Boom and Blunder: Starting Pitcher

March 20, 2009 12:15pm CDT

Given that players who either far exceeded or fell far short from their previous year's expectations often present the toughest cases for the next season's predictions, we'll take a look at one player that fell into each scenario last year. Continuing our gaze around the diamond, we'll take our second look at the mound.

BOOM

Jon Lester, Red Sox

2008 Preseason Outlook: Lester did not have had the hype that fellow Boston pitching prospect Clay Buchholz carried heading into last year, and you couldn't really blame the pundits. He had been handled with care over his first two seasons as he battled non-Hodgkins lymphoma, and while his 7-2 record in his 2006 rookie campaign was nice, the 4.76 ERA and 1.65 WHIP were not. He was a bit better his sophomore go-around, ending 4-0 with a 4.56 era and 1.46 WHIP. His strikeout numbers were not bad, but certainly not good enough to account for the fact that he issued a walk every other inning over his first two seasons (110 strikeouts and 74 walks in 144.1 innings pitched). There were also rumors that he could be included in a package along with others for an ace like Johan Santana, meaning Lester was in danger to lose the one real positive attribute he had going for him, that being the wins that came along with being part of Boston's starting rotation. All the reasons not to like Lester led to him dropping out of the top-60 at the position, often going undrafted in shallow to mid-level mixed leagues.

2008 Performance: At the beginning of 2008, Lester showed just why he may have went undrafted, and was almost surely dropped by the owners that did select him; he gave up four runs in four of his first six starts (two of which he failed to last five innings) and in those outings compiled a 1-2 record, 5.46 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, and awful 16:19 K:BB ratio. Lester did post a gem in his final April start and got the ship righted from there, being mostly effective over his next few outings and culminating in his two-walk, nine-strikeout no-hitter against Kansas City on May 19. While the rest of his season wasn't without a few bumps and bruises, his overall body of work was pretty superb from then on, as his 1.20 WHIP and sub-3.00 ERA after the All-Star break would indicate, to go along with a respectable 7.38 K/9 rate. Lester, who finished 16-6, was an even better 13-3 after the end of May.

2009 Forecast: The Red Sox just signed Lester to a five-year, $30 million contract extension, clearly comfortable with the lefty's elbow, shoulder, and overall medical condition, and convinced of his bright future with the organization; you should be too. Lester molded himself into one of the most dependable starters in the entire league following his rocky start last season. Having just turned 25, it's highly feasible to think the best has yet to come, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him take his game to an even higher level over the next year or two. Given that he'll always have a talented lineup to provide support, it wouldn't be selfish to expect a few more wins than the already fine 16 he posted last season. He doesn't seem like one that will alter his work ethic after being handed the financial security of his new contract and has already looked mostly effective in the spring thus far. Make sure this youngster does not slip to far out of the top-20 among starting pitchers, as he should post average strikeout numbers but be solid everywhere else across the board.

BLUNDER

Fausto Carmona, Indians

2008 Preseason Outlook: What Ricky Nolasco is as a fantasy commodity heading into this season, Carmona was heading into last. A complete unknown entering 2007 after being used as a starter, middle reliever, and even closer at times in 2006, Carmona secured a spot in the starting rotation in 2007 and proved more than worthy of the designation. Carmona surfaced on most owners' fantasy radars with a fine opening month in 2007 and was even better that May. While he struggled in June, Carmona flashed nothing short of utter dominance over the second half of the season, going 9-4 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.07 WHIP after the All-Star break. While his total of 137 strikeouts to go along with 61 walks in 215 innings was nothing to gloat about, fantasy owners seemed unfazed by those peripherals. He was just 24 years old heading into 2008 and appeared to form one of the league's top one-two punches with CC Sabathia, resulting in his ranking as a top-20 pitcher, often gone by the seventh round of typical drafts.

2008 Performance: Carmona's face-plant in 2008 was reminiscent of the snobby, upper-class girl walking down the sidewalk with high heels during the winter on an icy day in Wisconsin. He started off the season incredibly lucky to get by in his first 10 starts with a 4-2 record and 3.10 ERA, despite a 1.59 WHIP and awful 23:38 K:BB ratio before a hip injury sidelined him through the All-Star break. It turned out that he was better off on the bench for his fantasy owners, as he returned to kill teams' ERAs and title hopes, posting a 7.61 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 12 starts after the break. In the end, while his 8-7 record was certainly doable, his 5.44 ERA and 1.62 WHIP were unacceptable, and the fact that he fanned 58 batters while issuing 70 walks was a downright monstrosity.

2009 Forecast: Carmona seems to be getting by on the name recognition of his fantastic 2007, getting drafted around the top-50 among starting pitchers. Some owners clearly think he can at least come close to returning to his form of two years ago. There is reason to believe, however, that his 2007 campaign was a complete fluke and that Carmona will never again be anything more than a mediocre back of the rotation starter in the big leagues. Remember that his rookie season in 2006 was pretty awful, as he went 1-10 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, plus he never displayed anything more than average potential in his minor-league career. Sure, his 2007 was great, but even in his one great season, his K/9 rate was a lowly 5.73; regardless of whether or not you think he'll bounce back, there's no debating that he'll continue to post weak strikeout numbers. While Carmona has looked alright through his first four outings in spring training thus far, he still has just four strikeouts compared to five walks through 11 innings. In the end, you always have to worry about a guy that pulls through with one excellent season that was sandwiched between far from promising years on each end, and it'd probably be best to avoid Carmona completely, even as the later rounds of your draft approach.