Year in Review – Colorado Rockies

November 12, 2008 8:06am CST

We will be taking a look around all 30 major league teams to see which players and pitchers failed, which excelled, and which youngsters you might want to keep in mind as you begin to prepare for your 2009 fantasy baseball draft.


HITTERS
Fantasy Flop - Troy Tulowitzki .263-8-46-48-1 in 377 AB

A breakout star in 2007 (.291-24-99-104-7), Tulowitzki was hampered by injury in 2008, namely a significant injury to his quadriceps that held him to just 137 major league ABs prior to the start of July. When Tulowitzki did play he looked nothing at all like the All-Star caliber performer Rockies fans had witnessed a mere season earlier, as he hit .161 with two home runs in his first 35 games to possibly claim the title of being the worst hitter in baseball through June. However, he blazed in July, hitting .418, and over his final 226 ABs the Tulo of old reemerged with a .327 average and a .858 OPS. Overall, his batting average fell (.028 points), as did his OBP (.027) and SLG (.078), thanks in no small part to a substantial decrease in his BABIP from .336 to .291, and his HR/F rate plummeted as well (from 13.1% to 6.7%). Given those numbers it is a bit surprising to hear that his BB% improved (from 8.6% to 9.2%) while his K% went down (from 21.3% to 14.9%) since better control of the strike zone should mean increased production at the plate. So why did he struggle, other than the obvious caveat that he was injured? Honestly, despite the poor overall numbers, Tulowitzki actually showed some incremental growth in ’08, which bodes very well for his future exploits given a clean bill of health.

Fantasy Find - Chris Iannetta .264-18-65-50-0 in 333 AB

Iannetta had always flashed a power bat in the minors with 33 home runs and 141 RBI in 236 games, but there was a concern about whether or not he would be able to transition his .303 average to the majors. Alas, he failed in that respect in 2008, but given his huge power numbers, NL-only owners couldn't have cared less. Iannetta ended up third in the NL in home runs from the catcher position and sixth in RBI despite piling up just the 10th most ABs in the Senior Circuit at the position. Iannetta did enjoy a bit more success at home with 11 home runs at Coors (seven on the road), but he actually hit .030 points higher on the road (.280), which led to a nearly identical OPS at home (.893) and on the road (.897). Also a positive sign for Iannetta was that he was extremely consistent, hitting .274-9-34 with a .896 OPS before the All-Star break and .255-9-31 with a .892 OPS thereafter. Like most power hitting catchers he strikes out too much (27.6% K-rate), but he did walk enough to still produce an encouraging 0.61 BB/K mark. The real question as to his production will come down two things: (a) will be able to increase his at-bat total, and if he does, (b) will he be able to maintain his high 18.2% HR/F ratio. If he does, he is a great bet to hit at least 20 home runs in 2009.

Youngster to Watch in ‘09 - Ian Stewart
.259-10-41-33-1 in 266 AB

With Matt Holliday already out of town and Garrett Atkins also rumored to be packing his suitcase, Ian Stewart is in line to be given his first chance at a true starting gig in the majors. Just what position he will play is still to be determined (he saw action at third base (65) and second base (12) in ’08), but he would appear to be the top option at the hot corner if Atkins is eventually moved. Stewart, a first round pick in 2003 who was once considered to be the top prospect in the Rockies farm system, has enjoyed a fair amount of success in the minors leagues, hitting .293 with a .898 OPS and 101 home runs in 601 career games. The question is, can he translate that success to the bigs or will he end up being the classic Four-A player (too good for the minors, not good enough for he majors)? Looking at his efforts in 2008, that question is still up in the air. After hitting less than his weight in June (.182), Stewart was one of the top hitters in baseball in July with a .432 mark, and in 40 July and August games he batted .338-6-35, signaling that he had arrived. However, as soon as he bought a house it was back to looking for rentals, as he was abysmal in September (.139 with a .434 OPS in 23 games). While his power is legit, there are reasons to be extremely concerned. His eye at the plate is poor (0.32 BB/K) and his contract rate terrible thanks to a completely unpalatable 35.3% K rate. As a result, even an absurdly high BABIP mark of .364 couldn’t save his average. Unless he does a better job putting the bat on the ball, Stewart might be relegated to being nothing more than a part-time player in the majors.


PITCHERS
Fantasy Flop - Jeff Francis 4-10, 5.01 ERA, 94 K, 1.48 WHIP in 143.2 IP

In what might have been the easiest call since predicting Obama to dominate in the Electoral College, Jeff Francis fell from being fantasy relevant to completely irrelevant in mere months. Due to his terrible work in ‘08, perhaps you forgot that Francis was a 17-game winner with 165 Ks and a 4.22 ERA in 2007 or that he was also quite solid in 2006 with 13 victories, a 4.16 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. However, Francis was pathetic before the All-Star break in ’08 with a 5.67 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 1.53 HR/9 mark in the first half (his 1.32 overall mark was the worst number since he became a full time starter). In seven starts after the break before he was finally shut down to due ongoing soreness in his shoulder, Francis actual found his stride, posting a 3.50 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP with a 1.85 BB/9 mark. While it was never announced that there was anything serious going on, it was clear that he wasn’t right for a large portion of the year. The fact he finished strong is encouraging, though. Despite the horrible fantasy production, Francis had a .315 BABIP, just above his .313 mark, and his K/BB of 1.92 was also near his career level of performance (2.03). In fact, many of his measures were close to his career norms, so there is hope that if he can just do a bit better job in terms of allowing hits, and especially home runs, he could rebound in ’09.

Fantasy Find - Taylor Buchholz
6-6, 2.17 ERA, 56 K, 0.95 WHIP with one save in 66.1 IP

With the recent addition of Huston Street, Buchholz’s chance to pick up any saves in 2009 appear remote, though that hardly diminishes his fantastic 2008 campaign. Buchholz transitioned fully to the bullpen and the results were fantastic, as can be clearly seen in his ratios (while he was solid at home with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP, he was flat-out filthy on the road with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP). In addition to those numbers, he also produced a solid 7.60 K/9 mark and a strong 3.11 K/BB ratio, and those type of numbers, when combined with a HR/9 mark of just 0.68 (thanks to a HR/F mark of 6.5%), portend continued success for Taylor. One negative trait is that his G/F ratio dropped to a three-year low of 0.86 as his FB% rose to 42.5%, the first time it has been over 39%. However, no longer concerned with pacing himself as he was when he started, Buchholz unleashed the fury of his pitches on unsuspecting batters, and no one had any success against him (.198 BAA for lefties, .180 for righties). The bottom line with Buchholz is that his overall work, when combined with his six vultured victories, left him as one valuable arm in NL-only leagues.

Youngster to Watch in ‘09 - Greg Reynolds
2-8, 8.13 ERA, 22 K, 1.76 WHIP in 62 IP

The Rockies' first-round selection in 2006 out of Stanford, Reynolds was on the fast track to the majors, as he has spent just 162.2 innings in the minors before being promoted to Colorado. In his time in the minors, Reynolds owns a 3.11 ERA despite a rather mediocre WHIP of 1.31 and a K/9 mark of 5.60. Despite the less than stellar work on the farm, the Rockies called up Reynolds to the big leagues and proceeded to run him out there often enough that they should have realized he was completely shell shocked. Moreover, due to the beating he suffered which included a horrific four appearance stretch that saw him last just 5.2 innings while giving up 20 earned runs (31.75 ERA) and 27 base runners (4.76 WHIP) to end the year, one could seriously question if the Rockies were trying to destroy the young man’s confidence. Even if his confidence wasn’t torched, there is simply no way to look at his performance and glean even a bit of support for the position that he will find any success in 2009 given that ha allowed 2.03 HR/9 and had a K/BB mark of 0.85. Still, he is one of the organization's top arms, and given the confidence they showed in him this season, he would appear to be in line to have a significant role with the team in ’09, though we are far from certain that such an opportunity is a good thing.