Year in Review – Detroit Tigers

October 20, 2008 4:07pm CDT

We will be taking a look around all 30 major league teams and see which players and pitchers failed, which excelled and which youngsters you might want to keep in mind as you begin to prepare for your 2009 Fantasy Baseball draft.

HITTERS

Fantasy Flop - Carlos Guillen
.286-10-54-68-9 in 420 AB

The move away from the rigors of playing shortstop was supposed to help Guillen remain healthy, but for the third time in six years he appeared in fewer than 115 games and hit only 50 percent of the home run total he averaged in 2006-07 while producing 40 RBI fewer than his average from the two previous seasons. Toss in a batting average of .286 that was his lowest mark since joining the Tigers in 2004, and it clearly wasn't a good season for Guillen. In total, Guillen produced three-year lows in average, OPS, runs, hits (120), doubles (29), triples (two), home runs, RBI and stolen bases. To be fair he also lost about 125 AB compared to his '06-'07 seasons, so his performance wasn't as awful as it first appears, though if we extrapolate his production to 550 AB it would still be his worst season - by far - in three years (.286-13-71-89-12). Carlos did produce a career best 0.90 BB/K mark that is borderline elite territory, and did produce the best BB percentage mark of his career (12.5 percent). If he continues to work the count, and can rebound from a five-year low in BABIP (.321), then he would seem to be a good bet to improve in 2008 if he can avoid the ever-present injury concerns.

Fantasy Find - Matt Joyce
.252-12-33-40-0 in 242 AB

Do we have to pick one with this squad? Given that the lineup was locked in from Day 1, there were few players who received anything resembling a substantial look in '08. The most successful of those players was Joyce, who played his way to some value in AL-only leagues thanks to his pop. However, he slowed tremendously as the season wore on, producing only two home runs and eight RBI in his final 48 games, and he flat-out disappeared in September (.163-0-0-6-0 in 49 AB). Pretty much devoid of any base-stealing speed and lacking the eye that is usually necessary to sustain a solid batting average (he posted a 0.48 K/BB mark), Joyce will have to continue to convert his fair share of fly balls into home runs (14.4 percent) to maintain much value. With the future of Gary Sheffield, Marcus Thames and perhaps even Magglio Ordonez in some doubt, it remains to be seen what type of role Joyce will find himself in for 2009.

Youngster to Watch in '09 - Dusty Ryan
.318-2-7-6-0 in 44 AB

The truth is the future doesn't look too bright in Detroit, in part because of the deals the team has made of late, including the one with the Marlins where they traded away potential phenom Cameron Maybin and others for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Therefore, we are kind of left with a best of the rest type deal, and in that vein let us introduce to you Dusty Ryan.

With Ivan Rodriguez no longer wearing a Tigers ball cap, Ryan will probably battle with Brandon Inge for the starter's role behind the plate next season (barring a trade or free agent singing of course). Inge is one of the most versatile players in the league, but he owns a career .237 batting average and .695 OPS, marks he failed to reach this season (.205/.672). That would seem to indicate that Ryan could get a shot after a brief but successful run in Detroit. Ryan owns a poor .237 average in the minors with 403 K in 381 games, so it is clear that he will not be a .300 hitter in the majors. Still, he has some pop, with 38 home runs and 59 doubles in that time, and at just 24-years-old he could be a useful AL-only part if he receives playing time in '09 after hitting 17 home runs with 63 RBI in 370 minor league at-bats in 2008.

PITCHERS

Fantasy Flop - Justin Verlander
11-17, 4.84 ERA, 163 K, 1.40 WHIP in 201 IP

Dontrelle Willis certainly deserves a shout out after a hideous 9.38 ERA, 2.21 WHIP and mind-bogglingly pitiful 0.51 K/BB mark, but he only lasted 24 innings on the season and didn't open the year with near the buzz that Verlander did.

On the surface of things it is easy to see just how disappointing Justin was. Verlander lost seven wins and 20 K from 2007 while producing an ERA that increased by 1.18 runs and a WHIP that went up 0.17 points. Verlander also saw his K/9 mark dip from 8.17 to 7.30, while his walk rate jumped by almost a full batter, from 2.99 per nine innings to 3.90, leading to a terrible fantasy performance. However, his effort was also a little vexing given some of his measurables. (1) Verlander lowered his HR/9 mark to 0.81, the best it has been in three years. (2) Verlander's BABIP was a career-worst at .305, but that was roughly .010 points better than his mark the previous two seasons (.293 and .294) so it really wasn't that far out of line with what should have been expected. (3) His HR/F mark of 7.0 percent was a three-year best. So why did he fail in 2008? Obviously the walks didn't help, he'll need to get that aspect of his game under control, and he will also need to work on his approach with runners on base because after back-to-back seasons of 78.3 percent and 74.9 percent in his LOB percentage mark. That number dipped all the way down to 65.4 percent in 2008.

Fantasy Find - Armando Galarraga
13-7, 3.73 ERA, 126 K, 1.19 WHIP in 178.2 IP

Galarraga entered the year with all of 8.2 innings of big league experience, but thankfully for the Tigers he was a member of their staff in '08, leading the unit in victories, ERA (amongst starters) and WHIP in a fantastic rookie season that caught most fantasy players completely by surprise. There was a whole bushel full of mixed leagues where he wasn't even drafted. Other than a terrible finish (1-3 with a 7.11 ERA in September), Armando was solid all year. In fact, he actually posted a WHIP in the 1.20s in May, June, July, August and September, a fairly impressive feat. Strangely enough, despite the solid ratios, not much of his performance really jumps off the page at you, as his K/9 (6.35) and K/BB (2.07) marks are merely solid. One warning sign that led to great numbers in 2008 but could mean a decrease in production in 2009 was his .247 BABIP mark, which was the third-best mark in all of baseball. Given his less than dominating pure stuff, a regression here seems likely, and more base runners usually equals more runs allowed, so keep that in mind this offseason.

Youngster to Watch in '09 - Joel Zumaya
0-2, 3.47 ERA, 22 K, 1.97 WHIP with one save in 23.1 IP

Zumaya has been injured two years running for the Tigers, and there are obviously a ton of questions revolving around that gifted right arm of his. In limited work this season Zumaya punched out nearly a batter per innings (8.49), but walked just as many batters (22) as he struck out, which was one of the major reasons his WHIP was in the stratosphere (1.97). In addition, even when he did find the strike zone, his BABIP mark was .324, which was uncharacteristically high for a guy who posted marks of .266 and .227 his first two seasons. Look, we could analyze all kinds of numbers here but the fact is that we, as well as the Tigers, just don't know how many bullets Zumaya has left in that arm. The good news is that he appears to have plenty, as his average fastball was over 97 mph this year, and given that he is still just 23 (he will be 24 in November) and pitching for an unsettled Tigers bullpen, there is a chance that he could remerge as a force in 2009 if he can just stay healthy.