Year in Review – Arizona Diamondbacks

November 12, 2008 10:53am CST

We will be taking a look around all 30 major league teams and see which players and pitchers failed, which excelled and which youngsters you might want to keep in mind as you begin to prepare for your 2009 Fantasy Baseball draft.


HITTERS

Fantasy Flop - Chris Young
.248-22-85-85-14 in 625

Eric Byrnes (.209-6-23-28-4) battled leg issues for a large portion of the year and was limited to just 206 AB after a wonderful 2007 effort (.286-21-83-103-50). Still, there was no way he was going to repeat that effort even if healthy, and since he missed over 100 games, he isn't the choice here.

Chris Young produced a solid line with quality production in four of the five fantasy categories, failing in only the batting average category. However, he still ended up producing 10 fewer home runs and 13 fewer stolen bases than he did as a rookie in 2007, which rendered his .011 point increase in batting average completely irrelevant. Here are the facts. First, Young had a K-rate of 26.4 percent, a horrific mark. Second, his BB/K mark was therefore sub-par at 0.38. Third, for a player who has 638 of his career 1,264 AB in the leadoff role, his .306 OBP is absolutely pathetic. Fourth, lest you think his struggles were some random fluctuation, it should be pointed out that his BABIP mark was .304 in '08, slightly above the major league average and a big step up over his .282 career mark. Fifth, though he has been a decent hitter at home in his career (.262 with a .325 OBP), his work on the road has been awful (.225 with a .288 OBP). And finally, there is the vexing drop in his stolen bases from 27 to 14. The truth is that you can't steal first base, and given an OBP that barely matches the yearly batting average of Derek Jeter, Young likely won't be a consistent option in the stolen base category.

Fantasy Find - Stephen Drew
.291-21-67-91-3 in 611 AB

Stephen has that same smooth swing that his older brother possesses, and last year he used that swing to produce 49 more hits, 16 more doubles, seven more triples, nine more home runs and seven more RBI than in his first full season in 2007. That growth enabled Drew to finish sixth at the position in batting average, fourth in home runs, sixth in RBI and seventh in runs. Beyond the obvious growth, there were a couple of other data points that deserve to be mentioned. First off, his performance really took off in the second half, when he hit .326/.372/.556, numbers that any big-time slugger would be proud to call their own. Second, Drew improved his HR/F mark to 9.7 percent, right on the major league average (it was just 5.9 percent in 2007). Third, despite a dramatic increase in his average and a .020 point boost in his OBP (up top .333), his BB/K mark actually plummeted to 0.38 after a solid 0.60 mark in 2007. Clearly, Drew gave up some of his patience at the plate to drive the ball, and his fantasy owners were glad he made that choice. Whether or not he will be able to replicate last years numbers in 2009 if he maintains that approach remains to be seen.

Youngster to Watch in '09 - Justin Upton
.250-15-42-52-1 in 356 AB

Upton is just 21 years old, and not many 21 year olds can say that they have 496 big league at bats. During those nearly 500 AB, Upton hit .242-15-42, leading to a .816 OPS, but it has been one bumpy ride. Here are the facts.

(1) Upton hit .321 with 12 home runs and a 1.039 OPS at home in 2008. He hit .169 with three home runs and a .562 OPS on the road.

(2) After hitting .340 in April with five home runs and 15 RBI, Upton hit .176 with four home runs and 14 RBI in 174 AB in May and June. He then finished fairly well, hitting .284 over his final 31 games.

(3) Though he hit .264 with a .831 OPS with the bases empty, he hit .172 with a .675 OPS with RISP (87 AB).

(4) Upton had a horrific K rate of 34.0 percent, though he did manage to walk 54 times, leading to a respectable 0.41 K/BB mark. He simply must cut down the swings and misses to ever reach his potential at the plate, though there is certainly hope as he showed some real growth in his second season.

Upton will likely continue to vacillate between hot stretches and struggles until he controls the strike zone better, but at his age and given his talent, there is no reason to believe that he will eventually be anything less than an All-Star caliber player.


PITCHERS

Fantasy Flop - Micah Owings
6-9, 5.93 ERA, 87 K, 1.39 WHIP in 104.2 IP

Owings was solid in 2007, going 8-8 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, and after he started out '08 by going 4-0 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in his first five starts, the outlook was fantastic for the second-year hurler. Alas, reality set in and with each successive month of the season Owings' performance worsened before he was eventually sent to Triple-A.

May: 2-3, 4.74 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
June: 0-4, 8.22 ERA, 1.83 WHIP
July: 0-2, 11.37 ERA, 1.66 WHIP

Owings eventually came down with an injured shoulder, and though he was moved to the Reds in the Adam Dunn deal, he never actually pitched in a game for Cincinnati (he did go 2-for-4 at the plate with three RBI). So, what do we make of Owings at this point? Well, his K/9 rate did go up (from 6.25 to 7.48), though his BB/9 rate also inched upward (2.95 to 3.53) which actually led to exactly the same 2.12 K/BB mark in both seasons. The similarities don't end there. Owings' HR/9 mark was 1.20, compared to 1.18 in '07, thanks in part to virtually identical HR/F rates (10.1 and 10.2 percent). His BABIP mark did rise from .280 to .302, but the corresponding bump in his batting average against was even less (it was .261 compared to .253 in 2007). In the end, Owings didn't really perform much differently than he did in 2007 despite the drop in his fantasy numbers, though he could stand to work on keeping his fly ball rate in check (42.5 percent).

Fantasy Find - Randy Johnson
11-10, 3.91 ERA, 173 K, 1.24 WHIP in 184 IP

As amazing as this sounds off the top, the truth is that RJ was a huge risk heading into 2008 after a season of just 56.2 innings due to continuing back issues. Toss in the fact that he was 44 at the start of the year, and there were real questions about just how much the Big Unit had left. Turns out the answer was a lot. While he had "only" 173 K, the reason for that lowish number was basically because of a reduced IP total as his 8.46 K/9 mark was actually his best mark in the last three seasons in which he pitched more than 175 innings. With a strong K rate in addition solid control (2.15 BB/9), RJ's K/BB mark of 3.93 was the third-best mark in baseball for a left-hander who threw at least 162 innings (Cliff Lee, 5.00 and CC Sabathia, 4.25). While his ERA was a bit elevated, his DIPS ERA (3.63) and Component ERA (3.74) were both below his raw ERA total, which suggests that his 3.91 mark wasn't entirely earned. His days of dominating hitters start after start are long gone, but he still proved that he had plenty remaining in that left arm of his.

Youngster to Watch in '09 - Max Scherzer
0-4, 3.05 ERA, 66 K, 1.23 WHIP in 56 IP

Scherzer, the 11th overall selection in the 2006 draft, is one of the top young arms in baseball. The right-hander, who features a 95-mph fastball and a hard, sharp breaking slider, threw 56 rather effective innings for the D'backs in '08 while appearing in 16 games (seven starts). Viewed as a top of the rotation starter, many scouts worry about his ability to stay healthy long-term given his max effort delivery (he was sidelined with shoulder issues this past season). Besides posting a tremendous 10.61 K/9 mark and a strong 3.14 K/BB mark while with Arizona, Max has simply shredded opposing batters in the minor leagues with a 2.83 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and a 11.87 K/9 mark in 159.2 innings. Given that he has so thoroughly dominated minor league hitters, he has nothing left to gain from any more time down on the farm. Therefore, look for him to open 2009 as a member of the Arizona starting rotation.