Blogs

Jonathan Lopuch

Green Day?

July 13, 2007 8:54pm CDT

It was not long ago that Ahman Green was one of the most coveted fantasy commodities in the league. He had a very impressive five-year stretch from 2000-04 where he picked up 9,063 total yards and 61 touchdowns as the cornerstone of the Packers ground game. Fantasy football aficionados are often accused of having short memories, but I'm sure there are plenty of us out there that fondly remember Green's glory days and some may even believe there is one more big season left in his tank now that he's reunited with former head coach Mike Sherman. Any judging by some of the industry mocks I've seen, there are more Green backers than I realized. Allow me to dispel that myth with some frightening facts, placed in no particular order.

Green Won't Stay Healthy: Ahman has played an entire season only once since 2001, and although he's had only one year with fewer than 14 games, he's a guy who's failed to reach 290 carries four of his last five season. Running backs don't get more durable as they hit 30, which Green did this year, so I imagine the odds of Green taking over 300 carries this season just north of nil.

His Offensive Line Stinks: Other than Executive Editor/Former Tackle John Tuvey, there is no bigger advocate for the value of offensive lines here at Fanball World Headquarters than myself. As such, the Texans are an affront to everything I hold dear. No Houston player with more than 30 carries averaged greater than 4.1 yards per carry last season and no one who has led the Texans in rushing has ever gone for more than 4.3 yards per carry in that season. There is slight hope for the line if tackle Chris Spencer returns from his serious leg injury, but even then there just isn't enough talent or depth for me to believe they'll turn things around in one year.

Actually, The Entire Offense Stinks: The Texans picked up Matt Schuab over the offseason, but their change at quarterback isn't enough to jump start this offense. Houston has never ranked higher than 21st in points since coming into existence and only once have they been higher than 27th. Yardage isn't much easier for them to come by. This franchise has been in the top half of the league in that category only once in their history and that occurred in 2004. It also happens to be the only time they've been higher than 28th.

When I think of Green's prospects this season, the one thing that comes to mind is the fictional movie from the third season of "Seinfeld. It was called Prognosis Negative.

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