Trend or Mirage: Mike Sims-Walker

October 5, 2009 8:37am CDT

Besides oranges, probably the next most recognized commodity emanating from the Sunshine State is college football players bound for the NFL. Many of these raw materials come from the "Big 3" schools consisting of the University of Miami, Florida State, and the University of Florida. However, the University of Central Florida should be considered in the mix when talking about producing a quality crop of players. For UCF, it's difficult to stand out in a crowd when you have to compete for attention with the likes of those three monster programs that get all the juicy prime-time matchups. However, UCF is making a name for their program and have churned out some talented NFL players. Taking a quick peek at the 2009 NFL rosters around the league, you'll find a number of former UCF Knights stars which include: wide receiver Brandon Marshall, kicker Matt Prater, running back Kevin Smith, quarterback Daunte Culpepper, safety Atari Bigby, cornerback Asante Samuel, and wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker.

Sims-Walker was drafted in the third round of the 2007 NFL Draft, along with such notables as running back Adrian Peterson, offensive tackle Joe Thomas, linebacker Patrick Willis, running back Marshawn Lynch, cornerback Darrelle Revis, quarterback Trent Edwards, tight end Zach Miller, and wide receiver Steve "the other Steve Smith" Smith.

NFL CAREER

Season	G	GS	Receptions	Yards	YPC	Touchdowns
2008	9	1	16	217	13.6	0

During his rookie season, Sims-Walker had his entire year wiped out after sustaining a knee injury in the fourth preseason game. Just another instance in what was to be a long line of perceived bad luck for Sims-Walker, who himself said, "I feel cursed. I got a curse ever since I was drafted. I feel every time I come out and start playing well and try to get my groove back, something bad always comes down on me."

Some of his "bad luck" has included tearing the anterior cruciate ligament while at UCF, then injuring the same knee in training camp with the Jaguars, which put him on injured reserve for the season. The following season, he sprained the medial collateral ligament in his right knee and contracted a staph infection. He was injured in a preseason game this year and what was initially feared to be a broken leg turned out to be a high-ankle sprain that he rehabbed quickly and rebounded from. Beyond all the physical injuries during his young NFL career, Sims-Walker recently had experienced an emotional trauma after his father and a close friend died within nine days of one another. Honoring his father, Sims-Walker officially added "Sims" (his father's last name) to his surname (formerly simply Mike Walker). With all the bad luck and tragedy in his life, Sims-Walker is ready for a big change. "I'm overdue for some good luck. I'm still poised for a big year. It's time for me to step up." Very prophetic words indeed, as Sims-Walker has already surpassed last year's entire production in just the fourth week of this season.

GOOD NEWS

Buried in the depth chart beneath wide receivers Jerry Porter, Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, and Dennis Northcutt, Sims-Walker found some of that good luck he was looking for, as all the aforementioned receivers were released in the offseason. The Jaguars brass brought in veteran Torry Holt and retained the butter fingered Troy Williamson. Though Troy Williamson was having a stellar preseason, he went down with a severe shoulder injury in Week 1 and was shelved for the season on IR. The opportunity created for Sims-Walker was one that he wouldn't let slip through his fingers (much like a perfect spiral through the brick hands of Williamson).

With the exception of the first game of the 2009 season in which Sims-Walker didn't start (due to the presence of Williamson), Sims-Walker has looked the part of a No. 1 receiver, despite the presence of veteran (and supposed No.1 receiver) Holt. Sims-Walker has rejuvenated the Jacksonville passing attack and has made a fantasy stud out of quarterback David Garrard by turning in games that have put a smile on fantasy owners' faces from coast to coast. A snapshot of Sims-Walker season below, reveals production that already has surpassed last season's totals, and is on pace to shatter any expectations anyone in this organization had coming into this season, including Sims-Walker himself.

Opponent	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns
Week 1: Indianapolis	0	0	0
Week 2: Arizona	6	106	1
Week 3: Houston	6	81	0
Week 4: Tennessee	7	91	2

Average per Start: 6 receptions, 93 yards and 1 touchdown
Projected Stats: 76 receptions, 1,112 yards and 12 touchdowns

Considering the Jaguars secondary has been burned more often than a nudist beach (they're tied for last in the league in pass defense), you can count on the Jags to be playing from behind, so one could expect a lot of aerial dogfights led by Garrard and Sims-Walker.

BAD NEWS

Garrard is on track for a career year with projected totals of 3,764 yards and 20 touchdowns. However, only once has Garrard ever started 16 games in his seven-year career, which was last season. Behind him is journeyman backup Luke McCown, who isn't exactly going to light the world on fire. If somehow Garrard is able to buck the odds and log his second consecutive (and second ever) full-season, then everything will be rosy in Jacksonville. If not, then the entire passing game will take a precipitous drop in production with McCown steering the ship.

With career years being bandied here, it should also be noted that tight end Marcedes Lewis is on pace for a career year (44 catches for 716 yards and eight touchdowns). Continuing on this pace or even taking it up a notch might chip away at Sims-Walker's opportunities to continue his current success.

VERDICT

The Jaguars have been dining high off the hog versus the bottom-tiered pass defenses this season, and Sims-Walker is no exception. Against the Cardinals (30th versus pass) and Titans (31st), Sims-Walker has averaged 99 receiving yards and more than one touchdown per game. Even against an upper-tier pass defense such as Houston (11th), Sims-Walker put up a respectable 81 yards through the air. That's good news heading forward, as the Jaguars next two opponents before their Week 7 bye are the Seahawks (17th) and the woeful Rams (19th). Coming out of their bye, the Jaguars will have the pleasure of reacquainting themselves with division-rival Tennessee who is last in the NFL in pass defense. Sims-Walker just had a career game against the Titans, and is most assuredly looking forward to the lighting the Titans' secondary up like the Fourth of July. After their rematch against Tennessee, the Jaguars come home to face the Chiefs and their 28th ranked pass defense. Can you say easy money?

Sims-Walker has obviously become a favorite target of Garrard, and has practically single-handedly turned around the entire passing game. He leads the Jaguars' receiving corps in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. As long as Garrard continues to stay healthy, there's no reason to believe that Sims-Walker won't continue on his current pace, and continue to mature as a receiver. The schedule is in place for an encore to his early-season performance. Believe the hype; his production thus far has been a trend that fantasy owners can continue to rely upon in the near future.