Spring Preview: Chicago Cubs

January 29, 2009 8:32am CST

Will new ownership erase the Curse? Cubs fans will be more willing to answer "yes" if the Ricketts family signs off on a Jake Peavy deal. Thus far, the offseason has included one big bat and a series of lesser trades that has shaken up the team's fringes. A strong core remains, and fantasy owners will find plenty to enjoy, even if Peavy doesn't eventually join the rotation.

Projected Lineup
LF: Alfonso Soriano
2B: Aaron Miles/Mike Fontenot
1B: Derrek Lee
3B Aramis Ramirez
RF: Milton Bradley
C: Geovany Soto
CF: Reed Johnson/Kosuke Fukudome
SS: Ryan Theriot

Projected Pitchers
SP: Carlos Zambrano
SP: Ryan Dempster
SP: Ted Lilly
SP: Rich Harden
SP: Sean Marshall
CL: Carlos Marmol
SU: Kevin Gregg

Position Battles
Fontenot hit .305 in 2008 and owns a career .298 average and .379 OBP against right-handed pitchers. The Mark DeRosa deal to the Indians was mainly about money, but the Cubs also wanted to assure Fontenot of at-bats in 2009. Miles has a shot to earn the starting job, but the recent Ronny Cedeno deal means he will also need to serve as Theriot's backup at shortstop. At this point, we expect Fontenot to at least start against right-handers.

Fukudome started out hot in 2008, but he wore down with each passing month. Thus, Lou Piniella will use him in a center field platoon with Reed Johnson. Speedster Joey Gathright may also see time in center if those two men struggle. That trio will also be called on to handle right field as soon as Bradley's body begins to inevitably break down.

Marshall was considered to be the favorite for the No. 5 spot before the Aaron Heilman trade. A Peavy deal would obviously knock both pitchers out of that equation. If the Cubs don't land Peavy, Marshall would need to hold off Heilman, Chad Gaudin, Jeff Samardzija, Angel Guzman, Kevin Hart, and rookie Mitch Atkins for the final rotation spot. Fantasy owners, especially NL-only managers, will also want to know those names for when Harden predictably misses time.

Piniella hasn't handed the closer's role to Marmol, even though he seems like the obvious choice with Wood gone. Gregg notched 61 saves for the Marlins over the last two seasons and will provide Marmol with competition for the ninth inning job. We fully expect Marmol to win.

Breakout Players
From a fantasy perspective, Marmol arguably qualifies for this section. He hasn't picked up saves in the past and therefore hasn't been a huge help to fantasy leagues. What Marmol has done is generally tear through bats over the last two seasons. He has posted K/9 rates of 12.5 and 11.8 and BAA of .169 and .135. Marmol does own two flaws which threaten to hinder his ascension. One, he walks too many batters (41 in 87.1 innings last year). Two, he is susceptible to homers. Marmol is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and he served up 10 homers in 2008. He has the skills to be an elite closer, but we may need to settle for a decent No. 2 option.

As outlined above, Marshall may not find an opening in the rotation, but there is potential if he does wiggle into a spot. The lefty bumped up his K/9 rate to 8.0 and turned down his WHIP (1.27) last season. He is trending in the right direction and has already shown an ability to work at or under a 4.00 ERA. If the Peavy trade doesn't happen, Harden breaks down, Zambrano's arm falls off, or Marshall simply works his way into the rotation, this southpaw could churn out double-digit wins and over 100 whiffs along with solid averages.

The lineup is stacked with too many well-known names for us to dig up potential sleepers, but we will note that Piniella continues to toy with the idea of moving Soriano down in the lineup. Theriot would be the logical choice to move to leadoff, which would give him more upside.

Don't Overpay
Lee has hit only 20 and 22 homers over the last two seasons, and the 33-year-old first baseman still owns only one 100-run season (2005) and only one 100-RBI campaign (2005). He also doesn't steal many bases any more (eight and six in the last two years). So, what are you paying for? Lee is a decent bet to hit .295-20-90-90-5 in 2009, but those digits don't fair that well at a power-packed fantasy position. The veteran slugger isn't going to hurt you, but fantasy owners need to realize he's a clear tier below guys like Justin Morneau and Prince Fielder and not that far ahead of someone like Adam LaRoche.

Three pieces of the rotation carry cautionary tales. Dempster was strong throughout 2008 and is generally believable, but fantasy owners shouldn't pay for a sub-3.00 ERA and 17 wins. As long as you are reasonable about his outlook (14 wins and a 3.75 ERA, for instance), you won't get burned.

Zambrano is only 27, but his shoulder may be going on 47. He worked over 209 innings in five straight seasons from 2003-07, and he ran into shoulder issues last year. Zambrano still gutted his way to 188.2 innings and generally got the job done, but his K/9 rate has slid from 8.8 to 7.4 to 6.2 over the last three seasons. Not surprisingly, his average fastball velocity has also dipped during that time. Zambrano is no longer the wild, power pitcher of old, and he has also lost his ace status. He carries much, much more concern than upside for 2009.

Do we even need to explain why fantasy owners shouldn't overpay for Harden? The right-hander posted a 1.77 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 11.3 K/9 over his 12 starts with the Cubs in 2008. Yes, he has ace stuff, but will he stay healthy for 25 starts in 2009? 20? 15? Over the last four seasons, Harden has made 22, nine, seven, and 25 appearances, and he has already bowed out of the WBC due to (gasp!) shoulder issues.

Rookie Watch
Trades have gutted a chunk of the Cubs minor league system, and they could give away even more young talent if they deal for Peavy. Still, there are two names worth considering. Samardzija jumped to the big leagues last July, and he posted a 2.28 ERA over 26 relief appearances. The Cubs will apparently try him out at a starter, but the path is crowded and he would likely end up back at Triple-A. If the tall right-hander sticks in a bullpen role, Samardzija and his wonderful fastball could earn a key role and some holds for 6x6 owners.

Micah Hoffpauir burned a lot of gas driving between Iowa and Chicago last season. He also crushed a lot of pitches at both stops. Hoffpauir hit .362-25-100 with a 1.145 OPS over 71 games at Triple-A and .362 in the bigs. He turns 29 on March 1 and is too old to be considered a prospect, but he still has rookie status. At worst, Hoffpauir will take over Daryle Ward's limited role at a backup at first base and corner outfield spots. If an injury hits Lee or Bradley, though, this potent left-handed bat could help out NL-only fantasy teams. His low walk rate suggests the batting average will drop, but Hoffpauir is worth keeping an eye on this spring.

Injury Notes
Harden has some minor tearing in his shoulder. The issue hasn't required surgery and didn't keep the Cubs from picking up his $7 million option. However, he has opted out of the WBC and is not a lock to be ready for spring training. Harden says he will be fit for opening day, but one look at his history should tell you how certain we feel about that diagnosis.

Zambrano's shoulder caused issues throughout 2008, and he was awful in August (7.43 ERA), September (7.08), and his only playoff outing (seven runs). He did not undergo surgery, but we're interested to see how he looks this spring.

Gregg had left knee issues late last season and underwent offseason surgery. The rehab is not expected to linger into the spring, but the situation is worth noting.