Year in Review – San Francisco Giants

November 13, 2008 9:05am CST

We will be taking a look around all 30 major league teams and see which players and pitchers failed, which excelled and which youngsters you might want to keep in mind as you begin to prepare for your 2009 Fantasy Baseball draft.


HITTERS

Fantasy Flop - Aaron Rowand
.271-13-70-57-2 in 549 AB

Honestly, Rowand was not a flop at all, except, that is, for those of you out there that had unreasonable expectations for him in his first year in San Francisco. Let's harken back to our time in high school and pose an SAT-type question: which of the following four options stick out?

2005: .270-13-69-77-16
2006: .262-12-47-59-10
2007: .309-27-89-105-6
2008: .271-13-70-57-2

It was always obvious that Rowand's 2007 season would be a career-best and that he had no chance of duplicating those numbers in 2008. Still, many ignored history and drafted Rowand too early anyway. For their exuberance they were rewarded with barely a replacement-level effort. Even worse, as the season wore on Rowand's bat went dormant. Besides hitting just .242 over his last 62 games, Rowand vanished in September with a .217 mark in 23 games. While a batter can occasionally still be productive with an average that low, Rowand wasn't, as he knocked in - remarkably - just one run in his final 23 games. The Giants got the leadership they were looking for when they signed him to a five-year deal, but Rowand's fantasy owners were most likely asking for a refund.

Fantasy Find - Fred Lewis
.282-9-40-81-21 in 468 AB

Lewis, in his first full season in the majors, overcame a nagging foot injury that hampered him all year (he had surgery in September and should be fine for the start of '09), to steal 21 bases with a 75 percent success rate. He also produced a decent batting average and a solid runs-scored total to give him a lot of value in deep mixed leagues. His accomplishments came after he was expected to share playing time with Dave Roberts, who ended up injured. As a result, Lewis was drafted very late or maybe not at all, depending on the depth of your league. On the plus side, he hit .331 with 20 doubles at home, leading to a superb .914 OPS, though his performance on the road also stood out, but for the wrong reasons (.233 with a .668 OPS). Speaking of his average, Lewis posted a .367 BABIP mark, an extremely high number, but right in line with his .366 career mark in 636 AB. Given the probability that that number will regress moving forward, Lewis will need to improve his ability to put the bat on the ball if he wishes to maintain a solid batting average. A 26.5 percent strikeout rate is far too high for a player that would be lucky to hit 15 home runs given his decided groundball tendencies (1.95 G/F ratio). There appears to be room for growth here, but it could be a somewhat bumpy ride to get there.

Youngster to Watch in '09 - Pablo Sandoval
.345-3-24-24-0 in 145 AB

No matter where this guy has played he has hit, and though there is as of yet no certainty as to which position he will play in 2009 (it could be first base or third base, along with some catcher), he figures to be in line for 400+ AB, even if it's a mix and match scenario. Why should that matter to you? Because he can rake. In 1,761 minor league at-bats, Sandoval has hit .303, and though he has never even spent one day in Triple-A, his ability to consistently put the barrel of the bat on the ball is superb, as can easily be seen in his major league line. Sandoval batted a stellar .383 against right-handed pitching, and though he fell to just .237 against lefties, the good news is that he struck out just three times in 38 AB against southpaws. Speaking of strikeouts, Sandoval had 14, or one for every 10.36 AB, a superb ratio that speaks to his ability to put he ball in play. Unfortunately, he hasn't met too many pitches that he doesn't think he can hit, as can clearly be seen in his scant four walks, which led to a 0.29 BB/K mark. Some hitters can succeed at that level, but clearly a bit more patience at the plate couldn't hurt.


PITCHERS

Fantasy Flop - Barry Zito
10-17, 5.15 ERA, 120 K, 1.60 WHIP in 180 IP

As was the case with Rowand, people shouldn't have expected much from Zito heading into 2008. Still, even those who didn't really like the guy had to be shocked to see the depths that he fell to. Coming off his worst full season (11-13, 4.53 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), Zito sunk to unheard of depths in '08, posting the worst win total, ERA, WHIP, BB/9 (5.10), K/BB (1.18) and BAA (.270) of his career. He also failed to hurl at least 195 innings for the first time as a full-time starter, and in fact after sox-straight 200-inning efforts with the A's, he has failed to reach that mark in either season as a Giant. We could break down a ton of numbers to show just how badly he struggled in 2008, but one number really speaks to the issues: 5.10, which was Zito's BB/9 mark. His previous full season low was 4.03 in 2006, and Zito finished last in baseball amongst pitchers who hurled at least 162 innings. Perhaps not all hope is lost, as he rebounded somewhat over his final 13 starts, going 6-5 with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP, but even those numbers are barely passable. Zito did finish on a roll, with a 3.15 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over his final five starts, but unless his control is pin-point - which was rarely the case in '08 - Zito will continue to struggle.

Fantasy Find - Brian Wilson
3-2, 4.62 ERA, 67 K, 1.44 WHIP with 41 saves in 62.1 IP

Wilson entered 2008 as the untested, first-time closer for the Giants, and all he did was go out and reward those that had faith in him with 41 saves, tying Brad Lidge for second in the NL. While the saves were fantastic, the ride was often tumultuous. Wilson never met a mess that he didn't like, and in fact, he created most of them. Wilson was one of only three relievers who saved 30 games and had a WHIP above 1.30 (the others were Francisco Cordero and George Sherrill), and his 4.62 ERA enabled him to be one of only two (George Sherrill) to save 30 games with an ERA above 3.80. Wilson, who throws gas (his average fastball was about 96 mph), struck out 9.67 batters per nine innings, but like many hard throwers he walked far too many batters (4.04 BB/9), leading to the elevated WHIP. Still, not matter what the ratios, when you draft a guy late and he goes out and produces 41 saves, you really have no reason to complain.

Youngster to Watch in '09 - Jonathan Sanchez
9-12, 5.01 ERA, 157 K, 1.45 WHIP in 158 IP

Sanchez has pitched in the majors for three years, but due to the fact that he was a reliever his first two seasons, he has thrown a grand total of 250 innings with the Giants. The lefty hurler had a strong first half in '08 racking up 115 K in 111 IP while going 8-5 with a 3.97 ERA. Unfortunately, he collapsed down the stretch (1-7, 7.47 ERA, 1.66 WHIP) due to a shoulder injury and possibly fatigue (he hadn't thrown 125 innings since 2005). One of the major reasons for the collapse was the fact that he walked 4.27 batters per nine innings (an issue that all three pitchers on this list need to address). With the inability to control the strike zone, Sanchez was unable to consistently produce outs despite nearly a K per inning. On the plus side, Sanchez was able to keep the ball in the ballpark thanks to a manageable 8.4 percent HR/F mark, which helped to offset a merely average G/F ratio of 1.10. Given his outright collapse in the second half, it is difficult to adequately predict what his 2009 efforts might call forth, though a comparison to Oliver Perez, both in the upside and the downside, can easily be made.