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Spring Preview: Baltimore Orioles

January 28, 2009 8:01am CST

One could look at this club and offer that, other than a few parts, this team is a wasteland of fantasy mediocrity. While that position may end up being accurate when things are all said and done, an optimist might look at this situation as one rife with potential being that there are a number of spots open for the taking, which could represent some nice fantasy value in 2009.

Projected Lineup
2B: Brian Roberts
3B: Melvin Mora
RF: Nick Markakis
1B: Aubrey Huff
DH: Luke Scott
CF: Adam Jones
SS: Cesar Izturis
LF: Felix Pie
C: Gregg Zaun

Projected Pitchers
SP: Jeremy Guthrie
SP: Koji Uehara
SP: Mark Hendrickson
SP: ???
SP: ???
CL: George Sherrill
SU: Chris Ray

Position Battles
As you can tell from the list of starting pitchers above, this is one situation that is, as they say, completely up for grabs. Let's take a look at the contenders.

Guthrie: Two straight years with an ERA below 3.75 and a WHIP below 1.25. The unquestioned ace of the staff.

Uehara: A Japanese import who has yet to throw his first pitch in America. You can read more about him in the piece entitled Insignificant Singings?.

Hendrickson: A career 5.07 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 5.02 K/9 tell the story.

And that's really it as far as guys who are locked into the starting rotation. Others who are in the mix would include the following motley crew of arms.

David Pauley: Recently picked up from the Red Sox, he is just 25 but has a 9.53 ERA in 28.1 innings in the majors.

Radhames Liz: Will likely end up in the rotation after making 17 highly unsuccessful starts last season (6.72 ERA, 1.78 WHIP in 84.1 IP).

Brad Hennessey: Signed a minor league contract with the club. He may or may not be given a chance to start after a horrid 2008 (7.81 ERA, 1.93 WHIP with the Giants over 40.1 innings).

And the walking wounded.

Danys Baez: Had elbow surgery. Hopes to be ready for camp. Whether he will attempt to start or hurl out of the pen is still up in the air.

Troy Patton: Had shoulder surgery in March of 2008. Hopes to be ready for camp.

Matt Albers: He's coming back from a torn labrum in his shoulder. Hopes to be ready for camp.

Chris Tillman: Has a wrist injury. Hopes to be ready for camp.

To say this is a volatile situation would be a massive understatement.

The O's hope Adam Jones will take a step forward in 2009.
Breakout Players
Adam Jones didn't impress as many hoped he would in his first year in Baltimore, as he hit .270 with nine home runs and 57 RBI over 477 at-bats. Still, Jones really seemed to be hitting his stride in June and July when he hit a combined .302 with five home runs, 31 RBI and 32 runs scored over 52 games. Unfortunately injury struck in August when Jones broke his foot, and when he returned to action late in the year he was clearly operating at less than 100 percent based on the results (.256-2-9-11 in 26 games). However, this might present a nice buy low opportunity for Jones, who has reportedly added a lot of muscle in the offseason in preparation for what he hopes will be a breakout campaign. If he can stay healthy and improve his hideous BB/K mark (0.21), he might have a chance at doing just that.

Luke Scott had a career-best 23 home runs last season in his first campaign of more than 375 at-bats (he had 475). Scott continued to offer feeble production against port-siders with a .215 batting average and a .702 OPS, but he was solid against righties (.269/.838). Considering that this is a career-long trend, Scott might be one of those rare players whose production actually improves if he is platooned. Regardless, Scott figures to be a consistent 20-home run bat given his 14% career HR/F rate, and if his BABIP mark of .283 climbs closer to his career .306 mark, his batting average could also rebound. Scott is a nice end game play even if his upside is limited given his faults.

Matt Wieters is the top prospect in baseball according to some scouts after he hit .355-27-91 with a 1.053 OPS last season, so of course the Orioles rewarded that belief by bringing in Gregg Zaun this offseason to catch. Zaun is 38 and really nothing more than a place holder to give Wieters a bit more developmental time before he is thrown to the wolves in a starting role. The bottom line here is that Zaun will likely accrue enough at-bats to render Wieters as nothing more than a No. 2 catcher in 2009, but that doesn't mean Matt couldn't have a hell of a second half if he is given the playing time.

Don't Overpay
George Sherrill saved 31 games in his first shot at closing last year - not bad for a guy who entered the year with four saves in his first four seasons. Along the way he struck out 58 batters in 53.1 innings, but there were also a few reasons to be concerned, such as his K/BB (1.76) and his work down the stretch (6.59 ERA, 1.76 WHIP over his last 14 appearances). Toss in the fact that former closer Chris Ray, who saved 33 games in 2006, should be completely recovered from Tommy John surgery in time for the start of the season and you can see that Sherrill certainly isn't in the clear when it comes to being able to hold down the role of closer in 2009.

Rookie Watch
Felix Pie came to the Orioles in a recent trade with the Cubs and the working model is for Pie to platoon with another new addition, Ryan Freel, in left field with Pie starting against right-handed pitching. The question is, will that allow the 23-year-old Pie the chance to finally excel in the big leagues after he's hit just .223 with all of three home runs over 260 major league at-bats? Pie has had some success in the minors, hitting .299 over 627 games, though his work at the plate includes a poor 0.39 BB/K mark that could lead to some struggles in the batting average category. Toss in the fact that he has never hit more than 15 home runs in a season or stole more than 17 bases since 2004 and it's a complete wild card in terms of whether or not he will have any fantasy relevance in 2009.

Injury Notes
Didn't we list enough injury concerns in the starting rotation discussion above? In truth, this team has about two pitchers coming off injury for every healthy arm currently under discussion to make the opening day roster, and that is one scary proposition for anyone who is an Orioles fan.

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