Impact Reports - A Review: Pitchers

October 15, 2009 4:30pm CDT

All year long I've acted like a no-it-all telling you what to do with players in my Impact Reports column. So, now that the 2009 season is complete, how did I do? I'm going to answer that question by reviewing all of the "predictions" I made for the 2009 season. I'll list a quote for you from the original Impact Report, offer a little analysis, and then give myself a grade on how I did with each player.

Here is the grading system I will employ.

STRIKEOUT = I must have been stoned.
SINGLE = A bleeder through the infield. Not a very good at-bat.
DOUBLE = Solid work, though I didn't drive a run in.
TRIPLE = One exciting play and I can't be disappointed with the result.
HOME RUN = I'm ready for my curtain call.

NOTE: All players reviewed in September were left out of this discussion as the decision was made that there wasn't enough game action to render a decision on whether or not "the call" was accurate.

Impact Reports - A Review: Infield
Impact Reports - A Review: Outfield

PITCHERS

Brian Bannister, Royals
Stats at time of piece: 6-6, 3.87 ERA, 55 K, 1.29 WHIP in 90.2 IP
2009 stats: 7-12, 4.73 ERA, 98 K, 1.37 WHIP in 154 IP
Quote: "So why did I even bother to review Bannister? Because Bannister is probably rostered in 99 percent of 12-team mixed leagues due to his 3.87 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, numbers that are a mirror image of his work in '07 (3.87 and 1.21). Just because he posted those numbers two years ago doesn't mean we should expect his current ratios to stay where they are." - From July 9th

Review: You gotta love Mr. Bannister, he is about the only baseball player who routinely talks to the media about sabermetrics (he really knows his stuff), but you could see this fade coming from a mile away. Over his last 10 starts before his season was shutdown because of injury, Bannister had a 6.63 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP as he went 1-5 for the Royals. The 2007 season was a fluke, i.e. he was exceedingly lucky (look no further than his .266 BABIP), so you shouldn't have been at all shocked by his final ratios as they were only 0.06 off in ERA (4.79) and exactly on par with his WHIP when compared to his career levels.
Grade: Home Run

A.J. Burnett, Yankees
Stats at time of piece: 2-5, 5.02 ERA, 43 K, 1.40 WHIP in 52 IP
2009 stats: 13-9, 4.04 ERA, 195 K, 1.40 WHIP in 207 IP
Quote: "Burnett should stabilize as we move forward. By that we mean that his strikeout rate should increase as his walk total decreases. It also stands to reason that once he starts to induce a few more groundballs that his ratios should likewise begin to trend downward as they currently are much higher than one would expect for a pitcher of his caliber... We wouldn't be at all surprised to see his performance improve across the board in the four fantasy categories, but there is still a reason to be leery based on the workload concerns..." - From May 19th

Review: Burnett did "stabilize" as he went 11-4 after the piece was written, and his ERA did drop nearly a full run. In addition, his strikeout rate that was 7.44 at the time of the piece ended the year at 8.48, so another check in the plus column. The only miss was on the workload concerns. For the first time in his career he had back-to-back 200-innings seasons. Heck, it was the first time he went for 175 in back-to-back campaigns.
Grade: Triple

Matt Cain, Giants
Stats at time of piece: 8-1, 2.55 ERA, 59 K, 1.35 WHIP in 77.2 IP
2009 stats: 14-8, 2.89 ERA, 171 K, 1.18 WHIP in 217.2 IP
Quote: "Cain's won-loss record has shown a drastic improvement from years past, and while his ERA might appear to reflect that change, the bottom line is there simply hasn't been any substantial movement in his overall outlook in 2009... Given that what we are currently seeing is just more of the same, we would have to expect for Cain's ERA to climb slowly as the season moves on... the bottom line is there simply hasn't been any substantial movement in his overall outlook in 2009."- From June 11th

Review: Cain's ERA was 2.89 on the season, well below where I thought it should be expected to finally rest. Still, it's not like there weren't a lot of reasons to expect that number to be worse (as an example, his DIPS ERA was 3.90), and he did post a 4.98 mark over his last six starts. The rest of his pitching line was more of the same when compared to his career levels.

K/9: 7.07 vs. career 7.52
K/BB: 2.34 vs. career 2.09
HR/9: 0.91 vs. 0.79
G/F: 0.92 vs. 0.81
Grade: Triple

Johnny Cueto, Reds
Stats at time of piece: 1-1, 2.19 ERA, 20 K, 1.18 WHIP in 24.2 IP
2009 stats: 11-11, 4.41 ERA, 132 K, 1.36 WHIP in 171.1 IP
Quote: "Cueto hasn't had many concerns with his arm though some still worry about his health given the velocity of his pitches and his rather diminutive physical size... the biggest concern with Cueto is whether or not he can learn to work around the inevitable fly balls and home runs that he will allow... while we wouldn't go out on a limb and predict a season to rival what Volquez did last year, it would be at least an even bet that Cueto will produce better numbers than he did last year..."- From May 1st

Review: Cueto did experience some arm issues, especially in August when he missed a couple of starts, and his total of 171.1 innings was eight outs less than he recorded in '08. On the plus side his ERA went down 0.40 while his WHIP fell 0.05, and he managed to win two more games while losing three fewer when compared to his rookie campaign. As for the fly balls, Cueto allowed the same total as he did in his rookie season, just under 41 percent, but he cut 2.7 percent off his HR/F rate and that certainly made a positive impact on his ERA.
Grade: Home Run

Zach Duke, Pirates
Stats at time of piece: 6-4, 2,62 ERA, 42 K, 1.13 WHIP in 79 IP
2009 stats: 11-16, 4.06 ERA, 106 K, 1.31 WHIP in 213 IP
Quote: "If there was ever a case of selling high, this could be it... The best advice might be to talk up how great he has been this year, and how great he was as a rookie, and hope that someone bites on a trade offer before the regression monster begins to rear its ugly head."- From June 3rd

Review: Over his last 14 starts Duke posted a 5.17 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP and a 3-8 record. With his utter lack of strikeout stuff he was useless in the second half (even in NL-only leagues). This one was like taking candy from the proverbial baby.
Grade: Home Run

Gavin Floyd, White Sox
Stats at time of piece: 6-6, 4.33 ERA, 85 K, 1.32 WHIP in 108 IP
2009 stats: 11-11, 4.06 ERA, 163 K, 1.23 WHIP in 193 IP
Quote: "Floyd has been lucky this season in that his HR/9 rate has been cut in half... he simply hasn't figured out a way to maintain his strong work at home when he takes to the road... The truth is that according to most measures, since the start of last season, that Floyd has barely been better than the average AL hurler."- From July 7th

Review: Floyd did a good job keeping the homers in check, but he did allow more homers as the season wore on. Still, his 0.98 mark per nine innings was a career best and much better than his 1.37 career mark. Floyd also finished the year with a .500 record, and you can't get more average than that. His 4.06 WHIP was better than the AL average of 4.46, but it's not like you are doing cartwheels for a mark over four. He did produce a strong 1.11 WHIP over his last 12 starts, and he even managed to up his strikeout rate and overall total from 2008. Still, the guy still doesn't pitch very well on the road (5-8, 5.47 ERA) and that will continue to hold him back.
Grade: Triple

Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
Stats at time of piece: 1-1, 6.94 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, nine K, six BB in 11.2 IP
2009 stats: 13-12, 3.73 ERA, 204 K, 1.31 WHIP in 185.2 IP
Quote: "...Gallardo can dominate any lineup with an assortment of stuff that few starting pitchers can match... Gallardo, fully healthy, should be viewed as a substantial piece of any fantasy rotation in 2009... Gallardo seems poised to fill the role of a second or third starter in mixed leagues this year with aplomb..."- From April 14th

Review: If only he had more wins he would have been a terrific No. 2 starter in mixed leagues, but if he was your No. 3 you were still sitting pretty. Eighteenth in the NL in ERA, Gallardo was also a dominating force with a strikeout total that was fifth best in the Senior Circuit. He was also third in the circuit with a .219 BAA, no one hits the youngster, so if he can just cut down on the walks (the second worst total in the NL with 94) he just might be an ace in 2010.
Grade: Home Run

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
Stats at time of piece: 7-9, 3.82 ERA, 111 Ks, 1.30 WHIP in 122.2 IP
2009 stats: 15-12, 3.47 ERA, 198 K, 1.23 WHIP in 218 IP
Quote: "If he could just lower his walk rate a bit more to the point that it was better than "average" we could actually see a pitcher from Colorado who isn't merely worthy of rostering, but one you could count on heavily in fantasy circles as a legitimate third starter. Honestly, we are about at that point even if he continues issuing a few too many free passes."- From July 21st

Review: Jimenez hasn't quite got the walks under control as he finished sixth in the league with 85, but that was 18 less than last season despite the fact that he tossed 19.1 more innings. As for his performance, it took off in the second half, and I don't use that term lightly as Jimenez went 9-3 in his last 15 starts as he posted a 3.08 ERA, 1.12 WHIP an a 8.53 K/9 mark. I almost gave myself a "triple" here because I only suggested him as a third starting option - he was actually a No. 1 option over his final 15 appearances.
Grade: Home Run

John Lannan, Nationals
Stats at time of piece: 4-5, 3.38 ERA, 42 K, 1.34 WHIP in 85.1 IP
2009 stats: 9-13, 3.88 ERA, 89 K, 1.35 WHIP in 206.1 IP
Quote: "If you can put up with the utter lack of Ks, and the fact that his ERA is almost certain to rise a bit moving forward, he might make a nice depth play in mixed leagues. Still, despite the strong ERA so far, he only truly comes recommended in NL-only leagues where his deficiencies aren't as easily noticeable."- From June 18th

Review: The ERA did rise as predicted, but it was still better than guys like Chad Billingsley (4.03), Jason Marquis (4.04) and Joe Blanton (4.05). Obviously a mark under four leaves you relevant in mixed leagues. As for his WHIP, it wasn't great, but at least it was better than the NL average of 1.38 and it was slightly better over his last 15 appearances at 1.29. Still, 89 strikeouts are a dreadful total for a hurler who logs over 200-innings and it was a lower total than National League closers Jonathan Broxton (114) and Rafael Soriano (102) produced.
Grade: Home Run

Jon Lester, Red Sox
Stats at time of piece: 2-3, 6.31 ERA, 49 K, 1.57 WHIP in 41.1 IP
2009 stats: 15-8, 3.41 ERA, 225 K, 1.23 WHIP in 203.1 IP
Quote: "Nothing he has flashed this year suggests that last year's innings have taken their toll, but you still might want to file it away in the back of your mind. Buying low on Lester would be advisable if his current owner is fed up with his poor ratios, things will almost certainly turn around, especially in the ratio categories for this Sox lefty."- From May 14th

Review: Yahtzee. Lester was a huge victim of some inopportune luck in the early going, and his numbers reflected that across the board. The worm finally turned when the calendar flipped to June, and over his last 21 starts to close the year the numbers were ace-like as he went 8-3 with a 2.35 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and a 9.85 K/9 mark. Hopefully you listened.
Grade: Home Run

Ryan Madson, Phillies
Stats at time of piece: 2-1, 2.22 ERA, 31 K, 1.06 WHIP in 28.1 IP
2009 stats: 5-5, 3.26 ERA, 78 K, 1.23 WHIP in 77.1 IP
Quote: "Given the profound struggles of Brad Lidge thus far, Madson really should have been closing for about a month now... Madson has also been a bit unlucky, if you can believe it, and that suggests that he could possibly be able to sustain the growth he has shown thus far over the course of the entire season provided he can continue to keep the long ball in check."- From June 9th

Review: The Phillies foolishly continued to roll with Brad Lidge for most of the year, and I have gone over the stupidity of that move at length so I won't rehash it all again. As a result, the saves never really showed up, though 10 isn't an awful total for a "setup" guy. Madson did see his ERA and WHIP rise after the piece was written, but both marks are right in line with his level of production from 2007-08 (3.05 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). Madson did post the best K/9 mark of his career at 9.08, more than a batter and a half above his career mark (7.34). As a result, he also posted the best K/BB mark ever (3.55) so despite a three year high in BABIP (.320) his overall effort was a huge success.
Grade: Triple

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
Stats at time of piece: 1-0, 3.43 ERA, 23 K, 1.24 WHIP and 12 saves in 21 IP
2009 stats: 2-2, 3.63 ERA, 45 K, 1.15 WHIP and 24 saves in 52 IP
Quote: "...Qualls figures to continue to operate as one of the more effective closers in baseball. With a K-rate that has spiked, as well as even more pinpoint control than we have seen from him previously, Qualls seems poised to deliver on the promise that he showed the past four seasons when he was one of the most effective middle relievers in baseball."- From June 2nd

Review: While injury derailed him late in the year, Qualls was a fine closer for the D'backs this season as he produced 24 saves, almost double the total of 15 that he entered the year with. That alone gives him a strong grade. The bump in strikeouts that he witnessed the previous two years regressed slightly from the eight and a half mark down to 7.79, though that was still better than his career 7.34 rate. However, the biggest news was a halving of his BB/9 mark all the way down to 1.21 leading to a terrific 6.43 K/BB rate, the best in baseball amongst hurlers who tossed 50 or more innings.
Grade: Home run

Chris Volstad, Marlins
Stats at time of piece: 4-7, 4.75 ERA, 61 K, 1.30 WHIP in 83.1 IP
2009 stats: 9-13, 5.21 ERA, 107 K, 1.43 WHIP in 159 IP
Quote: "As often happens with youngsters, he is just 22 years old, too much was expected from Volstad this season... Volstad doesn't have a single Triple-A start under his belt, so expecting him to win 15 games with a 3.00 ERA this season was never realistic... When the home runs allowed begin to recede that ERA of his should come down, and if he can continue to avoid walking batters while keeping his strike out rate at its current level he could easily have a nice turnaround the rest of the way. Remember though, we are speaking of a gradual return and not a full snap back to posting an ERA below three like he did last season."- From June 17th

Review: Well, at least Volstad got that Triple-A start this season. Even my modest expectations for a rebound were completely unfounded. Volstad imploded in the second half with a 6.79 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP over his last 11 starts in a truly awful performance. The homers allowed never disappeared, he allowed 12 in his last 51.2 innings, and with a 1.03 K/BB mark over his final 11 trips to the hill he was flat out dreadful.
Grade: Double

Jarrod Washburn, Tigers
Stats at time of piece: 3-4, 3.22 ERA, 44 K, 1.18 WHIP in 64.1 IP
2009 stats: 9-9, 3.78 ERA, 100 K, 1.19 WHIP in 176 IP
Quote: "He has been nothing but league average in ERA and WHIP since 2006, and we mentioned how he hasn't posted enough "W's" to be relevant. Add in what is well below average K-rate, and the propensity to allow the long ball, and there just isn't much to recommend here even with his solid start to the year... if your spider-senses are tingling telling you that something is wrong (that's a Spiderman reference if you didn't pick it up), it's best to listen and move Washburn before the regression occurs."- From June 2nd

Review: Washburn was moved to the Tigers after a terrific run with the Mariners, and the fireworks began. In eight starts he emerged with a "W" just one time, posted a 7.33 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP and had a 1.31 K/BB mark while allowing 12 homers in just 43 innings pitched. What else needs to be said?
Grade: Home Run

Jered Weaver, Angels
Stats at time of piece: 5-2, 2.26 ERA, 63 K, 1.00 WHIP in 75.2 IP
2009 stats: 16-8, 3.75 ERA, 174 K, 1.24 WHIP in 211 IP
Quote: "Only once in his life has Jered thrown more than 180-innings, and that was back in 2006, so there has to be some concern given to the fact that he is on pace to go well over 220-innings this season. Still, not much in his pitching line, other than his BABIP and his LOB percentage, really stands out as being at a rate that Weaver cannot sustain moving forward... there is no reason to expect Weaver to fall off a cliff like so many other hurlers who start out fast and then peter out over the course of the second half of the season."- From June 4th

Review: This is a matter of perspective. Overall his numbers were terrific as he was one of only seven hurlers in the AL who threw 200 innings, with an ERA below 3.80 and more than 170 punchouts. However, his second half certainly was a step down from his early season work (6-5, 4.47 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). We can sit here and debate just how right I was with my prediction (his .288 BABIP and 76.2 LOB percentage were his best marks in three years), but to avoid the appearance of impropriety, I just gave myself a "double."
Grade: Double

OVERALL

I reviewed 15 pitchers over the course of the 2009 season, and here is how I ended up in the prediction game.

Single: none
Double: two
Triple: four
Home Run: nine