes three seasons in a row between '05-'06 and '07-'08. However, his knee injury has been a cause for concern, but so far it is not believed to be career threatening, but it likely will limit the number of starts he can make. Despite playing on the current worst team in the NHL, DiPietro has proven he can be a worthy fantasy option in net as he has a career save percentage over .900 percent and a GAA of 2.79. Until the Islanders complete their rebuilding project and create a formidable team, DiPietro's win-loss record will continue to suffer and not reach its full potential as he continues to keep the Islanders in games they should not be in. Currently, he is on track to make training camp prior to the '09-'10 but he will likely split more time as he continues to recover from injury.

Likely to Disappoint
The New York Islanders. The Islanders look nothing like the team that made the playoffs in '06-'07 as they finished dead last in the NHL with only 61 points in '08-'09. The team finished with a 26-47-9 record which marked their worst finish since the lockout in '04-'05. They finished second to last in total scoring and defenseman Mark Streit led the team finishing with 56 points, 15 more than any forward. The Islanders have a long way to go, but do have a plethora of draft picks in the 2009 draft including the first overall pick which does give hope to Islander fans for the future. They plan to continue to build around netminder Rick DiPietro, but this too raises concerns as DiPietro missed the majority of '08-'09 with a knee injury that could have lasting effects and might limit his playing time further. Due to his injury concerns, DiPietro receives special mention in the disappointment section as well (a conundrum considering that he is also listed as the "Comeback Kid"). The Islanders have placed all the weight on DiPietro to be the anchor of their team, but due to his injured knee and lack of a supporting cast, DiPietro likely will struggle to keep the team's head above water. Unless they improve their offense during the summer, The Islanders' overall plus/minus will be an eyesore for another year as they compiled a hideous (-292) in '08-'09. The Islanders' future looks brighter assuming they manage to draft well, but for the present the Islanders appear destined to dwell in the NHL's cellar and disappoint their fans yet again in '09-'10.

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