Three-team Blockbuster Breakdown

December 8, 2009 5:01pm CST

THE DEAL

Diamondbacks Receive: SP Edwin Jackson, SP Ian Kennedy
Tigers Receive: SP Max Scherzer, RP Daniel Schlereth, RP Phil Coke, OF Austin Jackson
Yankees Receive: OF Curtis Granderson
*** This deal is still pending an exchange of medical record and player's passing physicals.


THE BREAKDOWN

How did the D-backs do?

Do the D'backs know something we don't? I ask this question because I really don't understand why they would send out the younger and more dominating Scherzer in exchange for Jackson. In addition to the skill level of each hurler, Scherzer is still under control for something like another five seasons which could, theoretically, clearly allow the club some cost certainty whereas Jackson is eligible for salary arbitration this season and could easily triple his $2.3 million contract from last season. Not only that, Jackson becomes a free agent after the 2010 season, so the club will have to get on it and sign Jackson to a long-term deal or they will have given up a potential ace in Scherzer for a one year rental.

All of that is getting ahead of ourselves here though. What about the actual on field product? I'll get to Scherzer below, but what do I think of Arizona's move to add the 26 year old Jackson to their rotation? I did an entire write up on Jackson last week, and you can read the whole report at Breaking Down: Edwin Jackson. Here are a few highlights from that piece for those of you that want the Cliff Notes version.

1- He posted a 2.30 K/BB mark, the first time in his career that the number was better than 1.45.

2- He posted a .281 BABIP that is 28 points below his career mark and his best total since his rookie season of 22 innings. He might have been a wee bit on the lucky side. As an aside, the fact that his left on base percentage was also a career best at 76.7 percent lends further credence to the career best line of thought.

3- He was seventh in the AL in ERA, 13th in WHIP, 14th in strikeouts and 7th in innings pitched.

4- There has to be some concern over the leap his production took last year, not to mention the second half fade that saw him regress to his previously established level of less than scintillating work.

5- I'm not saying you should avoid Jackson in '10, but at the same time make sure you aren't swayed into believing that he deserves to be mentioned with the elite hurlers of the game - he is miles from that group.

Yeah, I'm not sold on Jackson and clearly think this was, at best, a sideways move for the D'backs on the field, and even that is being tremendously kind.

As for Kennedy, he had surgery for an aneurysm in his armpit in May and made only five more appearances over the course of the season. He did pitch fairly well in the AFL (2-1, 28 Ks only 5 BBs over 29.2 innings), and he owns a power arm with well over a strikeout per inning in his minor league career, but he is coming off that arm issue and has all of 17 appearances at Triple-A. He could end up being a solid starter in the bigs if he can keep the walks in check (5.58 BB/9), but he certainly hasn't been able to translate his minor league success to the bigs thus far (6.03 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 0.50 K/BB). Could still be a ways off from being a viable option, but he will likely enter the year in the rotation unless the D'backs make some other moves (they have lost Jon Garland and Doug Davis from last years rotation).


How did the Tigers do?

Max Scherzer was the 11th pick in the 2006 Entry Draft. After flying through the minors, Scherzer had a 56 inning season in 2008 in which he posted a 3.05 ERA, a 10.61 K/9 mark and a 3.14 K/BB ratio. Last season he upped his workload to 170.1 innings as the D'backs were careful to shut him down early so as not to burn out his young arm (he is 25). On the year Max went just 9-11 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP, but he once again struck out more than a batter per inning (9.19 per nine) while slightly lowering his walk rate to 3.33 per nine. In total, his 174 Ks where more than guys like Matt Cain (174), Cole Hamels (168) and Chris Carpenter (144), and each of those guys threw at least 20 more innings than Scherzer. When you throw 94 mph and have a sharp biting slider that sits at 85, you are one tough cookie to hit. Scherzer still needs to learn how to put away left-handed batters, his .276 BAA is .057 points higher than the level that he holds righties to. In addition, though he moves to the AL, he may not see things like his HR/9 mark rise given that he moves from a solid hitter's park to a fairly neutral one. Plus, Scherzer owns a 10.7 HR/F mark in his career with a 1.11 G/F rate, so he is pretty much spot on "average" in those two categories. One last thought - Scherzer could also shift to the bullpen where he could turn into one dynamic closer for a club that is in search of a ninth inning option.

"He's a lot like [Robinson] Cano was as a Minor League player -- good hitter, uses the field," Yankees VP Mark Newman said of Austin Jackson. "He's a guy who's going to get stronger as he matures into his body physically. We think he's going to hit some home runs." Well, if he does, he'll be doing it in Detroit. Jackson has plus speed, is just 22 years old, and could probably use a bit more seasoning. Still, he had a terrific season at Triple-A last year hitting .300 with 65 RBI, 67 runs and 24 steals in 132 games. If given a chance to start the year in the majors, a comparison to what Dexter Fowler did in 2009 likely wouldn't be too far off.

Daniel Schlereth was the D'backs first round selection in the 2008 draft. A physically strong left-handed hurler, Schlereth had Tommy John surgery back in 2004 when in high school, and last season he appeared in a mere 22 games. During his brief work in the minors in his career, he has struck out nearly 14 batters per nine innings while posting an ERA of just barely one. Still, he walked more than five guys per nine innings so is he another hard throwing lefty with no control, or will he grow into that? Given his work with the D'backs last season (7.36 BB/9) he has a ways to go.

Phil Coke is a lefty reliever who appeared in 72 games for the Yankees last season. Though his ERA was 4.50, his WHP was 1.07 thanks in part to a terrific .209 BAA. Given a BABIP mark of .220 despite a 19 percent line drive rate, one would think that Coke would have an extremely difficult time repeating his success at limiting hits and therefore his WHIP is almost certain to rise in 2010. He struck out more than seven guys per nine while walking about three, and as a result he posted a passable 2.45 K/BB mark last season. Could certainly stand to induce a few more grounders, and that 1.46 WHIP and 1.13 K/BB mark against righties last season seems to suggest he should be a situational option out of the pen.

How did the Yankees do?

Very well.

Curtis Granderson may not ever be an elite player, but he is damn good. Granderson has gone 20/20 in two of the past three seasons, and last year was the first time that he hit the 30-HR plateau. Personally I think he is miscast as a leadoff hitter, he would be an ideal five hole hitter, but his combination of power and speed clearly is mighty intriguing, especially considering the following fact - the new Yankee ball yard is a homer haven as it was the best place in baseball to hit a homer last season according to Park Factors (Detroit was a mere 18th). That move alone, simply switching parks, would seem to give Granderson a real shot at turning into a 30-HR bat year after year. In addition, that is one potent lineup in New York, so Granderson should have plenty of men to knock in and plenty of chances to round the bases. One other positive. Granderson has hit at least 22 homers while scoring at least 91 runs in each of the past three seasons, and only six other men in baseball can make that claim (Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley).

On the down side, Granderson strikes out far too often (one of the reasons he might be suited to hit lower in the order). With a 24 percent K-rate in his career his resulting 0.44 BB/K mark is slightly below average, and that contributes to his less than stellar batting average. Another factor to consider here is that Granderson simply cannot hit lefties with a career line of .210/.270/.344 in 619 career at-bats, numbers that are laughable for a man who owns a tremendous set of numbers against righties (.292/.367/.528). He simply must solve this issue in order to be a consistent batting average threat year to year. One last thing about his average that dipped to a career worst .249 last season. Though he produced a 21.2 line drive rate, above his career 20.7 mark, his BABIP of .276 was .047 points below his career mark. That doesn't make any sense. Another similar effort in 2010 will likely see his average climb much closer, if not surpass, his .272 career mark.


WINNERS

* Clearly the Tigers did a great job here cutting expenses for a club in one of the hardest hit economic areas in the country (Granderson is due $26 million the next three years, and Jackson could easily end up with an arbitration win approaching $6-8 million for 2010). They lost an All-Star caliber outfielder in Granderson, but in bringing in Jackson they have a potentially dynamic replacement that will be infinitely cheaper. They also made, in my opinion, a great move on the hill trading away a pitcher about to make a lot of dough despite only one really successful season. Plus, acquiring guys who strike out more than a batter per inning and could legitimately vie for a Cy Young award or two is never a bad thing, and in Scherzer they picked up that level of talent. Plus, if Jackson becomes the type of player many expect, he will be a strong option in center field for years for the Tigers.

* It's tough to say that a team which traded away a potential building block in the outfield like Austin Jackson actually emerged as a winner, but it's the Yankees which means it isn't as important that they hold on to their younger players as others - they can always buy their way to good players. This move also allows them to only truly need to bring back Hideki Matsui or Johnny Damon, they don't really need both, and it could help in the clubs negotiating stance with the two veterans as well. Jackson was highly rated by Baseball America, the top hitter in the organization coming into the year, but the addition of Granderson gives them a huge boost to an already potent lineup.

LOSER

* The Diamondbacks need three things to happen here or this could end up setting them back substantially. (1) They have to be able to ink Jackson to a long-term deal that isn't gigantic. (2) They have to hope that Jackson can at least match his efforts from last season and that he doesn't regress to his previous form. (3) Kennedy needs to develop into a quality major league arm. If those three things do not happen, the Arizona faithful might rue the day this deal went down, especially if they look east and see Max Scherzer posting 15 victory, 200-strikeout seasons for the Tigers.