Impact Reports Review: Infielders

October 8, 2009 2:01pm CDT

All year long I've acted like a know-it-all, telling you what to do with players in my Impact Reports columns. So, now that the 2009 season is complete, how did I do? I'm going to answer that question by reviewing all of the "predictions" I made for the 2009 season. I'll list a quote for you from the original Impact Report, offer a little analysis, and then give myself a grade on how I did with each player (Part II will deal with outfielders, Part III pitchers).

Here is the grading system I will employ.

STRIKEOUT = I must have been stoned.
SINGLE = A bleeder through the infield. Not a very good at-bat.
DOUBLE = Solid work, though I didn't drive a run in.
TRIPLE = One exciting play and I can't be disappointed with the result.
HOME RUN = I'm ready for my curtain call.

NOTE: All players reviewed in September were left out of this discussion, as the decision was made that there wasn't enough game action to render a decision on whether or not "the call" was accurate.


INFIELDERS

Mike Aviles, 2B/SS, Royals
Stats at time of piece: .211-1-8-8-1 in 95 at-bats
2009 stats: .183-1-8-10-1 in 120 at-bats
Quote: "...Aviles wasn't as good as he showed last season and he certainly isn't as putrid as he has looked in '09... If the Royals continue to run him out there on a daily basis, and he isn't battling some hidden injury, Aviles will eventually start to turn things around and hit." - From May 8th

Review: Well, I can't say I missed on this one at all. Aviles isn't as good as he showed in 2008 (.325-10-51 in 419 at-bats), and he was in fact hiding a hidden injury that drained his average down to .183 before it called it a year. That injury, one he was concealing from the team, started out as a strained forearm before eventually ended up being diagnosed as an elbow issue that required Tommy John surgery. He may end up missing a decent portion of 2010 after undergoing the surgery in July.
Grade: Home Run

Jason Bartlett, SS, Rays
Stats at time of piece: .375-2-3-8-2 in 32 at-bats
2009 stats: .3200-14-66-90-30 in 500 at-bats
Quote: "Bartlett lacks pop, will never drive in a ton of runs, and may not even score a boatload of runs given his spot at the bottom of the batting order, but he is a good bet to steal 20 bags while providing a solid batting average thanks to a stable skill set, marking him as a great option for those of you looking for a middle infield play in mixed leagues."- From April 16th

Review: Well, I still think Bartlett lacks pop, but at the same time he did hit 14 homers this season, and that's a solid total. The Rays, realizing how hot Bartlett was, changed things up a bit and inserted Bartlett into the leadoff role for 218 of those 500 at-bats, and as a result, he scored 90 runs, again against type and what I predicted. However, I was dead on with the average and the steals, both of which turned out to be career best totals. That's 50/50, a merely passable score, though hopefully you took the last few words to heart as he certainly ended up being a "great" middle infield play.
Grade: Double

Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros
Stats at time of piece: .164-5-10-10-0 in 73 at-bats
2009 stats: .274-25-80-73-7 in 460 at-bats
Quote: "...Berkman's skills are clearly starting to erode somewhat, and with that a regression in his batting average could occur... Don't expect a 40-homer season or 120 RBI, but there are still a whole lot of reasons to expect another 30-100 season from the Big Puma."- From April 29th

Review: Berkman has seen his skills erode a bit, as the second worst strikeout rate of the past 10 years (21.3 percent) shows. Still, there wasn't a lot here that was unexpected. Honestly, Berkman was a bit unlucky with a .300 BABIP, the worst mark of his career since a 93-at-bat twirl his first year, and that led to him undershooting his career batting average by 25 points. As for his run to 30-100, he fell well short, though interestingly, it had little to do with slippage but a lot to do with opportunity. Berkman ended up with his lowest at-bat total since 2001, and as a result his counting numbers fell despite the following fact: if Berkman kept his pace over 550 at-bats he would have produced 30 homers and 96 RBI. If only he had those extra 90 at-bats, the prediction would have earned at least a Triple.
Grade: Double

Yuniesky Betancourt, SS, Royals
Stats at time of piece: .250-2-22-15-3 in 224 at-bats
2009 stats: .245-6-49-40-3 in 246 at-bats
Quote: "Yuniesky Betancourt has little power or speed and has never been very adept at producing runs. Therefore, his value is certainly minimal. Still, in AL-only leagues, a middle infielder who can hit .280 isn't a bad option, especially if he is in the lineup on a daily basis."- From July 16th

Review: Obviously Betancourt failed miserably in his attempt to hit at least .279 for the fourth straight season. You can blame career lows in line-drive rate (17.1 percent) and BABIP (.260), but the bottom line is that he failed to be the hitter he had been the previous three seasons, which was quite the shock given the extreme level of consistency he flashed in those campaigns.
Grade: Single

Emilio Bonifacio, 2B/3B, Marlins
Stats at time of piece: 8-for-14, six runs, four RBI, four steals
2009 stats: .252-1-27-72-21 in 461 at-bats
Quote: "Bonifacio should be a prodigious source of stolen bases this season if the Marlins stick to the plan and run him out there every day, but there is also the chance that when his average starts to wane (as it likely will), and the strikeouts begin to pile up (as they likely will), that he could be relegated to the bottom of the Marlins order, which would torpedo a fair amount of his value... Bonifacio certainly needs some refinement in his game before he can truly be considered a fantasy staple."- From April 8th

Review: Twenty-one may not be a prodigious steal total, but it is a solid mark. Ultimately that batting average plummeted to below the major league "average," thanks in no small part to a nearly 21 percent strikeout rate and a 0.36 BB/K mark. The team stuck with him far too long at the top of the order (89 percent of his at-bats came in the one or two holes), hardly a wise decision for a man who posted an anemic .303 OBP this season. At least they only gave him 54 at-bats from August 1st on.
Grade: Home Run

Russell Branyan, 1B/3B, Mariners
Stats at time of piece: .309-10-20-24-1 in 123 at-bats
2009 stats: .251-31-76-64-2 in 431 at-bats
Quote: "The man will not hit .300... Branyan will blast home runs at a fairly prodigious rate with only his plate appearance total limiting his ability to hit 30 long balls... Branyan's high strikeout total will not only limit his batting average, it will also likely dampen his ability to get on base. Ergo, Russell doesn't figure to continue the runs scoring pace we have seen from him in the early going (24 runs in 33 games)."- From May 19th

Review: Talk about heading out on a limb, huh? Seventy-five percent of you out there would have probably agreed with the above statement when I made it, but I was still the one out there for everyone to deride if things turned out differently. They didn't. Branyan socked his 30 dingers, as expected, and his average plummeted to .251, though to be fair that is still 17 points above his career mark. Of course, Branyan continued to strike out, more than once every three at-bats, and as a result his OBP dipped to .347, just slightly better than the ML average (his career mark is .331). Branyan did score 64 runs, a career high, but his rate dipped from one every 5.13 at-bats at the time of the piece to one every 7.70 thereafter.
Grade: Home Run

Billy Butler, 1B, Royals
Stats at time of piece: .154-0-1 in 26 at-bats
2009 stats: .301-21-93-78-1 in 608 at-bats
Quote: "Butler will likely be a fantasy staple in mixed leagues for a long time, and he should be able to start that run this season despite the slow start, though he may never be the type of hitter to lead a team to a fantasy championship... a ceiling of 20 home runs will likely remain unless he makes some serious changes to his swing and his approach at the plate."- From April 17th

Review: Sometimes it's nice to be right. Butler was indeed a strong play this season, as he was one of only seven first basemen in the game who hit .300 with 20 homers (a pretty low total given the offensive exploits of first sackers). Given that he almost reached triple digits in the RBI column, as well, it can easily be stated that he was a mixed league staple this season. As for home runs, he hit 21, but still, that will likely be his ceiling given his approach at the dish. What do I mean? In his career he owns a 1.40 G/F ratio. In 2009, that number was 1.37. He did post a career-best 11.9 percent HR/F rate, but if that number falls even a bit, he will likely find it difficult to once again his the 20-homer mark unless he starts hitting more balls in the air.
Grade: Home Run

J.J. Hardy, SS, Brewers
Stats at time of piece: .207-5-25-29-0 in 208 at-bats
2009 stats: .229-11-47-53-0 in 414 at-bats
Quote: "Poor luck certainly appears to have played a part in his struggles to this point... Still, we also would surmise that he hasn't been able to get into much of a groove at the dish because of a back injury that has hampered him since early April... . If that happens, we would expect nothing less than a rebound for Hardy to his previously established levels over the rest of the season (note we did say we expect him to hit 25 home runs with 75 RBI this season, we said we would expect him to return to his previously established level of performance over however many games remain once the back issue is under control)."- From June 16th

Review: Total swing and a miss here. Hey, no one is perfect. Hardy did improve from the time the piece was written, but given the depths he had fallen to, that's hardly enough to elicit a yippee! Oddly, Hardy matched his BB/K mark (0.51 to 0.58 for his career) and G/F ratio (1.17 in '09 and career), but he tanked in LD-rate, losing three percentage points down to 13.9 percent, and his HR/F rate, over 12 percent each of the previous three seasons, dipped to just 8.3 percent. I guess that back issue never really clearly up enough to allow him to really drive the ball.
Grade: Single

Micah Hoffpauir, 1B, Cubs
Stats at time of piece: one HR, five RBI in 20 at-bats
2009 stats: .239-10-35-28-1 in 234 at-bats
Quote: "He could stand to work on his plate discipline, as he still doesn't walk enough, and he will likely be at the mercy of the health of Milton Bradley and Derrek Lee for at-bats in 2009, but that doesn't mean that those of you in NL-only leagues shouldn't hold on to Hoffpauir."- From April 24th

Review: NL-only leaguers can't really complain about 10 homers and 35 RBI from a part-time player grabbed off waivers. Still, he was only able to rack up 234 at-bats, so he just wasn't on the field on a consistent basis. He did post a somewhat better than expected 0.43 BB/K mark, but that is still well below the major league average of about 0.50, so I was right on that count, as well.
Grade: Triple

Placido Polanco, 2B, Tigers
Stats at time of piece: .262-6-40-35-3 in 302 at-bats
2009 stats: .285-10-72-82-7 in 618 at-bats
Quote: "...I find it hard to believe that a man who has posted a LD-rate of at least 18.7 percent in each season of his career will continue to struggle along at just over 16 percent. Therefore, a slight improvement seems certain in the batting average category when things stabilize, and we wouldn't rule out a rather significant bump up if his luck turns a bit. We aren't ready to give up on Polanco yet, and neither should you, though his days of hitting over .310 certainly seem to be in the rearview mirror."- From July 8th

Review: Polanco produced yet another solid all-around season despite the slow start. In fact, he tore it up in the batting average category in the second half, hitting .315 over his final 73 games and .339 over his final 31 trips to the field. As predicted, his line-drive rate also spiked up to 19.9 percent overall. That final number was still well below his 22.4 percent career mark, but it might be of comfort to realize that his LD-rate was nearly identical to his career mark in the second half as the predicted regression occurred.
Grade: Home Run

Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies
Stats at time of piece: .198-1-10-15-2 in 126 at-bats
2009 stats: .250-21-77-100-31 in 672 at-bats
Quote: "He has been a bit unlucky, and he has struggled a bit to make consistently solid contact at the dish, but history shows us that unless he is concealing some unknown injury that things should eventually turn around... . But keep that "normal" in perspective, i.e. do not expect him to hit .295 with 25 home runs while driving in 90 runs, as those are likely levels he will not be able to attain."- From May 13th

Review: Duh. Rollins hit only .229 with a .642 OPS in the first half before returning to the levels we have long come to expect from him, including a .272 average and a .801 OPS. As for the unlucky part, he never really got over that. His .253 BABIP mark is well below his .295 career mark, and while some of that can clearly be laid at the feet of his career worst 19.2 LD-rate (career: 21.5), he still should have had a better BABIP mark. Oh, and how did he do versus his career average? Glad you asked, as only his slow start in the batting average category left him with a number out of the realm of the expected.

.250-21-77-130-31: 2009 in 155 games
.274-17-72-109-38: Per 162 games in his career
Grade: Home Run

Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants
Stats at time of piece: Four hits in 11 at-bats
2009 stats: .330-25-90-79-5 in 572 at-bats
Quote: "Pablo Sandoval should hit for a solid average in 2009 with moderate power. As a first or third baseman, that marks him as a decent play... He still has yet to show the skills to drive the ball on a consistent basis, and because of that his home run upside is limited... He won't fall off the map, but without catcher eligibility he may not provide the type of production that you seek from a corner infielder."- From April 9th

Review: Another total whiff. Sandoval exceeded everyone's expectations this season, as he finished second in the NL in batting average, sixth in slugging percentage (.556) and seventh in OPS (.943) with a mark that outpaced even Ryan Braun, who finished at .937. I wrote the other day in Some Regular Season Thoughts about how I'm still concerned with Sandoval, but the fact of the matter is that he was simply wonderful in 2009.
Grade: Single

OVERALL

I reviewed 12 infielders over the course of the 2009 season, and here is how I ended up.

Single: three
Double: two
Triple: one
Home Run: six