Year in Review – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

October 21, 2008 4:23pm CDT

We will be taking a look around all 30 major league teams and see which players and pitchers failed, which excelled and which youngsters you might want to keep in mind as you begin to prepare for your 2009 Fantasy Baseball draft.


HITTERS

Fantasy Flop - Vladimir Guerrero
.303-27-91-85-5 in 541 AB

We could have gone with Chone Figgins (.276-1-22-72-34), who has seen his runs, hits, triples, home runs, RBI and steals decline two consecutive years, but we went with Vlad, and here's why. (1) Though he hit .303, that mark was his lowest since hitting .302 in his rookie season way back in 1997. (2) Though he hit 27 home runs, matching his 2007 mark, this effort tied his worst performance ever for a season in which he had more than 400 AB (he has had 10 seasons with at least 500 AB). (3) His total of 91 RBI was the first time in his career that he failed to record 100 RBI when receiving 400 AB. (4) His total of 85 runs scored was the worst mark of his career in his 10 seasons of 500+ AB. (5) With an OPS of .886, Vlad finished below .930 for the first time since his rookie season. In total it was a fine effort if you didn't overpay on draft day, but when you establish career lows in four of the five main fantasy categories you've had a down season.

Fantasy Find - Mike Napoli
.273-20-49-39-7 in 227 AB

Quick, who led AL backstops in home runs? No, it wasn't Napoli, as he actually came in second to Kelly Shoppach, who hit 21. The amazing thing here is that Napoli had only 227 AB, making him the only player in baseball that had fewer than 300 AB that hit 20 home runs. Yeah, that's right, his HR rate would have led to 44 home runs if he had received 502 AB, the total needed to qualify for the batting title. Speaking of batting average, Napoli produced the best mark of his career in '08, which he also did in OBP (.374), SLG (.586) and OPS (.960). Not just a mere slugger, Napoli also stole seven bases, which was tied for fourth at the catcher's position with Miguel Olivo. Jeff Mathis is a solid defensive catcher but the Angels gave the .194 hitting Mathis 283 AB in 2008. If 100 more of those at-bats had been tossed Napoli's way we can only imagine what type of damage he might have inflicted on opposing pitchers.

Youngster to Watch in '09 - Brandon Wood
.200-5-13-12-4 in 150 AB

Wood has been the jewel of the Angels' minor league system for years now. In 2005 he hit .321-43-115 in 130 games at High-A and was named many publications' Minor League Player of the Year. He then hit .276-25-83 in 118 games at Double-A in 2006 before hitting .272-23-77 in 111 games at Triple-A before finally getting his first taste of the majors in 2007. Unable to stick with the club at the start of the 2008 campaign, Wood went to Triple-A again and this time tore it up, hitting .296-31-84 in just 395 AB. Considering that he has been a shortstop for almost all of this time, visions of the next Cal Ripken type, i.e. a power hitting shortstop, were dancing in the Angels' heads. However, the decision was made to work him out at third base as well, and he actually ended up playing more games at the hot corner (32) than at shortstop (28) for the Angels in '08. The bottom line is that no matter where he plays he figures to produce the long ball though with one caveat - Wood strikes out like Adam Dunn. Wood has 687 K in 652 minor league games and 55 in just 183 AB at the big league level. If he picks up 500 AB in 2009 he seems a good bet to record at least 20 home runs, though his average will likely be sub-par as he racks up the punchouts.


PITCHERS

Fantasy Flop - Jon Garland
14-8, 4.90 ERA, 90 K, 1.51 WHIP in 196.2 IP

In truth, the biggest flop was probably Justin Speier, who saw his ERA almost double from 2.88 to 5.03 and his WHIP go up by roughly 50 percent, from 0.96 to 1.41. However, Speier was likely only drafted in deep AL-only leagues so he doesn't really fit the parameters of this discussion. Still, when a team wins 100 games it's pretty hard to find a flop, so we ended up selected a 14-game winner in Garland.

Garland eats innings and wins his fair share of games, and he did that again this season with his seventh straight season of at least 10 victories and 190 IP; something only he and two others have done (Javier Vazquez and Mark Buehrle). So why was Garland a flop? First off we would have to say because there were some unreasonable expectations for him considering that he was going to a great team in Anaheim (he wasn't just going to become a star because of the new team). However, more germane to the point is the fact that his work on the hill was actually very poor. Hs ERA was a career-worst for a full season, as was his WHIP, and he permitted batters to hit an amazing .303 off him (.029 points above his career mark). He also produced a career-worst 4.12 K/9 mark, leading to his worst K/BB ratio (1.53) since 2004. Worse than major league average ratios and a pathetic strikeout rate shouldn't simply be overlooked because of a pitcher winning 14 games; and in this case that contribution wasn't nearly enough to cancel out his deficient work elsewhere.

Fantasy Find - Ervin Santana
16-7, 3.49 ERA, 214 K, 1.12 WHIP in 219 innings

Joe Saunders (17-7, 3.41 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) was also an out-of-nowhere big-time contributor, but this category clearly belongs to Ervin. Santana went 16-8 in 2006 but in 2007 he regressed across the board, going 7-14 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.55 WHIP that had him in a major battle this spring just to retain the fifth spot in the Angels' starting rotation. Due to injuries early on, the Angels decided to stick with Santana as one of their five starters, and that decision paid off handsomely with career bests in wins (tying his 2006 mark), IP, K, ERA, WHIP and BAA (.237) to name just a few categories. Just how great was Erving this season? We've made this comparison elsewhere but it bears repeating here once again. Who was the best Santana this year, Johan or Ervin?

Johan: 16-7, 2.53 ERA, 206 K, 1.15 WHIP, 3.27 K/BB
Ervin: 16-7, 3.49 ERA, 214 K, 1.12 WHIP, 4.55 K/BB

When you make this comparison it can be argued that Ervin came out on top. Meaning Santana was one massive fantasy find for those of you who took the gamble on him late on draft day.

Youngster to Watch in '09 - Jose Arredondo
10-2, 1.62 ERA, 55 K, 1.05 WHIP in 61 IP

The future of closer extraordinaire Francisco Rodriguez is clearly up in the air and his return to the Angels is far from a sure thing. If he does leave the club the Angels will have to decide what to do with the open role at closer. The team could look outside the organization and bring someone in, or they could go with veteran Scot Shields, who turned in yet another solid season (2.70 ERA, six wins, four saves in 63.1 IP). However, the club might also decide to hand over ninth inning duties to the team's best statistical weapon from the 2008 season, and that was Arredondo. Let's compare Arredondo's performance to that of K-Rod.

Arredondo: 1.65 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.11 K/9, 2.50 K/BB, .190 BAA, 0.44 HR/9
Rodriguez: 2.24 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10.14 K/9, 2.26 K/BB, .216 BAA, 0.52 HR/9

All told it is pretty clear that Arredondo - if you remove K-Rod's massive save total (62) - can be said to have performed better than Rodriguez did in 2008. Don't count on Jose vulturing another 10 wins out of the 'pen, but it is clear that if he is called upon to deliver a more substantial role in 2009 that he could rise to the challenge.