Fantasy Golf: Hot Topics

May 27, 2009 12:35pm CDT

~ Hot Topic of the Week ~

Redefining Value?

The world has fallen in love with fantasy sports, and no matter what game you choose as your source of fantasy entertainment, the name of the game is value. Identifying worthy candidates for fantasy employment, making sure the cost paid does not create unnecessary or unavoidable risk, seeking bargains that will enhance your efforts in other areas: all of this and more goes into the effort to seek value.

For fans of the PGA, this season may represent one of the more challenging and surprising campaigns we've endured in some time. In general, the goals are simple regardless of scoring system or structure. First, you need to target the right top-tier player of choice for the event at hand. From there, the rest of the roster can be filled in any number of ways, but the desire is the same. You want golfers that make cuts, you want them to finish as high as possible on the final leaderboards, and you want to achieve those goals as consistently as possible.

In the typical fantasy golf season, those top-tier commodities are known to all and rarely waiver from one year to the next. Names like Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, Vijay Singh... those are the players that have served fantasy golf owners well for much of the past decade. The secondary options can be found in various forms, but again, many of the same names are found among the final rankings from season to season: Jim Furyk, Ernie Els, Kenny Perry, Justin Leonard, Stewart Cink, Padraig Harrington, and others.

Now consider what we've witnessed thus far in 2009.

Tiger has returned from injury but has failed to make good on the trademark Sunday death march for the rest of the field. He has one win with top-10 finishes in four of the other five starts he's made, but he has yet to reach the pinnacle of domination we all expect.

Mickelson was well on pace to enjoy one of his best seasons to date, touting two wins earned against top fields along with a fifth-place finish at The Masters. Still, five '09 PGA starts have resulted in disaster for fantasy owners - missed cut at the FBR Open, T42 at the Buick, T55 at Pebble Beach, missed cut at the Houston Open, T55 at THE PLAYERS - and now he's out indefinitely as he supports his wife Amy in her fight against breast cancer.

Vijay has been worthless. He was forced into arthroscopic surgery to repair knee damage and has just one fantasy-worthy finish on the books (T9 at THE PLAYERS) through 11 PGA starts this season.

Sergio doesn't even play on the PGA any more. He's made just seven starts on this side of the pond and his best finish thus far - T13 at the Honda Classic - fails to rank as a bright spot for any fantasy owner that wagered in his direction.

Instead, the top commodities among the elite in golf this season have been Paul Casey, Geoff Ogilvy, Sean O'Hair, Zach Johnson, and Steve Stricker.

The first three were ranked among the intriguing young duffers on the rise, but none were proven commodities. Casey earned his first PGA win this season at the Houston Open. Ogilvy was down last season (in large part due to health complications during his wife's first pregnancy, a fact he kept hidden from the public) and hit '09 with more questions than answers. Now he has two wins and is clearly worthy of rank among the top golfers in the world. O'Hair has been in fire, coming off a devastating torn pectoral muscle suffered during practice rounds for last year's US Open. We believed his rise would come, but that setback should have delayed his arrival for some time. Instead, he stands today as a clear and present danger at every tourney he hits.

Johnson and Stricker are veterans long associated with competent play, but now both own outstanding consistency, two of the few capable of posting top-10 finishes at every tourney they hit. They stay active and rarely fall from grace.

The secondary ranks are engaged in a similar changing of the guard. Kenny Perry has carried his '08 momentum into this new season and should be considered a member of the elite. Leonard has finally gotten back on track after a horrific start. The rest of our list is comprised of names that have all fallen well short of expectation, and none are currently standing as undeniable options in PGA tourneys for your fantasy roster this season.

Instead, the secondary ranks have been seized by Charley Hoffman, Dustin Johnson, John Merrick, and the surprisingly efficient rookie Jeff Klauk. All of those players rank among the Tour's top-10 in cuts made and all but Klauk boast multiple top-10 finishes. You could reach further and add names like John Senden, Jason Dufner, John Mallinger, Steve Marino, and Jeff Overton.

It's a list full of grinders, golfers that range in age from the low 20s to the mid-40s, and none were on the short list of golfers to watch for fantasy owners this season. Dustin Johnson may have earned an asterisk in your preseason notes, a talented young golfer who has showcased a propensity for low scores against the best in the game, but the rest of those golfers weren't in your thoughts or on your fantasy radar.

It's been a crazy season, and it's forcing us to redefine value.

~ Hot Hand ~

John Mallinger
While Mallinger's resume might fail to impress at a distinctive level, it is hard to deny that his game is on the rise and fantasy owners would do themselves a favor in taking notes.

Start with the early weeks of the '09 season, where Mallinger was struggling to make a dent in the bank account. He suffered three missed cuts over his first four starts, adding T25 at the Bob Hope in between. That stretch was followed by four more disappointing finishes, going T33 at Pebble Beach, T41 at the Northern Trust Open, T42 at the Honda Classic, and T33 at the Puerto Rico Open. There was no reason to believe that this young grinder would find the motivation to get back in the hunt for improved gains on the Tour this season.

But start that motivation he did, beginning with a modest T27 at the Transitions Championship. That was followed by a sixth-place finish at the Houston Open. Then there was one more missed cut at the Verizon Heritage, but Mallinger regained face by finishing T34 at the Zurich Classic. His best performance yet came in the following week, finishing in third place at THE PLAYERS.

There was a minor slip to T47 the following week at the Texas Open, but last week at the Byron Nelson Mallinger emerged as a force of reckoning once again, finishing in a tie for sixth place at a very challenging TPC Four Seasons track.

If he can keep it going Mallinger could join our list of secondary options to consider on a weekly basis. He's got a hot hand going now and we'll see if he can carry that success forward.

~ Cold Feet ~

Stuart Appleby
We've been eyeing Appleby for some time, but a brief respite from an otherwise tragic start to the '09 season put us off the scent. That eighth-place finish at the Transitions Championship could have served as a launching board to bigger and better things for one of the world's most talented and accomplished duffers. Instead, things have gone from bad to worse and it now appears that fantasy owners should be wondering if that rise will ever be coming.

We first noted Appleby as a player of concern after missing two cuts and failing to register a top-50 finish over his first six PGA starts of the season. He was dismissed on the first day of match play competition at the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship, a tourney he tends to do well at, but that surge at the Transitions appeared to be a breakthrough for a golfer that desperately needed it.

Since then, Appleby has failed to rediscover his prowess on the golf course. He finished T52 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (shooting 80 on Saturday), followed by T31 at the Houston Open and T30 at The Masters. Now he enters the Crowne Plaza touting three consecutive missed cuts on his bag, having fallen before the weekend at the Quail Hollow Championship, THE PLAYERS, and the Byron Nelson.

Until he gets back on track and showcases a string of positive results, it would be wise to steer clear of this veteran Aussie duffer.

Official World Golf Rankings

RANK / PLAYER / PTS AVG
1 Tiger Woods 9.41
2 Phil Mickelson 8.23
3 Paul Casey 6.92
4 Sergio Garcia 6.55
5 Henrik Stenson 6.26
6 Geoff Ogilvy 6.19
7 Kenny Perry 5.79
8 Padraig Harrington 5.18
9 Vijay Singh 5.11
10 Camilo Villegas 4.79
11 Robert Karlsson 4.48
12 Sean O'Hair 4.44
13 Steve Stricker 4.40
14 Jim Furyk 4.33
15 Anthony Kim 3.95
16 Rory McIlroy 3.80
17 Lee Westwood 3.78
18 Ernie Els 3.75
19 Ian Poulter 3.69
20 Zach Johnson 3.61
21 Angel Cabrera 3.42
22 Ross Fisher 3.38
23 Mike Weir 3.37
24 Martin Kaymer 3.33
25 Luke Donald 3.30

PGA Money Leaders

PLACE / PLAYER / MONEY
1 Phil Mickelson $3,238,635
2 Geoff Ogilvy $3,155,529
3 Zach Johnson $3,130,921
4 Sean O'Hair $2,963,842
5 Kenny Perry $2,705,259
6 Nick Watney $2,497,253
7 Rory Sabbatini $2,388,973
8 Paul Casey $2,299,950
9 Tiger Woods $2,166,813
10 Dustin Johnson $1,987,970
11 Steve Stricker $1,960,236
12 Retief Goosen $1,755,992
13 Kevin Na $1,695,869
14 Angel Cabrera $1,690,695
15 Brian Gay $1,690,375
16 Ian Poulter $1,658,718
17 Brian Davis $1,579,306
18 Charley Hoffman $1,513,477
19 David Toms $1,490,155
20 John Rollins $1,438,313
21 Pat Perez $1,428,201
22 Jerry Kelly $1,425, 130
23 Charles Howell III $1,410,998
24 Y.E. Yang $1,361,738
25 Mike Weir $1,357,771

FedEx Cup Point Standings

PLAYER / FEDEX POINTS
Zach Johnson 1,525
Geoff Ogilvy 1,431
Phil Mickelson 1,377
Sean O'Hair 1,336
Kenny Perry 1,272
Nick Watney 1,236
Rory Sabbatini 1,081
Paul Casey 1,024
Dustin Johnson 956
Steve Stricker 956
Tiger Woods 949
Brian Gay 927
Retief Goosen 897
Charley Hoffman 846
Charles Howell III 795
Pat Perez 791
Angel Cabrera 772
Kevin Na 761
John Rollins 744
David Toms 741
Brian Davis 726
Lucas Glover 703
Y.E. Yang 699
Jerry Kelly 689
Luke Donald 682