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Jason Collette

Willingham, Olsen Heading North

November 14, 2008 1:54pm CST

There have been a few trades in baseball over the last few days. One trade stunned most people, and another perplexed people. The A’s landing Holliday was as shocking as the Nationals and Marlins trade was puzzling. In reality, the trade is puzzling for both parties, as it does not solve most of the unanswered questions for both clubs; rather, it creates even more questions. The only certainty from the trade is that it was made by the Marlins to avoid paying arbitration to Josh Willingham, the same reason the Mike Jacobs trade was made earlier.

From the Marlins' perspective, the trade does help address the stated priority of improving team defense, because Bonifacio is an above average defensive player. Bonifacio’s speed and complete lack of power would normally make him an ideal leadoff candidate, but his 192 major league at-bats to date have produced a .300 OBP and a 26% strikeout rate, which are more indicative of an 8th place hitter than a leadoff hitter.

Yr Lev AB R HR RBI SB BA OBP BB% K% BABIP
06 A+ 546 117 7 50 61 .321 .371 8 19 .386
07 AA 551 84 2 40 41 .285 .331 7 19 .349
08 AAA 367 49 1 29 17 .302 .387 7 17 .364
08 Maj 169 29 0 14 7 .243 .296 8 28 .333

Throughout his minor league career, Bonifacio has been a slap-hitting speed demon who has made decent contact. But in his major league audition last year, he struck out way too much and thus lost playing time to Anderson Hernandez. If Bonifacio can make better contact in 2009, it would allow the Marlins to move Hanley Ramirez down the lineup to take better advantage of his power. The increased opportunities to run for Bonifacio would make him a lock for 25 steals. While it is uncertain where the Marlins will hit Bonifacio, it is clear he is going to play second base because, frankly, it is the only spot he can play. It is no secret that Dan Uggla’s defense was awful last year, so the question now is: will Dan Uggla play another position or for another team in 2009?

Jake Smolinski and P.J. Dean are lower level prospects, with Smolinski having more upside. Smolinski was originally drafted as an infielder but has transitioned to the outfield, and the Nationals were rather aggressive with his promotion through the system. He played at three different levels in 2008, ending the season in Low A ball as a 19-year-old, which is younger than most players in that league. His statistics do not yet show the power potential that his scouting reports speak to. P.J. Dean is a former seventh round pick who has been somewhat impressive statistically in 77 professional innings, but he projects to be a back-end starter or middle reliever.

From the Nationals' perspective, they clearly needed more thump in the lineup because they had a tough time producing runs last season. They are banking on Willingham being over the back problems that cut his 2008 season short.

Yr AB R HR RBI SB BA OPS BB% K% GB% FB%
06 502 62 26 74 2 .277 .852 10 22 43 41
07 521 75 21 89 8 .265 .827 11 23 36 43
08 351 54 15 54 3 .254 .834 12 23 40 42


Willingham’s production is consistent but nothing extraordinary. Still, that is quite an improvement from Austin Kearns’ .627 OPS in 313 at-bats last year or Wily Mo Pena’s wretched .509 OPS in 195 at-bats. Willingham would also offer an insurance policy at first base when (not if) Nick Johnson goes on the disabled list. With the addition of Willingham, that gives the Nationals a glutton of outfielders with Willie Harris, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Pena, Kearns, and Willingham all on board. Expect one or two of those players to be on a different team by the start of the season, but it appears that Willingham, Milledge, and Dukes will be the starting outfield on paper for the 2009 season.

Scott Olsen's velocity took a nosedive last year.
The real key to this puzzle is the malcontent Scott Olsen. If Jim Bowden has proven one thing throughout his career it is that he is willing to forgive attitude issues if he believes in the talent. That is the case here with Olsen. Olsen had a checkered history in Miami with the law and troubles in the clubhouse, so a change of scenery could help. For all of his talent, the results have been quite inconsistent.

Yr W L ERA G IP G/F HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP LOB
06 12 10 4.04 31 181 1.2 1.2 3.7 8.3 1.30 71%
07 10 15 5.81 33 176 1.0 1.5 4.3 6.8 1.76 66%
08 8 11 4.20 33 202 0.9 1.3 3.1 5.0 1.31 72%

Not only has the performance been inconsistent, but there are some disturbing trends here for Olsen. For one, his strikeout rate has fallen dramatically over the last three seasons, from a dominating 8.3 K/9 rate to a putrid 5.0 mark. He has also gone from more of a groundball pitcher to a flyball pitcher, and his home run rates, despite pitching in Dolphins Stadium, are problematic. Given that he is more of a flyball pitcher, the infield defense in Washington will not be as helpful as it would be to other pitchers, but Milledge and Dukes will help chase down a lot of the flyballs. That said, Olsen must recover some of his dominance to be considered as a fantasy investment in 2009. His .266 BABIP last year was 34 points below his career norm, and his FIP was 82 points above his actual ERA last season. I would let another owner take the chance here, as the statistics do not warrant the investment.

With the dust settled, the Nationals and Marlins are likely handing their second base jobs over to two players known more for their speed and defense than anything they do at the plate. The Marlins created a hole in their starting rotation that they are looking to possibly fill with an even larger headache in Carl Pavano, while the Nationals have added the right-handed power bat they wanted and yet have created quite the logjam in the outfield. The Nationals are the clear winners in this trade as it stands now, but if Bonifacio can regain his contact and become a disturbance in the leadoff position, his steals make him a valuable asset. Plus, they will enhance Hanley Ramirez’s value by increasing his RBI opportunities.

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