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Ted Carlson

Keeper Korner: Week 11

November 13, 2008 1:06pm CST

Back in Week 5, the Keeper Korner provided updated running back rankings for keeper and dynasty formats. Much has changed since then, and it’s a good time to revisit that listing. Unlike re-draft leagues, fantasy football owners in keeper and dynasty leagues need to weigh long-term worth in with the current rankings. Thus, the difference between an old Dawg like Jamal Lewis and a young, injured pup like Rashard Mendenhall isn’t a huge chasm as it is in re-draft formats.

This article is still focused on winning a championship in 2008, but many owners who’ve fallen to the bottom of their standings have switched their focuses to 2009. We attempt to juggle both views at this mid-way point of the campaign.

Notes: The numbers listed in parentheses is the current age, current dollar value, and current draft round. The dollar values and rounds are based on 12-team leagues and what might happen if a draft or auction took place today.

The No. 1 Backs
1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (23, $44, 1)
2. Marion Barber, Cowboys (25, $38, 1)
3. Frank Gore, 49ers (25, $37, 1)
4. Michael Turner, Falcons (26, $35, 1)
5. Chris Johnson, Titans (23, $33, 1)
6. Clinton Portis, Redskins (27, $31, 1)
7. Steven Jackson, Rams (25, $30, 1)
8. Matt Forte, Bears (22, $30, 1)
9. Marshawn Lynch, Bills (22, $28, 1-2)
10. Brian Westbrook, Eagles (29, $26, 1-2)
11. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (29, $25, 1-2)
12. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (23, $23, 2)

Ted’s Take: As you can see, I’m under the impression that Peterson has a sizable lead on the keeper pack right now. That was the only easy ranking in this top-12. I urge readers to ask themselves, “If I was in a keeper draft today…” and apply that thinking to the rankings. There are some very, very tough calls. In particular, I wavered on the two rookies (Johnson, Forte). They’ve still only put in a half-season of NFL work. Am I being too generous with Johnson? Is Forte not high enough? Am I too harsh with LT? Was I too nice with Barber, Jackson and Lynch, all of whom have struggled recently? Questions, questions, questions. Feel free to debate amongst yourselves.

The No. 2 Backs
13. Joseph Addai, Colts (25, $23, 2)
14. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins (26, $22, 2)
15. Brandon Jacobs, Giants (26, $20, 2-3)
16. Reggie Bush, Saints (23, $18, 2-3)
17. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (21, $16, 3)
18. Ryan Grant, Packers (25, $15, 3)
19. Steve Slaton, Texans (22, $14, 3)
20. Tim Hightower, Cardinals (22, $13, 3)
21. Darren McFadden, Raiders (21, $12, 3-4)
22. Willie Parker, Steelers (28, $10, 4)
23. Larry Johnson, Chiefs (28, $10, 4)
24. LenDale White, Titans (23, $10, 4)

Can Steve Slaton hold up in the second half?
Ted’s Take: I’m down just enough on Addai to push him to this second group. Really, though, I feel like there is a top-13. I’m little shaky on Grant because it seems like Mike McCarthy is intent on running him into the ground as quickly as possible, but I’d still take Ryan over that pack of rookies. Gary Kubiak has openly admitted that Slaton isn’t currently able to stand up to a full NFL season, and we have obvious questions about Hightower and McFadden in lead roles. I don’t really want Parker or LJ in a keeper scenario, but both veterans could help the rest of 2008 and might be a decent bargain at $10 in 2009. White is a solid No. 3 back. Unfortunately, he makes it onto the No. 2 list.

The No. 3 Backs
25. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers (25, $9, 4)
26. Thomas Jones, Jets (30, $9, 5)
27. Kevin Smith, Lions (21, $8, 5)
28. Jamal Lewis, Browns (29, $7, 5)
29. Willis McGahee, Ravens (26, $7, 5-6)
30. Earnest Graham, Buccaneers (28, $6, 6)
31. Ray Rice, Ravens (21, $6, 6)
32. Derrick Ward, Giants (28, $5, 6)
33. Laurence Maroney, Patriots (23, $5, 6)
34. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers (21, $5, 6)
35. Cedric Benson, Bengals (25, $4, 6-7)
36. Ryan Torain, Broncos (22, $4, 7)

Ted’s Take: The Lions haven’t made it easy for us to figure out if Smith is worth banking on, but it looks like we’ll find out a lot more over the second half. I wouldn’t fault anyone if they’d rather have Rice than McGahee in a keeper league. That’s a messy situation. Ward is a free agent after this year and could find a starting job in 2009. I figure that possibility is worth as much as gambling on Maroney or Mendenhall. Like everyone else who isn’t an immediate family member, I’m not a Benson fan, but he is running with a starting job right now. Torain? I don’t know. That could easily be a wasted four bucks, but who else do the Broncos have?


The No. 4 Backs
37. Felix Jones, Cowboys (21, $4, 7)
38. Jerious Norwood, Falcons (25, $3, 7)
39. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers (26, $3, 7)
40. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots (23, $3, 7-8)
41. Julius Jones, Seahawks (27, $2, 7-8)
42. Justin Fargas, Raiders (28, $2, 8)
43. Mewelde Moore, Steelers (26, $2, 8)
44. Leon Washington, Jets (26, $2, 8)
45. Le’Ron McClain, Ravens (23, $2, 8-9)
46. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs (21, $1, 9)
47. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants (22, $1, 10)
48. Deuce McAllister, Saints (29, $1, 10)

Ted’s Take: As with Ward above, Norwood seems like a guy who will have a shot at a starting job somewhere down the line. He is locked into the Falcons through 2009, though. I’m on the fence about Green-Ellis, but Belichick is likely to stick with what works and the rookie is running well. The rest of this list? Fargas, Moore and McAllister probably don’t have much value beyond the next seven weeks, but that’s still a priority. And these other guys represent some educated guesses at future value.

Who dropped out of this list between Week 5 and now? Chris Perry, Edgerrin James, Michael Bush, Selvin Young, Fred Taylor, Chester Taylor, and Pierre Thomas were all in my previous top-48 list. Fred and Chester have just as much value as Deuce at this point, but I stuck with McAllister.

Hopefully this article helps keeper and dynasty owners assess their rosters and see where they might find value in their leagues. Of course, if the rankings shifted so much between Week 5 and Week 10, you can bet we’ll see some more notable differences by the end of December.

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