Five Questions

January 9, 2009 5:27pm CST

1) Was the Brewers' signing of Trevor Hoffman a good one?

Ted Carlson offered his thoughts on this question the other day, so I encourage you all to read that piece, which can be found at Hoffman Becomes a Brewer. I could regurgitate what Ted wrote but why bother - he'd laid out the case very clearly. I will, however, offer three additional thoughts.

A) I believe the signing was a good one as well. In fact, there is little reason to think that Hoffman won't pile up his normal 30 saves while posting strong ratios yet again.

B) This addition allows the club to remove Carlos Villanueva from consideration for the starting rotation while giving them time to continue to develop him out of the 'pen in either a 7th or 8th inning role. Villanueva was able to cut his BB/9 mark from 4.17 in '07 to 2.49 last year, which allowed him to go from 1.87 to 3.10 in the K/BB department. The ratios may not be there yet (4.07 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), but there is potential here.

C) Seth McClung will have a shot to return to the starting rotation where he wants to be. Over the past two seasons, McClung has been pretty solid, with a 7.52 K/9 mark, though he continues to struggle with his control (4.60 BB/9). Perhaps a more consistent role will allow him to reign in his wild tendencies. Regardless, he could be a perfectly serviceable No. 5 starter and a worthy option in NL-only leagues with just a bit more control.


2) Just how much game does Jason Giambi have left?

A lot. First, the facts that you may already be aware of:

Giambi has hit 32 or more home runs in three of the past four seasons.
Giambi has knocked in at least 87 runs in three of the past four seasons.
Giambi qualifies at DH and 1B this season after 113 games in the field last season.

However, it's more of the stuff that you may not be aware of that makes Giambi a solid target for the 2009 fantasy season.

Conventional wisdom says that Giambi will lose some home runs due to a move from Yankee Stadium to McAfee Coliseum in Oakland. The data doesn't support that position. Last year, according to Park Indices, the Yankees' home park was the fifth-best place in the AL for left-handed power hitters. Oakland was sixth, so there isn't much of a change there. In addition, Giambi's HR/F ratio has remained very steady resting between 18 percent and 22 percent in three of the past four seasons, and last year's 18 percent mark was only ever so slightly below his career 18.6 percent mark. If healthy, Giambi will hit his 30 home runs in '09 just like he has in each of the past eight seasons that he has recorded more than 400 AB.

As for the rest of his work at the plate, well, things are slowly moving in the wrong direction, but that's what happens when you are 38 years old. Though Giambi has been well below his career 0.92 BB/K mark the past two years, his totals of 0.61 and 0.68 are still solid marks that mean a complete collapse in his batting average is unlikely. In addition, the A's' offense may not be as bad as you think, as there is clearly a chance for the offense to do some damage with a middle of the order comprised of Matt Holiday, Jack Cust, and Jason Giambi. That trio of bats could produce 100 home runs and 300 RBI if everything breaks right, so don't be afraid to spend a late-round pick on Giambi if your club needs a power bat that doesn't bring with it much average.


3) Why hasn't Orlando Cabrera, a free agent, signed with a team yet?

It might be as simple as one word - greed. Cabrera was apparently searching for a huge-dollar deal this offseason, but after the Dodgers signed Rafael Furcal and Edgar Renteria went to the Giants, there really wasn't a team in desperate need of a shortstop. As a result, Cabrera has just been blowing in the wind waiting for someone to make him an offer. In fact, things have gotten so bad of late that he has even floated the idea that he would be wiling to play second base (one would think that team's in search of a second baseman would prefer to sign Orlando Hudson). See what happens when you hold out for the big bucks - sometimes you get burned.

As for what he would bring to a club, one would have to figure that he would be what he has always been, and that is a solid fielder and hitter. Consider the following points.

Over the past three years, Cabrera has hit at least .281-8-57-70-19. Do you know how many shortstops can make a similar claim? Try two, and they are pretty good players in their own right (Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes). While we aren't making the claim that Cabrera is within a thousand miles of their value, it is also telling that his overall performance has been quite strong and not something you should turn from. Think of it this way. Ramirez and Reyes are like Jessica Alba and Sofia Vergara while Cabrera is like Rachel McAdams; and while that clearly puts her/him well behind the other two/four, that doesn't mean you wouldn't take McAdams home to meet your family at the holidays. At worst, Cabrera possesses solid speed, he has stolen at least 19 bags in seven of the past eight seasons, and his batting average has also been more than acceptable reaching at least .281 in four of the past six seasons. We still believe he will end up with a starting role someplace, and with 550+ AB the production should follow.


4) Should Andy Pettitte be a prime target for teams looking for starting pitching?

He should be. The question is, where will Pettitte go now that the Yankees and he appear to have severed their relationship? There is always the chance something will be worked out between the two, but with Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy set to battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, the Yanks don't have a clear need for a starting pitcher after signing CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.

What does Pettitte have left? Though wins are transitory, Pettitte has accrued at least 14 victories in each of the past four seasons. Only six other pitchers have been able to match that. In addition, Pettitte has hurled at least 200 innings in each of the past four seasons, and only seven other hurlers have done that. On the flip side, Pettitte has posted an ERA above 4.00 in each of the past three years while his WHIP has been north of 1.40 in each stanza, so he is clearly beyond the point where he can help a squad in those key categories. Toss in the fact that it has been two years since his K/9 mark was over seven (5.89 and 6.97 the past two years), and that his BABIP mark has been at least .323 the past three years when his career mark is .316, and you can see that the end of him being an effective fantasy hurler is close. Still, if you, or a real team, is looking for an arm they can run out there every five days and feel reasonably comfortable that he will give the club a chance at victory, then Pettitte still has value.


5) Is Sean Marshall worth drafting in 2009?

As it currently sits, here is how the Cubs' top-four looks heading into the season: Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden and Ted Lilly. With the club moving Jason Marquis to the Rockies, there is now an open spot in the rotation. If the Cubs get their wish they might still fill the spot with Jake Peavy, but almost all indications seem to indicate that Peavy is staying put in San Diego. As a result, Sean Marshall becomes the leader to grab the fifth spot in the rotation. "He proved to us last year that in whatever role we put him in, and as tough as we made it on him -- sending him out, sending him back, relief, start -- he did a quality job in whatever job he was in," GM Jim Hendry said. "Sooner or later, you'd like to reward that, too."

In 2008, Marshall was more effective out of the pen (3.42 ERA in 27 appearances) than when he was used as a starter (4.15 ERA in seven starts), though being jerked around from role to role is never easy, especially for a youngster. Still, Marshall posted a 3.86 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP overall with a solid K/9 mark of 7.99, and thanks to decent control (3.17 BB/9), his K/BB ratio of 2.52 was solid. On the downside, Marshall is a bit of a fly ball pitcher, so even though his HR/F rate was just 11.4 percent last year, his HR/9 was an awful 1.24, just slightly ahead of his career 1.28 mark (in 294.1 innings). His chance of success would greatly improve if he kept the ball in the yard with a bit more success.

Marshall will have to beat out names like Jeff Samardzija, Kevin Hart, Angel Guzman and maybe Rich Hill (if he can ever find his location) for the fifth starter's role. While Marshall appears like the best bet to grab the spot, the fact that there is only one other left-handed arm in the Cubs' bullpen (Neal Cotts) means that Marshall may still yet end up in relief, so keep an eye on how things unfold in Chicago.