Impact Reports Review: Outfielders

October 9, 2009 3:38pm CDT

All year long I've acted like a know-it-all, telling you what to do with players in my Impact Reports columns. So, now that the 2009 season is complete, how did I do? I'm going to answer that question by reviewing all of the "predictions" I made for the 2009 season. I'll list a quote for you from the original Impact Report, offer a little analysis, and then give myself a grade on how I did with each player (Part II will deal with outfielders, Part III pitchers).

Here is the grading system I will employ.

STRIKEOUT = I must have been stoned.
SINGLE = A bleeder through the infield. Not a very good at-bat.
DOUBLE = Solid work, though I didn't drive a run in.
TRIPLE = One exciting play and I can't be disappointed with the result.
HOME RUN = I'm ready for my curtain call.

NOTE: All players reviewed in September were left out of this discussion, as the decision was made that there wasn't enough game action to render a decision on whether or not "the call" was accurate.

Impact Reports - A Review: Infield

OUTFIELDERS

Milton Bradley, Cubs
Stats at time of piece: .241-5-16-24-0 in 166 at-bats
2009 stats: .257-12-40-61-2 in 393 at-bats
Quote: "...there is simply no way to predict an overnight return to prominence from this outfielder. Bradley certainly might be productive in spurts moving forward, but the cold hard truth is that he simply isn't someone that should ever be viewed as anything more than a fifth outfielder in deep mixed leagues, as his career shows him to be one of the most frustrating players to own in all of baseball."- From June 26th

Review: This one is slightly cheating, a way to pad the stats, if you will, as it was obvious to everyone not in the Cubs front office that this was a terrible signing the moment that they inked Bradley to the deal. He will always be a volatile, injury-prone mixture of sublime skills, but don't forget that he has only once had a season of more than 415 at-bats. Just once. As for the "spurts" I spoke of, Bradley hit .308 with 18 runs scored and a .911 OPS in 26 August games but fell to just .196 with a .501 OPS in 14 September games. Ride him while he is hot, dump him while he is not. That should be your motto with this guy, so let someone else deal with the headache.
Grade: Home run

Jay Bruce, Reds
Stats at time of piece: .213-15-32-33-3
2009 stats: .223-22-58-47-3
Quote: "Fact: He cannot hit lefties.
Fact: He really struggles at night.
Fact: He is brutal on the road.
Fact: He hasn't produced in the batting average category since his white hot start last year.
Fact: His plate discipline is merely average.
Fact: He hasn't shown the speed on the base paths that he flashed while in the minors.

Make no mistake, he should still provide plenty of long balls moving forward, and with a little bit of luck that average of his should rise, as well, but at this stage of his career he should be viewed as nothing more than a low-average, low-speed option with a power bat at the dish."- From June 16th

Review: This wasn't a very popular position to take when I wrote the piece, but the fact is that everything I said was, and still remains, true (of course his campaign was hindered by injury, as well, and that certainly didn't help his development). Here is what we know.

*He finished they year with a .210/.313/.330 line with two homers against lefties (100 at-bats).

* He hit .217 in night games (253 at-bats).

* He batted .183 with a .635 OPS in road games.

* He owns a .240 career average, a mark that drops to .231 if we remove the first 18 at-bats of his career.

* He posted a 0.51 BB/K mark this season. The ML average in 2009 was 0.49.

* He stole only three bases this season and in his brief career has seven steals while being caught nine times.
Grade: Home run

Ryan Church, Mets
Stats at time of piece: .274-2-23-28-6 in 241 at-bats
2009 stats: .273-4-40-46-6 in 359 at-bats
Quote: "Church would appear, barring a hidden injury, to be operating at far below his previous power levels, which could certainly lead one to posit that he could see a nice upsurge in his power production in the second half. In total, Church is barely rosterable in standard 12-team leagues regardless of where he plays or what team he is on, but that doesn't mean that there still isn't some room for growth here from the California native."- From July 14th

Review: What a shock. Church was injured yet again and held to just 118 at-bats after the All-Star break. He hit .271, almost the same mark he recorded in the first half, and though he hit only two homers in the second half, I'm still going to say I was accurate in my prediction of an "upsurge" in his power production. How can I say that? After averaging a homer every 121 at-bats and a double every 15.1 at-bats before the All-Star game, those ratios improved to one homer per 58 at-bats and one double every 9.8 at-bats as his SLG went up 59 points to .424. Granted, this isn't what we had hoped for in the fantasy game, mainly an increase in home runs, but it was improvement. And he certainly wasn't rosterable in 12-teams leagues, even though everyone was excited when he was moved to the Braves.
Grade: Triple

Jack Cust, Athletics
Stats at time of piece: .291-5-21-20-1 in 110 at-bats
2009 stats: .240-25-70-88-4 in 513 at-bats
Quote: "...he has changed his approach at the dish, and with the change he has basically thrown most of his baseline levels of performance for a total loop. Given the totality of his career data, we would assume a regression more along the lines of what we have seen from him the past few seasons than what we have seen the first month and half this season...."- From May 15th

Review: Cust had apparently eschewed his free-swinging, power-hitting ways early on, choosing to swing and make contact in the hope of boosting his batting average. However, as predicted, he eventually settled back into being a power-hitting, walk-inducing, strikeout machine by year's end. Want to see how close he was to his career levels by the end of the year?

2009: .240 AVG, 36.1 K-rate, 0.50 BB/K, .323 BABIP, 0.87 G/F, 17.7 HR/F
Career: .239 AVG, 39.5 K-rate, 0.55 K/BB, .331 BABIP, 1.04 G/F, 24.7 HR/F

About the only number that really failed to return to "normal" was that HR/F ratio. Still, thanks to a career-high at-bat total, he was able to record a third straight season of 25 homers, and though he recorded a three-year low with 70 RBI he did posted a career best 88 runs scored.
Grade: Home run

Cory Hart, Brewers
Stats at time of piece: .239-6-22-33-3 in 213 at-bats
2009 stats: .260-12-48-61-11 in 419 at-bats
Quote: "It wouldn't be at all surprising to see Hart improve a bit as the season moves forward, but at the same time if you were hoping for a .290 season with 25 homers and 25 steals, well, prepare yourself to be disappointed because it hardly seems plausible to hope for those numbers in the current campaign."- From June 11th

Review: This one was tough to grade. I almost went in the direction of a double, but at the same time Hart did improve his average and steals totals after the initial piece ran while matching his home run pace. He also fell well short of the .290-25-25 threshold I mentioned, due greatly to injury (specifically that appendectomy he was forced to undergo). Even if we do him the favor of postulating the extension of his rate of production this season over 612 at-bats, the total he had in 2008, he would still have finished with 18 homers and 16 steals, not even close to being a stones throw from a 25/25 campaign.
Grade: Triple

Brad Hawpe, Rockies
Stats at time of piece: .362-5-27-16-0 in 94 at-bats
2009 stats: .285-23-86-82-1 501 at-bats
Quote: "...Hawpe is one power bat that you can depend on pushing 30 home runs and 100 RBI if he stays healthy. If he can manage to hold on to any of his gains at the dish, either in the form of handling lefties or the strike zone, it is certainly possible that he could eclipse both of those plateaus as he nearly did in 2007."- From May 14th

Review: Hawpe was an effective power bat yet again, but he fell well short of early predictions. Why? He was simply awful in the second half of the season. Just look at those splits

Pre All-Star: .320-14-59 in 284 at-bats
Post All-Star: .240-9-27 in 217 at-bats

Hawpe didn't cure his swing and miss ways with a career-worst 145 strikeouts thanks to a career-worst 28.9 strikeout rate, and after a strong start vs. lefties, he fell to career levels when all was said and done (.243/.337/.438). I give myself a double here because his overall numbers were still solid, even if they didn't denote any kind of career type effort. After all, he was one of just six outfielders to hit at least .285 with 20 homers, 80 RBI and 80 runs scored in '09.
Grade: Double

Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
Stats at time of piece: .286-3-8-9-1in 49 at-bats
2009 stats: .259-13-47-48-5 in 429 at-bats
Quote: "If he can stay healthy, he still owns the skills to be a fine hitter at the dish, though dreams of a 20/20 season will likely have to stay in the realm of fantasy... Hermida is most likely to be of value if the expectations remain modest, meaning that penciling him as your fifth outfielder in a mixed league would allow you to receive a nice return on your investment."- From April 23rd

Review: Hermida didn't stay healthy (quite the shock), and he continued to be a rather middling option, one who has failed at pretty much every turn to live up to the billing that saw him drafted 11th overall in 2002. His overall numbers weren't useful in mixed leagues, and in fact he was barely a depth play in NL-only leagues. What is that saying? Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me? Hermida just won't ever be that guy you can depend on. I only gave myself a "double" because he probably did return enough to be at least a break even investment.
Grade: Double

Adam Lind, Blue Jays
Stats at time of piece: .438-2-7 in 16 at-bats
2009 stats: .305-35-114-93-1 in 587 at-bats
Quote: "He is a fine hitter, one certainly capable of producing decent numbers over the course of a full season of at-bats. Lind should be an asset in AL-only leagues, but he is likely nothing more than a fifth option in the outfield in standard mixed leagues."- From April 10th

Review: This was about as bad as it gets in terms of predictive accuracy, though I can take some solace in the fact that nearly every other pundit would have agreed with me in the second week of the season (our 2008 Fanball Annual Guide had Lind as the 90th best outfielder heading into the season). Lind was amazing this season, finishing fourth in the AL in home runs, third in RBI and with his .305 batting average he was one of just three AL hitters to go .300-30-100 this year (the others were Miguel Cabrera and Kendry Morales).
Grade: Single

Nick Swisher, Yankees
Stats at time of piece: .458-4-11-10 with a 1.744 OPS in 24 at-bats
2009 stats: .249-29-82-84-0 in 498 at-bats
Quote: "Swisher is a great bet to go deep at least 20 times in '09... a return to the 30 home run level isn't out of the question if he is given 500+ at-bats... It is almost an even bet that that his batting average will rebound to the .250 range after last season's run of extremely bad luck, and he boasts enough plate discipline to score a fair number of runs as well, if you can handle a batting average that will likely be below the league average (.264 last season)."- From April 15th

Review: Talk about a home run. This one was actually a grand slam. OK, it may have landed in the front row, after all, he didn't hit 30 homers (he had 29), and he didn't get 500+ at-bats (he had 498), and he didn't hit .250 (he hit .249). Still, that's as close as you can come when predicting numbers after a handful of games in April.
Grade: Home Run

Willy Taveras, Reds
Stats at time of piece: .315-1-7-24-8 in 111 at-bats
2009 stats: .240-1-15-56-25 in 404 at-bats
Quote: "With a career .285 average, his .251 mark last season is almost certainly a mirage, but he also stole bases at an amazingly high rate last season which could easily lead to a reduction in his steal total this season even if he gets in base more frequently than he did last year... There is also the specter of injury to think about - don't forget Taveras has been limited to an average of 115 games and 426 at-bats the past two years."- From May 12th

Review: Well, it turns out the .251 average last season wasn't a mirage, as he managed to undershoot even that underwhelming mark in 2009. However, the rest of what I wrote made me look pretty smart, did it not? Injuries certainly hit him, and hard, as he actually slightly undershoot his career average in at-bats and games (102). As for the steals, that total was more than halved down to 25. He was still caught only six times (he was nabbed seven times in 75 attempts last year), but despite just 75 fewer at-bats compared to 2008 he attempted 44 fewer steal attempts. I told you.
Grade: Triple

Jayson Werth, Phillies
Stats at time of piece: .263-20-56-60-12 in 308 at-bats
2009 stats: .268-36-99-98-20 in 571 at-bats
Quote: "Werth seems well on his way to another 20/20 effort with career high in virtually every offensive category. Even though his average exactly matches that of his career mark (.263), it would appear possible that he has some more room to climb in this category... The key to his second half, beyond all the numbers we could throw at you, is likely whether or not Werth can stay in the lineup and avoid the injuries that have crept into his game in the past."- From July 15th

Review: His average fell into the .260's. Boo hoo. It was still three points above his career mark, so you knew what you were getting there. Werth had a tremendous season any way you slice it, as he pulled off his second straight 20/20 season with two steals on the last day of the season. The biggest change this season to year's past is that he stayed healthy all year, and his team rewarded him with a spot in the everyday lineup. Did Werth reach those career highs? You bet your rear he did (I wanted to use another three-letter word, but that vulgarity wouldn't pass the Fanball censors). Werth set career bests in homers, RBI, runs, hits (153), at-bats (571), SLG (.506) and OPS (.879). Yahtzee!
Grade: Home Run

OVERALL

I reviewed 11 outfielders over the course of the 2009 season, and here is how I ended up in the prediction game.

Single: one
Double: two
Triple: three
Home Run: five