Winter Meetings Review: Pitchers

December 10, 2009 1:24pm CST

Randy Wolf to Brewers
Wolf agreed to a three-year, $29.75 million deal to join a Brewers club that was in desperate need of some depth in the starting rotation (their starting staff posted a 5.37 ERA last season, the worst mark in the league). "It was a crazy offseason last year, especially with me. It made it really easy the way the Brewers came in very aggressive and made it really clear they wanted me there." The deal will become official once Wolf passes a physical (likely on Monday), and his nearly $30 million deal will be the third largest the franchise has ever given to a pitcher (Jeff Suppan's, gulp, 4-year, $42 million deal was the largest). Since the Dodgers did not offer the arbitration eligible pitcher arbitration, they will not receive compensatory draft picks for Wolf even though he was rated as a Type A free agent.

I previously gave my thoughts on the outlook for Wolf a few weeks back in Breaking Down: Randy Wolf, so I'd encourage everyone to give that piece a read to help them understand just who the Brewers brought in to be their #2 starter behind Yovani Gallardo.

Rich Harden to Rangers
It's not official, but it appears that the Rangers have landed a huge name by inking starting hurler Rich Harden to a one-year deal with an option for a second season. Harden's deal, reportedly worth $7.5 million with an option for $11.5 million in 2011, allows the club to replace the starter they lost when they dealt Kevin Millwood to the Orioles (you can read about that move below).

Harden is a simply dynamic hurler, potentially one of the 10 best in baseball, that is if he could just stay healthy long enough for anyone to get a true read on his output. Still, it cannot be argued though that when on the hill he has dominated the competition. Just take a gander at these data points.

* Amongst active hurlers who have made 100 starts, his BAA of .220 is third best, his 9.35 K/9 mark is fourth best, his ERA of 3.39 is 10th best as is his .633 winning percentage.

* Since the start of the 2008 season, Harden has 352 Ks in 289 innings, good for a K/9 mark of 10.96 is the best in baseball for any hurler who has tossed at least 275 innings.

Now the negatives.

* Though he has tossed 140-innings each of the past two years, he hasn't reached the 150-inning mark since 2004. As a result, he has averaged a mere 98 innings pitched the past five seasons. Heck, there are a few relievers each year that approach that mark.

* Though he is a veritable whiff machine, he continues to issue far too many free passes, and last year he was particularly poor at throwing strikes as he walked 4.28 batters per nine innings. When you strike out nearly 11 batters per nine innings and still post a K/BB mark of only 2.55, you certainly aren't doing something right.

* Though an outlier thanks to a career worst HR/F rate of 15 percent, Harden allowed 1.47 homers per nine innings. If he doesn't get that number under control he certainly doesn't figure to have much success pitching in Texas where his new home park is located.

This is an aggressive move and one that could pay off. At the same time the Rangers are taking on the risk that is Rich Harden, just as those that call out his name on draft day will be doing until the day he retires.


Rafael Soriano to Rays
This deal is hot off the presses. Soriano has been traded to the Rays who will avoid arbitration by signing the fireballing reliever to a one-year, $7 million deal pending a review of his extensive medical records.

Soriano, no longer needed with the signing of Billy Wagner in Atlanta, will look to continue the mojo he flashed last season with the Braves as he racked up 27 saves while posting a 2.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a flat out dominating K/9 mark of 12.13. When a hurler strikes out that many batters, everyone in the sport takes notice. But the issue has never been stuff with Soriano. After all, he owns a career 2.92 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 9.87 K/9 mark, numbers that would play in any leagues in the world. The issue is whether or not Soriano can keep his injury racked body on the field. Soriano has tossed at least 60 innings in three of the past four seasons, but at the same time he tossed just 14 inning in 2008 and pitched a grand total of 10.2 inning in 2004-05. That means, over the past six years, that Soriano has as many 60-inning season as he does seasons with less than 20-innings pitched (three each). Yeah, he comes with a huge question mark next to his name.

As for the Rays, good luck finding a more talented bullpen. In addition to Soriano, the Rays boast at least a trio of arms that any team would be happy to run out there in the 7-9 inning. Grant Baflour may have the best arm of the group, but consistency has eluded him (69 Ks but a 4.87 ERA in 67.1 innings). Dan Wheeler, the old man of the group, posted a scintillating 5.00 K/BB mark helping to lead to a 0.87 WHIP in his 57.2 innings. The lefty of the group, J.P. Howell, had seven victories, 17 saves, 79 Ks and a 2.84 ERA in 66.2 innings. Heck, even Randy Choate had a 1.07 WHIP last season in his 36.1 innings.

Soriano is clearly in the lead for saves, but with the way that the Rays employ their bullpen it wouldn't be surprising to see a handful of guys pick up five saves. At least they will have alternatives should Soriano's arm crap out.


Chris Ray to Rangers, Kevin Millwood to Orioles
An odd deal to say the least, that is until you realize that the Rangers covered themselves by bringing in Harden. Still, moving Millwood and sending along something like $8-9 million to help cover his $12 million salary certainly seems like a lot to give up for Ray.

Once thought of as a potentially dominating closer (he did save 33 games in 2006), Ray suffered an arm injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery which knocked him out for the 2008 season. He returned to the hill in 2009 and the results were discouraging as he posted an atrocious set of ratios: 7.27 ERA, 2.01 WHIP in 43.1 innings. There is some thought that this was merely a hiccup in his return to prominence, after all many hurlers struggle with their control in their first year back from Tommy John surgery, but still, it was a horrific performance. Slated to serve as the righty setup man for Frank Francisco, his addition might mean that the Rangers could shift Neftali Feliz or C.J. Wilson to the rotation full-time.

As for Millwood, he is what he is - a solid, veteran innings eater that usually keeps his team in the game. Yes, he was terrific at times last season as his 3.67 ERA would suggest, but there are plenty of reasons to be wary of a repeat. (1) His K/9 rate of 5.57 was a career worst, just about a batter and a half below his career mark. (3) His 3.22 BB/9 mark was well above his 2.78 career rate. (3) He allowed more than one homer per nine innings. (4) He was pretty darn lucky. For the first time in his career he had a line drive rate under 20 percent, and the result was a .279 BABIP, his lowest mark since his career season way back in 1999. (5) His left on base rate of 78.6 percent was the second best mark of his career and light years ahead of his career 71.5 percent mark. Camden Yards is a good hitters park, so be exceedingly cautious in your estimation of the outlook of Mr. Millwood in his new home.


Matt Lindstrom, Brandon Lyon to Astros
With Jose Valverde declining arbitration to hit the open market, the Astros needed to do something to address their vacant closers role (especially when Mr. Hawkins also moving along - you can read more about that below). First, they added Lindstrom in a deal with the Marlins which sent minor leaguers Robert Bono and Luis Bryan, along with a Jorge Jimenez (he could vie for the starting 3B spot) to the Fish. Lindstrom owns a power arm, his average fastball last season was 96 mph, but he was also on the shelf for about six weeks with an elbow issue. Apparently healthy, Lindstrom will attempt to lock down ninth inning duties after losing them to Leo Nunez last year in Florida (Matt was effective converting 15 of 17 save chances in '09). However, proceed with caution here. First off, when a guy throws 96 mph and "only" strikes out 7.42 batters per nine innings, a yellow flag is raised. Secondly, the guy often has no idea where he is tossing the ball as evidenced by his rather large 4.56 BB/9 mark. It's tough to be consistent with that level of free passes. Third, the club added another hurler who might be first in line for ninth inning duties.

Lyon was somehow able to convince the Astros that he was worth a three-year, $15 million deal. Make no mistake, Lyon was one of the top relievers on the market a year after posting a 2.86 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP as the top setup man in Detroit, but it's not like he has been an extremely effective late in games in his career with 54 saves and 23 blown saves. In addition, Lyon has ever profiled as a lights out reliever, and the reasons are numerous. First, his K/9 rate of 6.52 in'09 was merely big league average. Second, his 3.55 BB/9 mark was slightly below big league average. Third, his .229 BABIP was comically low for a man who owned a .305 career mark. In fact, he had never posted a mark below .287 in his eight year career, and its not like any reasonable person would conclude that a repeat of his 17 percent LD-rate is feasible given a 22 percent career mark. Fourth, his left on base rate of 80.8 percent will be nearly impossible to duplicate for a guy who owns a 71.4 percent career mark.

You'd have to think coming off his strong effort last season that Lyon will be the first choice to close over Lindstrom despite the fact that he doesn't posses nearly as dominating stuff and that he was seemingly quite lucky last season. Still, saves are about opportunity, and it would appear that first crack for those chances will go to Lyon, though you would be wise to also roster Lindstrom if you plan on going for an Astros' ninth inning specialist.


LaTroy Hawkins to Brewers
Hawkins joined the Brewers to protect leads handed off by newly acquired Randy Wolf for the sum of $7.5 million over two years. He will serve as the top bridge to venerable closer Trevor Hoffman.

Hawkins had a successful year for the Astros last season posting a 2.13 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 63.1 innings. He also spent some time filling in for injured closer Jose Valverde, and as a result he was able to post 11 saves, his highest total since 2004. Obviously with Hoffman on hand in Milwaukee Hawkins will be lucky to get more than a handful of saves in 2010.

Can Hawkins be a solid set up man? That seems reasonable to conclude. After all, he brought his BB/9 rate back down below three last year, all the way down to 2.27, and his K/9 rate remains major league average at 6.39 (slightly above his career mark of 5.96). He will have to work on keeping the ball in the yard, his 0.99 HR/9 mark was a tenth below his career rate. At the same time there are also a couple of notable concerns. First, his 24.5 percent line drive rate, despite being a career worst, still resulted in a .284 BABIP. Those two numbers don't make sense. Look for the BABIP to climb (.314 career) and the LD-rate to decrease (20.2 career). Secondly, his 90.9 percent LOB% is insanely high, a full 20 percent above his career mark. When that number regresses, and it will (bank on it), Hawkins will see his ERA rise, probably by at least a full run (his ERA has been below 3.40 only once in five years, and that was last season).