Around the Horn

November 19, 2009 5:10pm CST

Lincecum wins Cy

It wasn't quite the order I predicted in The NL Cy Young Race, but at least the voters got the top spot right in selecting Tim Lincecum as the 2009 NL Cy Young Award winner. Here is how the voting played out.

Tim Lincecum: 100 points, (11-12-9: first, second third place votes)
Chris Carpenter: 94 points (9-14-7)
Adam Wainwright: 90 points (12-5-15)
Javier Vazquez: 3 points (0-1-0)
Dan Haren: 1 point (0-0-1)

In winning the award, Lincecum sets a record for fewest wins by a starting pitcher (15) who took home the award, and this was only the second time in history that the winner of the award failed to lead the way in first place votes (the other time was 1998, when Tom Glavine had 11 first place votes to 13 for Trevor Hoffman but still emerged with a one-point victory, 99-98). Lincecum also became just the eighth pitcher in history to win the award in back-to-back seasons, though he is only halfway to the record of four straight held by Greg Maddux (1992-95) and Randy Johnson (1999-2002). The voters continue to surprise me this year in selecting the winners that deserve to be so named.


Bay Turns Down Red Sox Offer

Jason Bay is one of the biggest names on the free agent market, but most observers continue to feel that the team in the lead for his services is the team he ended the year with, the Red Sox. However, if the Red Sox really are willing to offer him only $60 million over four years, as a recent report in Sports Illustrated suggested, than their chances of keeping Bay in Boston are miniscule. Bay certainly has hit faults, like hitting under .270 in two of the past three years and striking out at least 129 times in each of the past six seasons, but he is also a wonderful run producer who has hit at least 30 home runs with 100 RBI in four of the past five seasons. He has also added double-digit steals in each of those four seasons, so his fantasy value is terrific even without a dependable batting average.

One final thought. Is it possible that the Red Sox won't pursue Bay and instead try and pry Adrian Gonzalez away from the Padres? While it might make sense, it would cost the Sox prospects to acquire the slugging first baseman, whereas they only need to back up the money truck for Bay. Plus, if the club adds Gonzalez, that moves Kevin Youkilis back to third and Mike Lowell to the bench. It might be the best role for Lowell at this stage of his career, but it isn't likely to a situation he'll accept, especially with Victor Martinez also in the mix for starts at first base, thereby further lessoning the at-bats Lowell could pick up. The Sox will do something, we'll just have to wait and see what it is.


Rays Still In on Bradley

I touched on the Bradley situation last week in detail in Around the Horn. Therefore, I won't get into it again other than to say that talks continue to progress between the Cubs and the Rays around a Bradley-for-Pat Burrell swap.


Cubs agree to deal with Grabow

The Cubs signed lefty reliever John Grabow to a two-year deal worth a reported $7.5 million, which in the humble opinion of this scribe is a whole lot of loot for an average middle reliever. Some might argue since he posted a 3.24 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP with the Cubs, to which I would respond "whoopee-do".

First off, Grabow is a lefty who shows no appreciable advantage over batters from either side of the dish in his career (.263 BAA vs. lefties, .254 against righties). Second, Grabow has never been able to throw strikes. Last year he walked nearly five batters per nine innings, and for his career he owns a 4.15 BB/9 mark. Relievers shouldn't struggle to find the strike zone or they aren't good reliever. Third, because of all those walks, his career K/BB mark is 1.91, which means he has been worse than an average major leaguer in this measure since he joined the league in 2003. And finally, he has been very lucky the past two seasons, especially if you look merely at the ERA category. In fact, his Fielding Independent Pitching ERA, or FIP, says that his performance last season (4.20) wasn't any different than the his 2007 season (4.28) when his actual ERA was 4.53. It's not like the Cubs blew their budget here, but from a performance perspective, it just doesn't seem like a great signing.


Dodgers, Yankees in on Roy Halladay

Well, of course the Yankees would be interested in adding Roy Halladay to their roster. First off, they would be weakening a divisional opponent. Second, he has simply murdered the Yankees over the years (18-6, 2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in 247.1 innings). Third, the Yankees print money in the bowels of their stadium, so what does it matter to them if they add another guy making $15-$20 million a year? Honestly, it's sickening that the Yankees can outspend the rest of the world in salaries, but they are playing within the rules, so you can't blame them (I blame Mr. Bud Selig and baseball in general). Whether or not the Blue Jays would be willing to move Holliday to a team in their division is highly questionable, especially since it would be pretty much be assuring that the Yankees would once again win the division, so perhaps a move to the Dodgers makes more sense. I'll tell you this, if Halladay goes to the Dodgers, he would have to be a favorite for the Cy Young award given that he would get to face pitchers while spending half his season pitching in a great pitcher's yard (not to mention that the Giants and Padres also play in yards that are decidedly pitcher-centric).


Phillies looking to add DeRosa?

With the decision to turn down the option on Pedro Feliz, it appears that the Phillies have turned their sights to Mark DeRosa to fill their opening at third base (in fact, there are believed to be a whole host of teams gunning for his services). A definite plus for the Phillies is that DeRosa went to college at the University of Pennsylvania. Still, DeRosa is coming off an injury-plagued second half that resulted in him going under the knife to fix a torn tendon sheath in his left wrist. All reports are good in terms of the likelihood of him being on the field by the time spring training starts, but you have to wonder if a deal can be worked out financially given that DeRosa must realize this will likely be his last chance to sign a big money deal since he will be 35 in late February. DeRosa has been a 20-homer, 75-RBI threat the past two years, and he would certainly be a threat to both of those totals if he were to sign on to hit in that lineup and play in that ball yard in Philadelphia.


Starting Pitcher Rumor

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, there could be a three-team deal involving a couple of rather big names on the hill. While the third team in the deal is still laying in the shadows, it appears that the Tigers and the Mariners are in the middle of this one, with the names of Edwin Jackson and Brandon Morrow being in the mix. Here's a quick snapshot on the two.

Morrow - Tremendous stuff, more than enough to be a top of the rotation arm now that the Mariners have finally decided to leave him in a starter's role. Unfortunately, his god given talent hasn't been on display very often, as he struggles to throw strikes like Nook LaLoosh of Bull Durham fame (just look at his BB/9 rate: 5.83 in 197.2 innings). Morrow had success in a stint at Triple-A with a 3.60 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and a 3.76 BB/9 mark in 10 starts, and in his final four appearances with the Mariners he went 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Still, this guy is all talent and little results right now, marking him as a huge wild card for 2010.

Jackson - Coming off the best season of his career, there are also concerns here, including a second half meltdown that included a 5.07 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 1.83 K/BB mark over his last 15 starts (in his first 18 starts he produced a 2.52 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a 2.77 K/BB). It can certainly be argued that his second half struggles were merely a regression to the mean. After all, his work last season led to his a second straight year of basically knocking a run off his ERA (5.76, 4.42 and 3.62), a trend that was also reflected in his WHIP (1.75, 1.51 and 1.26). Do you believe in the first half, the second half, or the overall work?

Both pitchers are intriguing options, so we'll certainly keep a close eye on who the third team and see if this rumor really has any legs to it.