Trend or Mirage: Brett Favre

September 29, 2008 2:30pm CDT

"Ol' man river, that ol' man river...he just keeps rollin' along...body all achin' and wrecked with pain...that ol' man river keeps rollin' along."

The lyrics made famous in the musical "Showboat" in 1936 ring as true now as they did then. Only now instead of referring to the mighty Mississippi River, it refers to the mighty man from Mississippi: The interminable Brett Favre.

Favre has (perhaps you heard), traded in his green and gold for Gang Green, and like the Jeffersons, moved on up to a deluxe apartment in the sky. Yep, Brett donated all of his blaze orange, and camo-green attire from Wisconsin, and upgraded to fur coats, and silk opera scarves, and is now the biggest thing to hit Broadway since "Cats."

By now, this is old news, and everyone is well versed in the drama between Favre and Packers' management. Suffice to say, the exodus of the "great one" was a win-win for both the Packers and the Jets. The Packers finally had a chance to see just exactly what they got with their first-round selection in the 2005 NFL draft in Aaron Rodgers, and the Jets had the opportunity to replace "spaghettington-armed" Chad Pennington, with the rocket-armed (and proven winner) Favre. Thinking they were only a piece away from a serious playoff run, the Jets rolled the dice on Favre's time left in the league, and so far, it's been paying great dividends.

Career:

1991 (Atlanta Falcons): 2 games, 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions.

1992 (Green Bay Packers): 15 games, 3,227 yards, 18 touchdowns, 13 interceptions.

1993 (Green Bay Packers): 16 games, 3,303 yards, 19 touchdowns, 24 interceptions.

1994 (Green Bay Packers): 16 games, 3,882 yards, 33 touchdowns, 14 interceptions.

1995 (Green Bay Packers): 16 games, 4,413 yards, 38 touchdowns, 13 interceptions.

1996 (Green Bay Packers): 16 games, 3,899 yards, 39 touchdowns, 13 interceptions.

1997 (Green Bay Packers): 16 games, 3,867 yards, 35 touchdowns, 16 interceptions.

1998 (Green Bay Packers): 16 games, 4,212 yards, 31 touchdowns, 23 interceptions.

1999 (Green Bay Packers): 16 games, 4,091 yards, 22 touchdowns, 23 interceptions.

2000 (Green Bay Packers): 16 games, 3,812 yards, 20 touchdowns, 16 interceptions.

2001 (Green Bay Packers): 16 games, 3,921 yards, 32 touchdowns, 15 interceptions.

2002 (Green Bay Packers): 16 games, 3,658 yards, 27 touchdowns, 16 interceptions.

2003 (Green Bay Packers): 16 games, 3,361 yards, 32 touchdowns, 21 interceptions.

2004 (Green Bay Packers): 16 games, 4,088 yards, 30 touchdowns, 17 interceptions.

2005 (Green Bay Packers): 16 games, 3,881 yards, 20 touchdowns, 29 interceptions.

2006 (Green Bay Packers): 16 games, 3,885 yards, 18 touchdowns, 18 interceptions.

2007 (Green Bay Packers): 16 games, 4,155 yards, 28 touchdowns, 15 interceptions.


GOOD NEWS

Amazingly, Favre is now playing in his 18th season in the NFL, and dating back to 1992, his 257 consecutive starts (the holy grail of durability) spans a jaw-dropping 16 consecutive seasons. Not only has his body defied science, physics, and dianetics, but also he has produced at top levels all along this long and crazy ride. Case in point, just peek at his last season in Green Bay. After taking a beating over the last 17 years by a who's who of defensive lineman, linebackers, and rabid opposing fans, Favre still managed to turn in a Pro Bowl caliber season by tossing 28 touchdowns and over 4,000 yards. In fact, if you toss out this early 2008 season, and his rookie season where he didn't really see any meaningful action, he's averaged 3,853 yards and 28 touchdowns per season. Most quarterbacks would take that kind of production in a single season to the bank by leveraging it for a fat contract. Favre "only" managed to produce those fat numbers over an entire career that thus far, has been longer than Don McLean's song "American Pie."

Other than digesting the tome that is an NFL playbook, Favre's transition to the Big Apple could be described as fairly smooth. Sure his southern accent makes him stick out like a sore thumb in the Bronx, but as long as he keeps producing the wins, the Jets faithful won't mind.

The Jets' front office made big strides in beefing up their offensive line by bringing in Alan Faneca and Damien Woody to team up with incumbents Nick Mangold and D'Brickashaw Ferguson, giving them four former first-round picks on their offensive line. It also helps that former Favre pal (and blocking tight end) Bubba Franks has joined the party on the revamped line. Even though Favre has already absorbed 10 sacks through four games this season (compared with 15 all of last year), this line has protected him just enough for him to put him on pace for 3,728 yards and 48 touchdowns (just another year at the office). Even without his six-touchdown explosion against the Cardinals this past Sunday, Favre was still on pace for 3,445 yards and 32 touchdowns. It would seem that life in New York is treating Brett well.

Favre was eased into the game plan the first couple of weeks, averaging 188 yards passing and 1.5 touchdowns per game. Recently, however, head coach Eric Mangini has removed the training wheels and allowed Favre to let 'er rip, which has allowed Favre to average 280 yards and 4.5 touchdowns over the last two contests. And what better way to keep the good times coming than facing the Bengals, Raiders, Chiefs, and Rams in four of the Jets' next five matchups.


BAD NEWS

The sacks given up by this high-priced and highly-talented offensive line is a bit troublesome, especially considering they are setting the pace for Favre to get sacked 40 times, which would tie the veteran's career record from 1992. Let's face it... Favre is no spring chicken, and his consecutive starts streak could be put in jeopardy from being pancaked by 300-pound linemen a few times per game.

Seeing how the line has produced thus far, one has to question which might come first; Favre getting sacked 40+ times, or him breaking his season-mark for interceptions (29) by forcing balls into coverage just to avoid taking the sack (even though he's currently on pace for only 16 picks).

Running back Thomas Jones simply must take better advantage of his offensive line and start producing at a better clip than his current average of 64 yards per game (3.8 yards per carry average). In doing so, and moving the chains, it should allow Favre additional plays to carve up defenses and continue his memorable season thus far.


VERDICT

Yes, the offensive line needs to jell together to keep Favre upright. But like all units that have some new pieces, it takes more than a few games. Already, Favre is paying big dividends in New York, and with more games working together, this line should do a more effective job at protecting Favre.

With a very winnable, and dare we say "easy" quarter of the season coming up, Favre should continue his streak of good production, thereby solidifying his output as a trend.

That news should bring smiles to the faces of Favre owners, and have them proudly displaying their "I (Heart) NY" bumper stickers.