Year in Review – Florida Marlins

October 24, 2008 8:09am CDT

We will be taking a look at all 30 major league teams to see which hitters and pitchers failed, which excelled, and which youngsters you might want to keep in mind as you begin to prepare for your 2009 fantasy baseball draft.


HITTERS
Fantasy Flop - Josh Willingham .254-15-51-54-3 in 351 AB

With seemingly everyone on the club hitting at least 25 home runs, we chose to highlight Willingham, who fell to 15 home runs after hitting a total of 47 the previous two seasons. Truth be told, Willingham actually slightly increased his HR/F ratio in 2008 (13.3%) compared to 2007 (12.1%), but when you lose over 150 ABs due to injury, the overall numbers just don’t look good. Willingham hit just seven home runs in his last 71 games after hitting eight in his first 31, so it’s clear that his back injuries had a huge effect on his ability to drive the ball. Really, though, the decision to list him here is merely based on the sample size, as Willingham’s numbers only look poor because of the lost at-bats. Let’s compare his 2008 performance with his career mark to give you the flavor of what we mean.

HR/F: 13.3 % in ’08, 13.5% for career
BB/K: 0.59 in ’08, 0.53 for career
OBP: .364 in ’08, .361 for career
SLG: .470 in ’08, .472 for career
BABIP: .291 in ’08, .305 in career

If Willingham can just stay healthy in 2009, he should rebound just fine.


Fantasy Find - Jorge Cantu .277-29-95-92-6 in 628 AB

Raise your hand if you predicted Cantu would hit more home runs than Aramis Ramirez (27) and drive in more runs than Chipper Jones (75). Heck, raise your hand if you thought he would even rack up 400 ABs. Cantu went from a 115 at-bats in a 2007 season to being a potential fantasy MVP when all was said and done. For those of you that have forgotten, Cantu has done this before, as he burst onto the scene in 2005, hitting .286-28-117. Unfortunately, he slumped to .249-14-62 in 2006 before spending most of 2007 in the minors while splitting time with the Rays and the Reds. So why did Cantu turn things around this season? Honestly, the answer really was playing time. Like we did with Willingham above, let’s compare Cantu’s 2008 efforts to his career average.

HR/F: 12.3% in ’08, 11.8% for career
BB/K: 0.36 in ’08, 0.30 for career
OBP: .327 in ’08, .317 for career
SLG: .481 in ’08, .460 for career
BABIP: .297 in ;08, .304 for career

As you can see, it’s all about playing time, baby. And with that playing time, Cantu delivered impressive totals at the plate.

Youngster to Watch in ‘09 - John Baker .299-5-32-32-0 in 197 AB

John Baker was a big-time bat late in the year for the Marlins, and one you might have missed. Being just one hit from batting .300, Baker was actually much better than that down the stretch. After hitting just .204 in July, his first month with the Marlins, Baker batted .336 over his final 143 at-bats while driving in 21 runs and scoring 24 times in 44 games. In leagues that use two catchers, that type of performance is tremendous from a second catcher, and hence Baker was a big help to owners over the final two months. Baker, 27, had been stuck at Triple-A the past three seasons, but when he hit .321 with an .895 OPS in 193 at-bats at Albuquerque this year, he was brought up to the majors. Baker doesn’t figure to ever be a power hitter considering he has only 45 home runs in 2,100+ minor league at-bats, and the odds are also against him repeating his near .300 batting average in 2009 given his extremely high .375 BABIP mark and a far too high K% of 24.4%. However, if it appears he will receive consistent at-bats in ’09, he should be on your radar, though his upside might still be that of a second catcher.


PITCHERS
Fantasy Flop - Andrew Miller 6-10, 5.87 ERA, 89 K, 1.64 WHIP in 107.1 IP

Miller was a flop in 2008, but that shouldn’t have really been the case, as he simply isn’t yet ready for prime time. Now, this isn’t to say that the 6-foot-6 first round draft pick from 2006 isn’t a superb prospect with top-of-the-rotation ability; it’s merely an admission that his game hasn’t yet caught up to his stuff. Unfortunately, the fact he was in the Marlins trade with the Tigers that included Miguel Cabrera led many people to overestimate the potential impact of this former North Carolina star. Here are the facts: (1) Miller owns strikeout stuff with a 7.48 K/9 mark in the majors, a mark that mirrors his minor league number (7.65). (2) Miller keeps the ball in the yard, allowing just 0.35 HR/9 during his minor league career and a 0.59 mark in the majors. (3) Miller walks more batters than Daniel Cabrera with a 5.20 BB/9 mark in his major league career. No matter how good your stuff is, you simply cannot be successful walking anywhere near that many batters on a consistent basis unless you are Nolan Ryan. (4) As a result of all those walks, Miller owns a terrible 1.44 K/BB mark. (5) Miller has a terrible WHIP (1.68), thanks to all those walks and the fact he has permitted a .340 BABIP mark so far in his career with a pathetic LOB% of 63.4%. If not for his ability to keep the ball from flying out of the yard, his ratios would be even worse than what you currently see, and that is scary. Long term, the ceiling is very high (see his May performance 0 2.43 ERA, 1.08 WHIP 8.49 K/9 in five starts), but he has a long ways to go.

Fantasy Find - Ricky Nolasco 15-8, 3.52 ERA, 186 K, 1.10 WHIP in 212.1 IP

Wow is right. Nolasco pitched just 21.1 innings in 2007 because of injuries, so we would be shocked if he was drafted in even half of mixed leagues. Heck, he may not have even been drafted in some NL-only leagues. Yet, when all was said and done, he was one of the best starters in the National League. Other than a somewhat elevated HR/9 mark of 1.19, there really wasn’t anything that went wrong with Nolasco this year across the board. You want strikeouts? Check. He had 7.88 per nine innings. You want a guy who avoids walks? Check. He walked just 1.78, leading to a stupendous 4.43 K/BB mark. You want a pitcher who kept hitters off base? Check. He posted the second best WHIP in the NL to Cole Hamels (1.08), the ninth best BAA in the league at .239 and a .284 BABIP that was also ninth in the NL. Nolasco also went 14-6 from May 1st on and posted a 0.99 WHIP over his final 14 starts. He was clearly one of the breakout stars of the 2008 fantasy season.

Youngster to Watch in ‘09 - Chris Volstad 6-4, 2.88 ERA, 52 K, 1.33 WHIP in 84.1 IP

Volstad, the Marlins' first round pick in 2005, burst on the scene in July (2.38 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), and though he hit a bit of a road bump in August (3.74 ERA, 1.54 WHIP) he finished strong in September (2.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) in what can be called a terrific first season. Having never pitched above Double-A, there was some concern over how Volstad would perform in the majors after a minor league career that included a 3.40 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP and a 6.19 K/9 mark. The answer turned out to be even better than hoped, as he produced better numbers with the Marlins than he had in the minors. The 22-year-old righty, the best prospect in the Marlins system according to Baseball America, will clearly be in the Marlins starting rotation at the start of the 2009 season despite a couple of minor concerns. Volstad doesn’t strike out many batters (5.55 K/9) even dating back to his time in the minors, and he had a hard time throwing strikes at times with a 3.84 BB/9 mark, which was worse than the major league average of 3.39 in 2008. Fortunately, Volstad compensates for that condition by inducing a tremendous number of groundballs (1.86 G/F ratio) that enables him to keep the ball in the park (0.32 HR). Volstad also ended up with a very low .242 BAA, thanks in no small part to an equally low .282 BABIP, which leads one to think that 2009 could end up with batters stroking a few more hits off Volstad. If more batters reach base, and his 77.1% LOB mark regresses back towards the average of around 70%, then that ERA could rise a fair bit in 2009. The future is undoubtedly bright, but keep those expectations reasonable.